Calder / Summer Racing 2012
June 2012
June 2012
Thursday May 31 - Kick off new month with 3 WINS!
I officially closed the month of May with the Memorial Day racing cards..... it just seemed with only one day left in the month, and a new racing week starting to make the most sense. As you can see in the chart
above it was an excellent month for me. My stats compared favorably with Jill Byrne and she is by far and away THE BEST public/online handicapper. I've tracked all the "big names" for several years and she always scores the best figures - and she is not a consistent favorite player. My numbers compare even better with hers when you consider only the races I bet. But, she'd probably have much better stats if she could pick and choose which races to "count." So today started the new racing week and month. I ran second in the first race on my sheet but then came back to score when I tripled the investment on Burban. She made her talent known when in her debut here last summer she just missed to Groupie Doll - a multiple graded stakes winner and a track record setter on Derby Day in the Grade 1 Humana Distaff. She was MUCH the best and I collected nearly $30! After missing in the 5th I came right back with my BEST of the Day! Regal Nurse was working on a NINE race win streak and had twice scored at this one-turn mile distance. She romped home as much the best and in so doing became THE FIRST HORSE TO WIN SEVEN RACES IN 2012 in North America! HORRAY for Regal Nurse. In my final selection I tabbed Guys Reward based on his consistent Beyers. Turning for home he had the look of a winner but was trapped on the rail. A seam opened up and he shot through along the paint and scored to give me my third winner (from five selections) on the day! Whooo Hooooo!
Saturday June 2 - Downs After Dark!......Eleven Wins - FOUR Stakes WINS!
It was back to the races today after having been away for two full weeks - though I'd kept my racing adventures going via the magic of the Internet :) Today in particular was a welcome respite from the last week's "stress" of helping to organize and put together the Cypress Bay High graduation which features the Vice President of the United States as a keynote speaker.....lots of meetings with VP Office Staff and Secret Service. So I was really glad to just escape today into a world that I am so passionate about. The day started off with a BIG BANG! Walked in with about twenty minutes to post time and made my first couple of investments. The first was a double-up on class dropping, double Beyer figure My Place Anytime at Monmouth. He was a fair 4/5 at post time, but by the time he'd given the field the slip after the opening quarter he was down to 1/5, which is probably his true odds. Romped easily. Five minutes later Karma Police was an easy winner at Belmont and I was two-for-two and it was photo-op time (see pic at left)! But the good times continued to roll...... My first pick at Calder was in the second race, going a mile on the main track. I was against the favorite and liked Alice's Alex. He was 9/5 at post time but his odds floated up to 5/2 as they hit the first time. I liked him because he had the meet's top jockey and looked to have the best pace figures to wire the field. But two others squeezed him trying to get to the front, so my rider let them go on and he sat patiently right behind them. On the far turn Alice moved with ease and drew off to win by open lengths (see pic below). The $7.20 payoff was excellent and I was three-for-three! Back to Belmont where I had the favorite.....right to the front, well within himself to the top of the lane, then when asked to run --> nothing :( I actually lost! Not to worry though......... In the third at Monmouth I had selected Not A Given who was "dropping" from stiffer New York racing competition, but was stuck on the outside. If anyone could get him a good trip it was perenniel leading rider Jersey Joe Bravo! He was 6/5 as they loaded into the gate; but as he surged late to win his odds had fallen to 3/5 .... still, another winner and I'm four out of five to start the day! WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!
As Sainted Dancer crossed the finish line it was about 1:45. Little did I know that I wouldn't cash again until nearly three hours later! Typically such long stretches are agonizing and the time seems to drag as the day beats you down. But, I've had such good racing luck and have been handicapping so well, it never really occurred to me that I'd lose for the day, much less continue to not cash. And to be honest, I was in nearly every race until mid-stretch. At Monmouth I led the length of the stretch before weakening to be second in the final fifty yards; 3rd at Calder after leading into the far turn; rallied late at both Belmont and Arlington to be fast closing fourths. Led to the far turn at Calder, 3rd; rallied too late at Arlington, 3rd again. Head-bobbing finish at Monmouth - second in a photo :( And so we arrived at the 9th live at Calder.... My selection was Another Romance who did NOT figure to be the favorite. I did not like the fact he was a 1-for-12 runner, but it had grabbed my attention when I noted that Saez had signed on board. And I was further intrigued when I noted he'd been on this filly only once - in HER ONLY WIN! So as I was heading to the windows I thought to myself - ok, so I am all around it, you KNOW I am going to win more races today; this specific pick is one of those that it's a hidden nugget, just a little something that probably most handicappers wouldn't give much attention to. But I had found it. I looked at the board and Another Romance had drifted up from 5/2 to 3/1....and then to 4/1. So I made a "command decision" - double down on the bet! I made the bet and walked out to the rail. His odds dropped slightly to 7/2 as they left the gate. It was a four-horse calvary charge into the far turn, but Saez kept Another Romance in the pocket behind the dueling leaders. On the turn you could see it, and even track announcer Bobby Newman called out how effortlessly Another Romance was moving to the leaders and then right on by the leaders! As I waited at the finish line he drew off handily to score! The drought was over :) The payoffs were posted and it was a juicy $9.40 for a $2 bet - but with my $10 investment I was getting back nearly $50 and suddenly I'm nearly even on the day in spite of the three hour, ten race lull! YAHOOOO!
