Calder / Summer 2012
May 2012
Tuesday May 2 - It's Derby Week!
I was willing to dismiss my one-win performance Saturday, Opening Night due to the terrible weather changing the track conditions and leading to three scratches of my picks. And, though I'm not ever "ok" with not cashing tickets, I was "ok" with the Churchill results on Saturday as I cashed fifteen tickets on the day and made nearly $100 in profit! So, I was very interested in doing well today as we started Derby Week. When I handicapped the 4th race I immediately saw the pick....he just leaped off the page to me.....Ready's Rocket. I had been on board for several of his wins last year, including his career 10th win under the Twin Spires when he set the mark for most wins by a single horse at the Downs. His form had been ok since the close of Churchill, but you knew he'd be on his toes today. What made the bet even more appealing to me was the fact that there was a horse in the race who was - on paper - the obvious chalk. Sure enough when they went to post the other - my second choice - was sent off at odds-on: 3/5. But amazingly in spite of having Calvin Borel, who OWNS Churchill on board the all-time leading winner at Churchill Downs who looked to be on the lead and long gone, somehow the crowd let him go off at 3/1. Even before the gate latch sprung open I was hoping my Facebook followers had seen my post when I told "the world" about my "BEST" of the day. Well, Ready's Rocket literally - as announcer Mark Johnson called it - "LAUNCHED" out of the gate and was two lengths in front in the first twenty yards. He was never threatened and was jogging under wraps under the wire. You can see in the photo Borel looking for competition. Somehow the mutual was $8.80 and I collected $66! WHOOO HOOOO! I knew that even if I didn't cash another ticket I was a winner on the day. But in the finale I doubled the bet on My Zipper who was facing nw2L for the first time. I even remarked that he was allowed to go off at 5/2. It was a head-bobbing finish, but I WON! Collected $38 to make it a plus $50 profit on the day! Today was the post position draw for the Oaks so this afternoon the past performances for Friday were available. So I went through - referred to my early analysis for the stakes races - and made my picks for Friday. They are now online. I think I'm going to have a VERY good day Friday!
Tuesday May 2 - It's Derby Week!
My "best" on Opening Night was Plasma Beam who was part of an entry. He scratched out of that spot and I did NOT like the entry mate so I passed the race. I was happy to see him in the entries for this afternoon and again made him my "best." The outcome was never in doubt as he tracked the leader well in hand and then ran by him under wraps throughout the length of the stretch. He was a very short price, but based on his chances of winning they were "fair odds." Great start to the day. I was a late running 4th in the next race, but came right back with my second winner when JC's Dream blew by his rivals in mid-stretch. He had never started for a tag so that gave him a big edge over the rest of his rivals today and it showed in his odds and in the finish. Toastmaster was a juicy 9/1 in the 6th but stumbled at the break.....never a factor. My last two selections were both on the turf. I thought the field in the 7th was a very well matched field. But I went with Warm Hugs for two reasons. First, while everyone had hit the mid-80s on the Beyer scale Warm Hugs had hit that in four straight races, so I figured he was a much more likely candidate to run to his figures. But what I liked best of all was that in his last race the final fraction was a quick :24.4 seconds and Warm Hugs had made up NINE LENGTHS while passing eight rivals. A finish like that and she was going to win. As they moved down the back stretch she was sitting in a comfortable pocket in fifth. She moved three wide and when the running started to the wire she ran right by everyone, finishing under a hand ride. The pay off of $6.80 yielded a payout to me of $34.00! So for the day I finished 3-for-6 and another profitable day! Tomorrow I will make my selections online and then board a plane for Columbus....pick up my Mom and drive to Louisville for DERBY WEEKEND! WHOOOO HOOOOOO!
Wednesday May 3 - Off to Louisville!
I was up until after midnight last night handicapping the Derby Day card and printing them off for everyone. And the alarm came early as I was up by 5 am to be ready to leave at 5:45 and get to the airport by 6:15 and my flight to Newark took off about 7:50. I had about a 40 minute delay there, and then arrived in Columbus about 2 pm. Wait..... thought I was going to Louisville! Well when I looked for flights it was going to be about $600 to fly to Louisville and about $250 to rent a car. If I flew to Columbus, rented a car and then drove my Mom down to Louisville the flight was about $250 and the car less than a hundred! We arrived at my cousin's Roz house - my favorite house of all time - 225 Pleasantview, see below - about 7 pm. I watched the replays from today's races and had an "ok" day. Scored in two of the first three when Sharilyn Jean was a handy winner at 7/5 in the 2nd and then Onepointhreekarats was easily best in the 4th. My one and only double bet was coasting on the front end when she pulled up and didn't finish. Didn't cash in the last three so I was 2-for-7 today, little less than 30% and it was ok to "come back to reality after two big days. But..... I am really happy with my handicapping selections for the weekend and I will be surprised if I don't write after the weekend about my excellent weekend of racing. The first race tomorrow, Oaks Day is at 10:30 so my Mom and I will head out to Churchill Downs about 9:30 am. Shelby and Jules should meet us there around noon. GOOD TIMES AHEAD!
Friday - Saturday May 4 / 5: Derby Weekend!
What a super weekend! At right you see our Derby adventure group (my sister Laurie, my daughter Julie, me; my niece Khloe, my Mom, and Jules' friend Shelby. We were about to set out for Churchill Downs for Derby Day from my cousin Roz's home. Check out my Derby Weekend experience by following this link:
Thursday May 10 - Back to Summer Racing.......
Even Jill Byrne and Mark Johnston in their opening remarks before the opening race that the Derby weekend is over and "it's back to the spring meeting" today. The spring meet is nothing to sneeze at, but without question the highlight has to be the Derby weekend. When I handicapped the day's races I remarked in my analysis, "What is today, the maiden-juvenile sprint day?" as the first three races were all two-year-old maiden sprints. In all three there were Wesley Ward-trained runners and I went with them back-to-back-to-back. In the opener I was hopeful of a fair price when the entry was the 3/5 favorite in the early wagering and Walkin In A Shadow was 5/2. But by post time the crowd had corrected their earlier betting strategy....too bad, I would have been happy to take their money! Just as most Ward juveniles do, Shadow broke sharply from the rail and was never threatened! I doubled the bet in the 2nd as Handsome Jack was dropping from MSW in for a tag. Easy-peasy-pie! In the third I got the fair price I was looking for, 3/1 on Fierce, but he was just nipped at the wire. I missed in the 5th when Evanscourt ran true to his form - he'd either win easily or finish far back......sadly it was far back today :( I posted my "BEST" of the Day on Facebook and sure enough, Sacred Success romped home in the 4th at Belmont. WIth that winner I had scored with four of my first five selections and I thought I was on my way to a very nice profit for the day........not so fast my friend. I only won with one of my last eight. Still a nice winning percent, but not the profit I was looking for.
I scored with Emily Allstar at Belmont in the 2nd - another chalk winner, but another easy winner. In the 7th, my final betting selection on the day at Churchill Downs, Homerun Berti easily wired the field! Horray! I finished three-for-five today under the Twin Spires made a small profit in spite of all my winners being odds-on there. That was my final winning selection as I missed at Belmont when Travelin Man was dead last in an overnight stakes - perhaps he truly is simply a Gulfstream horse; And I ran 6th, 2nd, and 8th at Hollywood. So for the day I was five-for-thirteen, a nice 38%, but with all the chalk - and odds-on at that, I came out behind for the day :(
Friday May 11
A single winner today - two photo finishes that would have made the day a winning one had the head bobs gone the other way. Finished the day with four price plays none of which even hit the board. Interesting that in the seven races I had investments I had the winner listed in my selections SIX times! All around it, but didn't cash many other than Tater Downs in the 5th.
Saturday May 12 - THIRTEEN WINNERS!
After a slow start today was a wonderful day at Calder. By the time I left for home I'd cashed FOUR winning tickets at Calder, FOUR winning tickets at Churchill Downs, won SIX stakes races, and cashed in on THIRTEEN winning selections overall. I had a profitable day at Churchill Downs (the focus of the early summer season) but in spite of winning nearly a third of my selections I ended up in the red overall for the day. I was ok with that because all my winners were 2/1 or less - just ONE of the price plays would have made a difference.....I was in front at 15/1 and finished 3rd once, led into the far turn at 9/1 and faded, looked to be making a winning move out of the turn into the stretch at 9/2 and ran evenly for 3rd, and then in my last four selections of the day at Hollywood I was 2nd twice and 3rd twice - any combination of two winners would have made me a winner on the day. I
cashed right away with my first pick when School's Out (appropriate for this time of year) was a handy winner in the opener at Churchill. I then missed on SIX in a row. Even my teller friend said as I made the 7th bet in the string, "Let's get some winners!" - Indeed I replied! I rattled off two daylight winners when Aiden's Lil Devil led the 3rd gate to wire without anyone in sight and then Ill Considered matched that in the 4th race! Whoo Hoo! I won the first of three stakes at Belmont when Currency Swap was MUCH the best in the You an Stakes, marking his return to the races. I had doubled the bet on him and probably should have gone in much deeper considering the make up of the field. But he was coming off a break and I wasn't sure how ready he'd be for a listed stakes. I scored at Churchill when One Last Nitemare was TONS the best - again, I should have upped the bet when I saw the odds were 2/1, he just looked overpowering to me and was at an inflated 2/1. The 5th at Calder was an allowance, non-winners of 3 lifetime. My pick was Csaba who had been my pick in the Calder Derby. That race came off the turf and he was not nearly as effective. So today when the 5th came off I briefly considered cancelling the bet. But when I re-looked at the pp's for the field, and noted not only was he dropping out of three straight stakes but top rider Luis Saez was on board, I held tight to the bet....a double investment. The track had seemed to play to speed all day and Saez took him right to the front.....LONG GONE! Another $30 return :) I scored again at Churchill when Delaunay slipped through on the rail, looked to be opening up, but could not shake the longshot on his outside. It was a head-bobbing stretch duel and I thought I'd won. Showed it in slow-motion and I indeed got the bob.....whew. Then it was time for the Genuine Devotion Stakes at Belmont. This was going six panels on the turf and I thought Going to Kukaro would wire them at a fair price from the rail. Well, there were a couple of scratches and everyone saw what I saw.....he went off at 6/5 instead of his morning line of 4/1 :( Right to the front and clear by daylight heading into the final furlong. But then the closers were coming. I thought I'd judged the line correctly and we'd hold on, but it was OOOOHHHHH SOOOOOO CLOSE! After looking at it for several minutes his number went up! Horray, another double investment winner! I got my first winner of the summer at Monmouth - today was their Opening Day. More Than Candy had suddenly posted back-to-back 90+ Beyers in his last two when loose on the lead. He had the rail and I thought a similar scenario could unfold. It did, but going 8 1/2 furlongs, what was he thinking going :45 and change for the half???? As they turned for home he was well in front, but tiring. JUST lasted......whew, again!