Ran third at Hollywood and then it was the beginning of the stakes action. My first stakes selection was at Belmont, the Grade 2 Vagrancy Handicap. My first inclination was to go with one of my favorite mares, Nicole H. But then I saw she'd just run last Saturday, and had failed to win for the third consecutive time.....is she a step slower this year? I liked C C's Pal, but she too had run in the same race. But, Dave Liftin, the DRF handicapper for New York had made C C's Pal his "BEST" of the Day. I rarely go against Dave and often make that an automatic play. So I had listed her as a double investment. I read in the Daily Racing Form that C C's Pal's trainer had an entry mate to serve as a pace-setter to "kill the other speed" making her stalking trip even more effective. But as race time approached I noted that horse had been scratched! Did this give Nicole H a pace advantage? I wavered back and forth, until finally I decided that Liftin's Best and the fact that C C's Pal could race right near the pace was enough to stand pat. The gates sprung open and it was C C's Pal who went to the front. Very easy fractions, and as a guy behind me said, "the #1 is LONG GONE!" So I thought.....but in mid-stretch here came Nicole H! She not only drew even with C C's Pal, but with about 100 yards to go was clearly in front. It is a rare and talented horse who can be passed in deep stretch after dueling who will / can fight back.....but that is exactly what happened! It was one head up and one head down for about 50 yards, but in the last two jumps it was clearly C C's Pal in front. In spite of the official "photo finish" sign I knew I'd scored again. What a great race! I cashed my ticket, made one last live bet for the Calder feature, and then made several bets for races that would go off later..........
I led to the turn in the Calder feature but the favorite blew right by me (6th) and I headed for home. Because the Churchill Downs races were all late I had decided to make them all through my TwinSpires account and had placed them via my phone before leaving. I got home a little after 6 pm and checked three races that had gone off during the drive home. The first was the feature on the Jersey Shore, Monmouth's John J. Reily Handicap. It looked to me like The Hunk was CLEARLY the lone speed and that he'd be LONG GONE, especially at Monmouth where speed often rules the day. As I watched the replays he sprung out of the gate like he had jet packs on and zipped clear easily. No one ever threatened him and he won as MUCH the BEST! I had tripled the bet, and then the prices came up......somehow the crowd had let him go off at a general 5/2! He paid $7.20 and with my triple bet I cashed for over $50! After missing on three races I scored at Arlington when Hungry Wildcat was easily best with a double bet - another $25.00 for me! My "BEST" of the Day was in the Grade 2 Californian where I was against the odds-on favorite Game On Dude. He was making his first start since travelling across the world to Dubai and his big target was his NEXT race. I thought there would be a speed duel setting up the best closer Kettle Corn. But Game On Dude got loose on the lead and looked awesome in drawing off by almost a pole..... with Kettle Corn second. I had almost bet win and place which would have let me break even, but I never do that, so I didn't. By this point it was time for the Downs After Dark program to start at Churchill Downs. Luckily the entire set of races was being broadcast on the Horse Racing Television Network so I was able to watch it on the big screen TV throughout the night........ She was given time off and came back off a break and was second in two graded stakes to runners who repeated in their next-out stakes races. Her last, on the Keeneland main track/synthetic surface was an obvious prep for tonight. She too, like the first two stakes selections, had drawn the rail and again my concern was getting pinned on the rail. She enjoyed a beautiful hedge-skimming, ground-saving trip into the stretch. But was indeed pinned inside and could not get out for clear run until inside the final furlong. It looked like it was too late as they hit the final 100 yards and she was still over a length back, but with a final burst of accelerationshe was J-U-S-T up in time! Bizzy Caroline went off at 9/5, and paid $5.60. My investment netted me over $40 and I was in the black for the day! And a double-digits profit at Churchill Downs! A GREAT DAY of racing! 