One of my favorite turf sprinters is Wild About Marie, but she'd disappointed in her last two - one of them when I was in New Orleans to see her live. But today I thought she'd get a great set-up to win Churchill's feature, the Unbridled Sydney - and she did at a juicy 3/1. So wish I'd had the confidence to bet her big. Came right back and nailed Fort Loudon in Calder's In Summation Stakes. He was pounded on the board down to 2/5, and he was dominant in spite of a layoff and turning back from three graded route races at Gulfstream. I missed in four races at four different tracks and then it was time for the two national features - the Grade 3 Laz Berrea at Hollywood and the Grade 2 Peter Pan at Belmont. The Berrea only had five runners and two of them were Baffert runners. Drill was my "BEST" at Hollywood for the day as he was unbeaten at today's seven furlongs. Even Baffert remarked in the form that every time they had tried two-turns with him he'd disappointed....."he's a sprinter." And that was my take. He was blocked and had to wait to split horses, but he was easily best! Three minutes later the Belmont feature went off. The front runners set insane fractions of :45 and change for a NINE furlong race - even given it was a one-turn route at Belmont's huge oval, this was just handing the race to the finishers. Mark Valeski - who had been entered in the Derby but not working up to trainer Larry Jones' standards - was sitting back waiting. He had been working super at Belmont and he unleashed a sweeping five-wide move to inhale the field and run away. HORRAY! I am pretty certain I'd have won the feature at Monmouth when Zero Rate Policy was on the lead midway through the turn, but she tripped and fell. Luckily she and the rider were ok. Only four horses finished the race! I left ahead for the day with six tickets in my pocket. I figured a win in one would make it about an "even" day - two or more and I'd have a nice profit. Three seconds and two thirds and my profit disappeared to a small loss on the day. But it was a great day for handicapping and on track I was winner :)
Sunday May 13 - You NEVER know where the next winner is!
Today was Mother's Day and Brad and I spent the day pampering out sweetie. But, it was a racing day so I made my selections this morning. There was a single scratch and no track conditions available so I didn't think anything about the fact that my runner was a turf runner. But later in the day I saw that the track conditions were "SLOPPY" and we were off the turf. I wondered if I should go back and revisit the past performances because I had a PRIME time play today. But I decided to leave well enough alone.....if the trainer left them in, then I wasn't changing. Well, maybe I should have looked again! Apparently the crowd saw what I saw as my first selection - a double investment went off at 3/5! However Ninety Five South was forever getting in gear and was a late running second. In the 5th it was my Prime Play. Favorite Flavor went off at 7/5 and was tracking the pace in fifth - but speed seemed to be holding so I was already a bit worried. As they turned for home and the rider asked, he got nothing. A well-beaten seventh. When I opened the next race I saw my pick Salsa Kitty was a big 7/1 on the board.......maybe in one fell swoop I'd have a winning day. As they hit the turn I was third and had all the momentum. The 5/2 favorite - my second choice - had opened up on her pace rival but Salsa Kitty was breathing down her neck. By the furlong pole I'd collared the leader and now it was just a question of how far I'd be clear. BY DAYLIGHT! The toteboard lit up at $16.80.....with my minimum investment I collected $42.00! In the last investment of the day my runner was 23/1.....could it be? - No. Quickly I trailed the field and made up very little ground. But for the day I'd profited :)
Thursday May 17 - I rally to W-I-N!!!!!!!!!
When I put together my sheet for today my first thought was that I was not very selective about my picks as I had selections all over nearly every card I'd handicapped. But, I thought that I had good picks with legitimate chances. The very first race was from Churchill and it set the town for the majority of the day; I had a Wesley Ward first timer in a 2yo MSW race....broke right on top, looked long gone and then was run down, second. In my next selection - on track at Calder - I had the closer trying to rally against the lone speed, too late for second! This repeated itself over and over. Six more times I had the wrong one - the lone speed or the closer. Sigh......frustrating. But ironically I felt pretty good about my handicapping all day. My first winner came, ironically, wire-to-wire in the 2nd at Churchill Downs. Donoharm had run his best races here and in route races. I was surprised, and a bit concerned when he didn't appear in Jill Byrne's top three. But in this case I was the one who was right and he was easily best, paying a nice $7.20. My next score came at Belmont where I thought I was thinking outside the box with Last Minute Rose. I knew she'd be the favorite, but I thought many would jump off today......... She had repeatedly set the pace to mid-stretch and stopped. I thought on the class drop she'd hang on today, and that maybe I'd get even money. Was lucky to get 1/4. She did shorten stride late, but held on.....whew! After missing on five (two 2nds, three 3rds) it was time for my BEST of the day. I even posted on Facebook that Beloveda should "romp" in here today. Termed the race the "Free Money Fourth!" Well, even in mid-stretch the Grade 3 placed filly was really working to reel in the speed; but in the end I won :) Two more front-runners were clear on the lead and faded before a closer was too late at Finger Lakes - wow. Then I finally got a winner at Pimlico. I played the Maryland track today in anticipation of this weekend......tomorrow is Black Eyed Susan Day and Saturday is the Preakness! In the 4th at Pimlico Video Storm had won her 2-year-old debut by daylight, then was DQ'd. Right back I thought! 
There was some bumping at the beginning and I kept waiting for an "INQUIRY" sign to go up, but instead it was official! HORRAY!
The very next race on my selection sheet was live at Calder. It was a non-winners of 2-lifetime and none of the runners looked threatening to me, so I went with a last-out maiden winner who exited a KEY race: Carolina Lizard. What first draw me to him was that the runner-up, Ill Considered had won Saturday for me by a country mile! As they turned down the backside I was thinking I had a really good chance because "Lizard" was right outside the longshot front-runner and they had separated themselves from the field. As they turned for home She had something left and was clear on the wire. The best part.......she went off at 7/1 and paid a whopping $17.60....now THAT helps the profit line for the day :)
I went wire-to-wire in the 6th at Finger Lakes and seemed to be on a roll............
But then I missed on seven in a row - only two in-the-money finishes. My last "live bet" before heading home was DRF Mike Welsch's "BEST" of the Day at Calder - The Chill Zone in the finale at Calder. I looked at the board a couple of times and I thought I was 4/5. But with a couple of minutes to go I noticed the odds-on favorite was the #9 and my horse was the #5......I was 8/5 and with a triple investment I might get some of my money back for the day. By the time I walked out to watch the race The Chill Zone had been bet down to 6/5. But when they left the gate she was all the way up to 2/1!
The Chill Zone was my third winner at Calder - note I'd gone to get my Saratoga "rain jacket" as the storms were beginning to look ominous! I collected over $50 and knew I'd closed the gap on the red ink for the day. I had gone a mere 7-for-28, with 11 others running first or second. Sigh.....but the last win had brought me within striking distance of breaking even. But more realistically as I left I thought I'd lost some money for the day, nothing significant, and I'd had a good day. As I said earlier I felt good about my handicapping as my "BEST of the DAY" had come through and I had scored in two triple bets in two other races (Belmont and the finale at Calder).
I only had three remaining bets, all at Hollywood, and I mentally calculated I needed to probably win two of three to break even unless there was something unusual. Later in watching the replays the 3rd saw me easily surge to the lead at 7/5, then get run down late.....man this story is getting old! But in the fifth Sizzling Gold stalked the pace and drew away sprinting on the turf. Doubled the bet and got back over $30! OK, so it all comes down to the last race of the day......typical! And so they went into the gate for the final bet of the day. It was the featured 7th at Hollywood..... 1 1/4 miles on the turf. The DRF had focused on a horse that I didn't like. I looked at the field and I thougth Danderek looked loose on the lead. He'd been run down by one of today's rivals in his last, but today he looked to be all, and I mean A-L-L alone on the lead. As the gates sprung open he popped out and made the lead easily. The odds flashed up and he was a juicy 5/1! The opening quarter was :25 and change - oh how delightful, they are walking! The half in a pokey :50 and change. Now the pressers came to Danderek as they hit the turn. For all handicappers who have ever had a front-runner, you know there are two critical points..... first, when they hit the turn you need to either gain a little separation or at least not let anyone cut into the lead. CHECK! Danderek accelerated and opened up about a length and a half. They turned for home and here's the most critical point - your front-runner HAS to have one last surge of energy once they straighten for home.....you don't want to be hanging on! Sure enough Danderek had plenty left and actually opened up! He paid an even $12 on a $2 ticket - but I had a $10 ticket....that mean I was collecting $60 big ones! And with that, I am a WINNER on the day!
31 selections / 9 WINS (29%) and a clear profit of nearly $25! Looking forward to tomorrow's Black Eyed Susan Day and then the Preakness on Saturday. Could I have seen the first Triple Crown winner in thirty years two weeks ago when I was at Churchill Downs on Derby Day? I so want a Triple Crown Winner for the sport and all the passionate fans like me!