Monday June 4 - CBHS Graduation
Though not a racing day, this was a major day in my life and I felt it deserved some mention in my journals. I had mentioned several times about spending time planning and working towards today, and it came off in spectacular fashion! Go here: http://www.freewebs.com/markim/cbhs_2012.html
The entire process of planning for a graduation in the new Marlins' Park - the first EVER to be held there - was very unique. Unlike any other venue we'd used where the graduates were seated in straight across rows of forty students with a middle row, here we had five lower sections made up of 8 to 10 rows with 8 to 15 seats, and then two big sections of 26 rows with seats numbering from 8 to 20+. And to complicate matters, there was a single stairway connecting these sections to access to the field for graduation on the field. THAT was one of my responsibilities. It was so cool when I saw it from a "bird's eye view" later that night on the CBS news report - see above. But the two "BEST" stories of the night were these....... About an hour before the graduates marched in we were still up in the air as to if the Vice President would stay to shake hands with the kids as they marched across the stage. I was with the head of the Vice President's Advance Team, and he and I came up with a plan and he pulled out his phone and said, "Give me Air Force Two." So as we stood there he, I and the VP's chief aide, with the VP, brokered the deal that kept him on the stage for every kid. And the other story - which has to be an obvious question you'd ask......"DId you meet the Vice President?" Throughout the evening one of the members of the VP's team, who had graduated from CBHS kept working on this and as the Vice President exited the field he stopped and shook hands with me and the three other members of our Graduation Team who had worked so hard to make this all come true :)
Friday June 8 - FOUR Wins......Disappointment for the Belmont
Before my first race left the gate I got a text from my oldest son Jeff that he heard I'll Have Another had scratched out of the Belmont. I checked it out and it was true. So very disappointing as I really, REALLY thought this was the year for a Triple Crown winner. He just looked MUCH the best to me, and it just "fit" with my retirement year as so very many things had gone my way. How ironic that the year I was AT the Derby and saw the Derby winner live, it would be the year of a Triple Crown winner. I thought it was just meant to be, but no :( I met with my buddy Jeff Nelson this afternoon to make a few bets for him and he had planned to really go "all in" on that one, so he shared my disappointment. But there was racing today! Unlike the Derby and Preakness which features a filly version of the big race on Friday, Belmont had two graded stakes only. But I wanted in on the action, so I'd handicapped the card. I didn't win either of the stakes but I did score in two of the four races. In the second race I doubled the bet on the first of M-A-N-Y two-year-old juvenile winners that will come from the Todd Pletcher barn I'm sure - Rose Junction drew off handily. You can see the runner up appears to check in mid-stretch, but the inquiry-replay clearly showed that Rose Junction ran straight as an arrow, it was the runner-up who was doing the veering out. I scored at at Churchill Downs in their late-post opener when Tapanna was tons the best on the turf. And I scored my third in a row when Julie's Love led gate to wire to win the 6th. I had bet her in her last two "starts" but she'd scratched out of both, so I was glad to have caught her today. My fourth winner on the day came in a Churchill turf sprint where I had two conflicting handicapping angles. #4 Standing By was the lone two-time turf winner in the field....but I preferred #3-Jungle Juice who was first off the claim for hot trainer Dane Kobiskie. And the "Juicer" was 15/1 on the often terribly wrong DRF morning line. It was a thrilling finish between my top-two, but Jungle Juice won - at 8/5.......DRF linesmaker WAY off, again!
June 9: Belmont Day! I WIN THE BELMONT!!!!! ..............But THIRTEEN SECONDS!
Until nearly 4 o'clock it seemed like the late defection of I'll Have Another had cast disarray not only over the racing world, but over my selections. After missing in the first two races - especially disheartening when Jeter disappointed yet AGAIN at Belmont - I scored in a tight photo in my first Churchill selection. Thought the day was about to get underway as I took the photo of my "first winning ticket" - thinking it would be the first of many. At Monmouth I had the 4/5 favorite Coral Glade who went right to the front, led all the way to deep stretch and was run down - and so the parade of THIRTEEN runner-up finishes began. At Calder I went with the second choice thinking the favorite would quit again, she didn't - second. Again second at Churchill and then at Arlington I had tabbed my former student Rosemary Homeister on a third choice at 5/2....rated to the turn and opened up clear at the 1/8th pole, only to be caught in the final yards.....second AGAIN! Three more misses and then I KNEW I was going to be back in the winner's circle as it was the co-feature at Hollywood Park.