Friday May 18: Black Eyed Susan Day!- Six-for-Fourteen with THREE Stakes WINS!
As it turns out, I wish that I'd been as successful on Oaks Day as I was today on Black Eyed Susan Day for all my ladies. But hey, that's racing! I started off on the right foot when Bold Affair loomed boldly through the turn and then swept by the front runners easily to win the Skipat Stakes at Pimlico! Next up Red Ace was easily best in the opener at Churchill, romping home wire to wire. I was very happy to get 1/2 since he'd been at 1/5 as they got in the gate. I missed in five straight including three stakes at Pimlico. Millionreasonswhy was a best of the rest 2nd to the odds-on chalk I was happy to bet against. Then in my "BEST" of the day Mamma Kimbo failed to handle the 9 furlongs of the Black Eyed Susan. If I'd seen the interview with Bob Baffert before the bet I probably wouldn't have bet her - he was HOPEFUL she'd get the distance....not a ringing endorsement. Then in the 5th at Churchill Adena's Chance was WAY back as they turned for home.....JUST up in time! Kim and I went to dinner and when I came back I saw Jazzy Idea be second best in the Very One Stakes. But then it was time for the Pimlico Special replay. Because it had happened within the hour the odds were not posted. I was certain that my pick, Alternation was either the chalk or the second favorite. He was rating in fifth down the backstretch, but when he moved into fourth I saw his odds - an amazing 4/1! He was wide off the turn but I never doubted he get to the winner. I did have nervous moments through the stretch as Nehro ran at him. Literally one bob before or after the wire and I'd be writing about how I missed. But instead I got back a handsome $50+ payout! 
It was a good 35 minutes after the 9th at Churchill, but the replay wasn't up on twinspires.com. So I went to churchilldowns.com and they show the result right beside the video. I saw I'd won - HORRAY! But the video wasn't available. So I started to work on my journal. After a bit I went to watch the video and fast forwarded to the slow-motion stretch run to grab a picture of my winning horse. I was in front as the slo-mo started, but then I was second! What the?????? Then a Steward's Inquiry. I watched the first two replays and saw nothing, yet I knew they were going to take down the #2 because I'd seen the result. Then I saw it in the head-on......see how the inside horse, #2-Chill, seems to be trying to bite the head off of my horse? At first I thought that can't be it, but as they showed it again and again Chill was not leaning over and whispering sweet nothings, she literally was trying to bite her! See the official chart below as they termed it, Chill tried to "savage" my horse! Regardless, my third winner on the day and a nice profit!
Saturday May 19: Preakness Day!SEVENTEEN Winners - I nail the Preakness winner for 2nd year in a row!
It was back to Pimlico for their 2nd, a starter allowance going two turns and I thought I'd get a little better price on Bailey's Beach than 3/5, but realistically he deserved the low odds. He'd won back to back races in allowance-optional claiming company, and today he was racing in the super low class of starter handicap for a mere $7.5K. I tripled the bet and he was a daylight winner under a hand ride! The fourth race in the sequence was the first of the graded stakes from Pimlico. This one was the Grade 3 Galorette going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf. Grade 1 winner Zagora looked MUCH the best with these on paper. I was hoping that many bettors would pass on her based on her poor effort last time in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland. But I'd seen that race and the front runner was loose on a dawdling lead giving the one run closing Zagora little chance. Still, I had some lingering doubts that perhaps she'd tailed off since 2011. So I only doubled the bet - she was a daylight winner! The Galorette went off at 11:30 am and I had promised my good buddy Jeff Nelson that I'd stop by Cypress Bay High, where he was working this morning to pick up some cash from him to invest on some of the big races today. So I made my bet on the 4th at Pimlico and headed out. I was lucky because at Pimlico they were running a special Arabian horse race inbetween the 3rd and the 4th so I wasn't missing any races other than the 4th. When I got to "the Bay" we reviewed all my stakes picks, and in particular Jeff asked me about my Preakness analysis. I was adamant that I was convinced I'll Have Another would run down Bodemeister today. So he gave me $100 to bet - split evenly win-place on that one. And he gave me another Ben Franklin split three ways on three other selections in stakes races for the day. I set out for Calder and got there JUST in time to beat the pouring rain! I was talking to my son Jeff as I went in that last year on Preakness Day I had 22 wins - the best day of the summer, and wondered if today could even come close!
I didn't see Paynter win live, but I saw the replay and my $20 bet on him only yielded $22.00 - but as I have often said.....as much as I would like to be a big profit winner, I enjoy the being right, and especially when I invest more because I am convinced I am right!
The first live race and live bet on track was a triple investment and I glided to the lead - literally in the Calder slop - only to be run down in mid-stretch. What the heck is this, a non-winner! After losing twice more when I led into the stretch and checked in mid-stretch, I scored at Churchill. I went another three races before I scored with Street Brawl (see above right) at Belmont. This guy had been a first-time winner for Todd Pletcher - no shocker there - but he'd paid $12+. He fit the profile of a star in the making, but I was leery that he wasn't well-bet for his debut. Still, I invested and he won at 8/5. Not without drama though as there was a bit of bumping between he and the second choice/runner-up at the head of the lane and then an inquiry. But my number stayed up!
I missed at Churchill - 3rd - but then thought I had a "sure thing" at Hollywood where Sister Moon was the lone speed on the rail in a five horse field in the Grade 3 Railbird. Went off at a paltry 1-9 and couldn't hang on! WOW, that doesn't happen much.....at 1-9? But I got right back into the winner's circle at Calder where I nailed first time starter I Ain't Gonna Lie To You. He had the top jockey, Luis Saez and sharp works for his debut. He shot out of the gate and splashed home by open lengths. The best part..... he paid $9.80 to win!
Missed, when 4th at Pimlico in the Grade 3 Maryland Sprint Handicap but scored with a double investment at Churchill to balance the ledger. I spent the next hour in a one-for-six spell and began to wonder if my "typical 30%" winners was going to catch up with me after the phenomenal start. But I took off on a three race win streak to dispell that notion in the Grade 2 Dupont Distaff. I like Awesomemundo to win, but even more so when I read that trainer Bob Baffert said he would be pointing her to the Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic with a win today. He must think she's ultra-talented. It was one of MANY thrilling finishes on the day - made even more so by the fact that I WON! She only paid $4.80, but I didn't care - I had it! Immediately afterwards I got my next price winner when I tabbed Voodoo Daddy in the 9th at Churchill Downs. This was an allowance sprint, and if I do say so myself it was a nice piece of handicapping....... Typically in turf races you look for proven ability on the turf, especially in turf sprints. Well, the field had a combined two turf sprint wins so it seemed ripe for an upset. Voodoo Daddy had missed by a nose in a sophomore stake at Keeneland - a synthetic surface that plays like turf - and I thought that would give him an edge. He wired the field handily, drawing off through the lane and paid a generous $12.00! WHOO HOOO!
The final win in the sequence was my BEST of the Day in New York. I loved Saginaw, and though I knew he wouldn't pay much I made him a prime bet. My buddy Jeff was along for the ride as well. Saginaw rated off the pace and then moved effortlessly to the front runner as they turned for home. Any thoughts that THIS would be an exciting race were over when Saginaw drew off without urging and won by double digits without ever being asked for his best! It was a solid pay-day for backing an obvious favorite. Yet another example of how I think it's smarter to back the winner than to "play for a price!"
It was now after 5 pm and post time for the Preakness was about 6:20, so I was closing out my "live" races. I had selected Straight Story - 10/1 on the morning line - to steal the Grade 2 Dixie at Pimlico on the turf. He went off at a juicy 8/1 and led into the stretch. Had a 16/1 longshot not pushed him through the turn I truly think he'd have won, but he was a fading 6th - both Jeff and I lost. At Churchill Downs I had a horse-for-the-course (she was 0-for-23 at all over tracks and 3-for-7 here). But she could only manage 5th to the odds-on runner, who I did NOT like.
The last race I was going to bet live and watch live was the 11th at Calder. Sassy Q looked like the lone speed in a non-winners of two lifetime. This pace advantage looked to be enhanced by the wet track and top jockey Luis Saez. RIght to the front, but after the opening quarter a longshot came to duel. Saez smartly let him go on with it and rated just off his shoulder. On the turn he said go and Sassy Q took off. I had a few anxious moments as he drifted wider and wider through the lane, but still plenty good to win with my double investment! I hustled home down the turnpike and Interstate and pulled up with ten minutes to post for the Preakness, just in time to see the post parade. Here was my analysis of the Preakness:
I think Bodemeister, at this point is afragile colt, who did not race at two and does not have a foundation like his peers, will be racing today for the third time in just five weeks! That would be difficult to handle under any circumstances, but throw in the fact that two back he had a career best 108 Beyer, an almost certain sign of a next-race bounce back to “normalcy.” And though his speed figure did decline, consider that his “bounce” race was setting HISTORIC pace fractions in the 1 ¼ mile Kentucky Derby, only to be beaten late in a heart-breaker. Given this was not the plan, that this will be the third big effort in five weeks, and coming off two HUGE efforts, I think the warning signs are just screaming at handicappers to avoid this favorite. Yet I see him being odds on today. The winner will in fact be (9) I’LL HAVE ANOTHER who will keep alive the dream of all thoroughbred fans of a Triple Crown winner. Without the faults of his rivals today, I believe that I’ll Have Another can stand on his own merits as the most likely winner in here. Throw in the reasons the others will NOT win and I think it’s pretty obvious that he WILL win. First, I think that the vast, vast majority of racing fans and sadly handicappers, are under the impression that I’ll Have Another is a deep closer and as such his running style will be his undoing today as Bodemeister looks to have a much more comfortable front-end trip and Pimlico is typically speed favoring, especially on Preakness Day. But hey, have you looked at I’ll Have Another’s past performances? Wire to wire in his debut; wire to tiring 2nd in his first try against winners, a Grade 2. Toss the sloppy try at Saratoga. Pace pressing win in his sophomore debut in the Grade 2 Bob Lewis when never more than 1 ½ off the leader; pace pressing win in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby when never more than 2 ½ off the lead. In fact, I would wager you that if offered the chance to back the Santa Anita Derby winner in the Kentucky Derby KNOWING he’d have to change styles and come from eight lengths back you never would have taken that bet – nor would I! Unlike Bodemeister he is lightly raced. He debuted in February off a layoff of five month break, then was off nine weeks before taking down the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and then the Kentucky Derby. On to New York and the Triple Crown!
As they left the gate Bodemeister went right to the front and I'll Have Another was tracking him. As they rounded the first turn Kim asked if I was happy with the start and I said I was delighted because my main fear was that I'll Have Another would track Bodemeister, put him away and be run down by Creative Cause. But Creative Cause was tracking the leader and I was sitting comfortably third. As they hit the far turn I thought jockey Mario Gutierrez would ask for I'll Have Another's Best - but he would have been caught three wide and lost valuable ground. He cooly held the rail to save ground and did not make his move until they straightened for home. I didn't know if he'd get there, and inside the 1/8th pole I had my doubts because Bodemeister had set soft fractions. But I kept thinking his lack of foundation and three races in five weeks WOULD get to him. And in the final fifty yards it did as I'll Have Another surged by to win! WHOOOOO HOOOOOOO! Triple Crown here we come! Even better, the crowd had let him go off at better than 3/1 - so when the $8.40 mutual was posted my "BEST" of the day ticket at Pimlico netted me a return of over $80! I am a BIG TIME winner on the day :) Click the photo below to watch the video replay of the race - it is a thrilling race!
At Churchill Downs: 9 selections - 5 WINS - profit of $25.00At Pimlico: 10 selections - 6 WINS - profit of $60.00
Total for the day: 36 selections - 17 WINS - profit of $92.00!
Total for the day: 36 selections - 17 WINS - profit of $92.00!
Memorial Day Weekend: May 24 - 28
Thursday after Kim got home from school and I from a graduation meeting at school we jumped into the sports car and headed for the mountains of Georgia and to visit our best friends, Sue and Dan Reynolds. I played the Churchill Downs races on both Thursday and Friday using my phone and checked the results at the hotel on Thursday night and at Sue & Dan's on Friday night.....the result: FIVE winners out of ten races! Awesome start to the weekend! On Saturday morning we headed out to a park about 40 minutes away and hiked through the woods, covering about 2 1/2 miles in total, to see Duke Falls - see photos at left and above. By the time we got back it was time for the racing to begin...... In fact, I actually had to make my first bet while we were walking in the woods! Got back and watched the replay of Sailmate winning the opener at Belmont. He sat off the pace and just blew by as much the best. My best at Churchill was next in a listed stakes, but had scratched :( So I had to wait for the opener at Arlington - but the odds-on favorite wired the field and I was never in it. Next up at Belmont was the 4th where I liked Mulheb. I was hoping for a price because on a speed figure comparison he didn't match up - but he was exiting a KEY race where he'd been 4th beaten double digits - but the winner, runner-up AND show horses all came back to win! Mulheb set sail through really swift fractions considering it was an 8 1/2 furlong race, but as they hit the turn and the pace SHOULD have been getting to him, he opened up daylight from the field. He was all out to hold off the 3/5 favorite but he won! Paid a nice $9.10 and I cashed in for over $45! But the fun was just starting! In my next race, at Churchill I tabbed Five Star David who was first off the claim for Dane Kobiski - a 37% angle. HE went to the front and in a virtual replay he lasted just long enough to win in a FIVE WAY PHOTO! But I was pretty sure I had won - like Mulheb he paid a juicy price - even higher at $10.20 and I cashed for over $50! I missed in the next at Churchill, but scored right back again; I won again at Churchill where I was loose on the lead, but was all out to hold on in another photo. Very close, but I was pretty sure I'd won with A Time To Love. Missed in the Grade 2 Sheepshead Bay at Belmont where I KNEW Aruna would win, exiting an excuse filled try at Keeneland which was a KEY race, but I went with Bill Mott on a bit of a price.Not to worry as right after that I was back in the winner's circle for FOUR STRAIGHT! Started at Arlington I backed the veteran Mr. Mischief going a mile on the turf. Jockey E.T. Baird is a master front-runner jockey and he stole this one. Paid a big $12.60 and I was collecting yet again! No sooner had that race been announced official then I switched screens to Churchill and Force de la Nature was wiring the 9th at Churchill Downs! Came back with the last of the sequence with my first winner at Hollywood. On the turf again at a mile, Mia Isabel had the best speed figures and was 2-for-3 on the grass. She was patiently handled, looked to be trapped through the turn, but split horses powerfully and blew the field away through the final sixteenth of a mile. 
The last of the four straight sequence was the co-feature at Arlington, the Grade 3 Arlington Matron over the synthetic main track. Upperline had won this race last year and was coming off a big win for me in the Bewitch Stakes at Keeneland - on the grass. Jockey James Graham waited - almost too long I thought - then asked for a big kick as they turned for home and she was MUCH the best! At this point of the day I was a sparkling eight for eleven and well into the black for the day. I did mental calculations and thought even if I missed the rest of the day it would be a nice profit for the day and a big winning percentage, but I wasn't done yet! In my BEST at Arlington I loved Silver Max. The race was the co-featured Arlington Classic on the grass - the first of three races that would culminate with the Secretariat on Arlington Million Day. Silver Max not only was the lone speed, he was a multiple graded stakes winning three year old faces a group of sophomores who did not have a stakes win between them. I was just a tad worried when he set a really quick pace, but when they turned for home and the field appeared to be gaining, he found another gear and ran away to score! Even though I missed with my Best of the Day, Mr. Commons in the Grade 2 American at Hollywood, and ran second or third in my other four late races I finished the day with a spectacular record.........
Nine WINS from seventeen selections and nearly $100 in profit!
Sunday - Monday: May 27-28
Sunday we spent the day with Sue and Dan - first on a long walk along a local dam and then out on his Dad's boat for dinner at a water-front restaurant and a tour of the huge houses on the lake. Interestingly the boat stopped in the middle of the lake - but we were "rescued" by friends of his Dad who not only towed us to dock, but gave us their boat for the evening. That my friends is a good friend! When the four of us got back to the house we went out for Dairy Queen and then I checked my Sunday results. I scored on two of the four selections, but lost a little of my Saturday profits when my "Best" got cooked in a sizzling speed duel through the first half mile.
On Monday, Memorial Day, we were up and out the door by 5 am to make the long drive back to Ft. Lauderdale. Little did we know we'd be driving through Tropical Storm Beryle on the way! At our second stop, around 10 am I used my iPhone to log into my Twin Spires account and "called in" my six Churchill bets. I had also handicapped the six graded stakes on the national card, and had picks in all of them: four at Belmont and two at Hollywood. The drive took over 12 hours, but we were home before dinner. And while Kim prepared spaghetti for us (and Brad & Lauren) I checked the Churchill Downs replays. I won two of the six, including my "BEST" of the day at Churchill. Dynamical laid over the field after being out-photo'd while 4-wide in his latest, yet still four clear of the show horse. That came after finishing 3rd twice in stakes company as a maiden! He romped as much the best as the odds-on choice. After dinner I sat down at the computer to see the Belmont replays, and I KNEW I had multiple winners......at least I THOUGHT I knew.....sigh..... In the Grade 2 Sands Point for 3-yo fillies on the turf Somali Lemonade was sent off at 4/5, but when they turned for home and she was ready to switch to her big kick-finish, she didn't fire - fourth. But then up next was the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps and my BEST of the DAY! Awesome Maria had won six graded stakes in a row and had a bullet work for today's race, a race she'd won last season. She was perfectly positioned, but when asked to run by the dueling pace setters she was flat, just as Somali Lemonade had been. A shocking result to everyone who'd contributed to her 3-to-4 odds-on betting status.
I thought On Fire Baby had a good chance to win the Grade 1 Acorn...... but she too disappointed at 5/2. Finally it was the featured Grade 1 Met Mile. There were top horses from inside to outside in the gate, but Caleb's Posse's last THREE Beyer speed figures beat career efforts of everyone in the field with a lone exception of one race. He'd lost two close photos to start his 4-year-old campaign and this looked like the perfect spot to get the first win. Shackleford, one of my favorite runners - who'd won on Derby Day WITHOUT my money - looked to be pressed on the front end and set the table for Caleb's Posse. Went exactly as planned, except when Shackleford put away his pace rival and Caleb's Posse came to run him down, he could not get past Shackleford's nose, and it was another heart-breaking photo loss for Caleb.....and completed my shutout at Belmont. Sigh......... I came back a little later to watch the late races from Hollywood Park. In the first of their two features, the Grade 3 Los Angeles, it looked to me like Roman Threat woulld be LONG GONE on the front end. He'd only been out twice in his career, but both netted triple Beyers which were better than any of his rivals. More importantly his pace figures looked to put he on a daylight lead. Just as scripted.....right to the front, never threatened, and all alone on the wire. My triple bet netted nearly $30 and I was on the comeback trail! The last race on my selection sheet was the Grade 1 Gamely - nine furlongs on the turf. I had seen and bet on Belle Royale in a listed stakes in late April. She had come from completely out of the tv picture to score with a devastating late kick. At today's longer distance I thought she'd be even more effective. I was hoping for a double digit price, but settled for a nice 2.3-1 odds. The only difference today from the prep I'd won earlier with her was jockey Joel Rosario had to duck inside, split horses off the turn and then unleash her big late kick. Mowed them down handily. I cashed for over $30 and suddenly I was just a few dollars back on the day - and a CLEAR winner for the weekend!
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