In the Grade 2 Honeymoon Handicap my pick was Lady Shamrock. I had selected her in both her last two races and she had been ultra impressive. She has a devastating turn of foot and when she's swung out for the stretch drive there is simply no denying her. In fact her talent had scared off all but four rivals today. My only "fear" and it was just a slight misgiving was that her regular rider, Mike Smith, was in New York to ride on the Belmont card. But I was certain talent would win out.......... There had been talk of little pace to the race, but as they went down the backstretch she was in a good spot and the pace was not slow....not fast, but moderate enough that she'd have no problem with her stretch kick. The new jockey was riding the rails and it occurred to me that CERTAINLY he would not make a "Julien Leparoux-like" error and get the horse trapped. But as they were coming out of the turn he had an option to go very wide or split rivals. He went for the split and it looked good until they straightened for home. Instead of continuing through to split horses he made a hard right and ducked outside and behind the second favorite who had a full head of stem. It took about two strides to get back into high gear and she closed with a rush.....head bobbing on the wire, PHOTO finish! I was nearly certain I had not had my head down on the wire - the bob before and after, but not the one that counted. Sure enough, after a long examination the official result was I was second. That hurt, but was oh so typical of the way the day was going......... I missed in the Churchill feature when instead of backing one of my favorite veteran turf horses I went for a bit of a price in an upset - 3rd at 4/1. At Calder, it was "Summit of Speed Preview Day" and they had four stakes on the card. The first was the Emergency Nurse and I had Canadian Mistress - stretch duel .... PHOTO....wanna guess?
At Belmont, it was the Grade 2 True North at 7 furlongs and I had made a "Prime Time" play on Smiling Tiger. He would have been my "BEST of the Weekend" at the Breeders' Cup but was injured. He came back at Churchill and just wasn't himself. I KNEW he'd bounce back today at his favorite distance. I figured he would rally into what looked like a hot pace. But as they hit the far turn he wasn't even in the TV picture. Late running third, but never a threat. Wow...... The next almost sent me home for the day when at Churchill Downs I had the 3/5 favorite - stalked the leader, cruised to the lead and then could not hold off a long shot through the final furlong - 2nd, A-G-A-I-N! But I kept telling myself, "don't give up, the winners will come!" and so I made my next bet, a double investment on a horse that was 7/1 with minutes to post time. Glass Art had just won a non-winners of two lifetime and was stepping up into alowance company.....a move that almost always NEVER produces a winner. But, she was the LONE SPEED and had strong riding Paco Lopez. She was bet down to 9/2 as they left the post and she stole it. The payoff of $11.60 netted me $58 and I thought, "FINALLY, here we go!" I wasn't nearly as bothered by ANOTHER second at Arlington because the next was one of my BEST of the day, Winter Memories, who was unbeaten at Belmont, was running in the Grade 1 Just A Game at a mile on the turf. I had thought it odd last weekend when Tapits Fly scratched out of a Grade 3 at Churchill on their Downs After Dark program to run here against two of the best turf fillies in the country. Guess I should have taken that as an omen - she stole the race on the front end and Winter Memories closed too late to finish - you guessed it, SECOND!
I went out to the computer and watched the replays of the three races that had been run while I was driving home. The first was the Grade 1 Manhattan going a mile and a quarter on the turf at Belmont. I did NOT like the favorite Boisterous - who I had cashed on a couple of times last year. Instead I went with a European based runner who had been beaten by Boisterous last out, going a mile and a sixteenth. I thought today's distance played right into his hands. That race had been winding down to post time as I was getting ready to leave Calder and I kept seeing Desert Blanc (my pick) was listed at 6/1 throughout the betting. As I opened the replay he had left the gate at 6/1 - I thought he'd be mid-pack, but instead he was tracking the leaders. Inside the final furlong he was trapped on the rail with a small seam, so reminiscent of the Belmont I'd just watched. And in the final fifty yards it was one head up and one head down, but on the wire I was nearly positive I'd won.....the official photo confirmed it and then the prices were posted.....$14.80 to win! With my double investment I cashed for near $75! Back in with a fighting chance to minimize the losses on the day as I headed for my final "prime time" bet in the featured Grade 1 Charles Whittingham at Hollywood Park.
Acclamation had been money in the bank for me all last year and he was highly considered for "Horse of the Year" to go with the Eclipse Award he did win, Older Male Horse of the Year. He was scheduled to make his return in late April but had a minor set back. So today he was coming back not only from a long layoff, but an extended layoff with a set back in the middle. To complicate matters he was being ridden by Patrick Valenzuela - who is a Hall of Fame rider - but P.Val as he's known had not won a race yet and he too had been off for a couple of weeks. That seems like a lot to overcome. The "wise guy" pro handicappers were all against Acclamation. So when I looked at the past performances I wondered if I would be turned against my money-making machine. His last four races had all earned triple Beyer speed figures and only one of his rivals had EVER earned a triple digit. And then I looked at the last time Acclamation had come off a layoff - he'd earned a 96 speed figure. The rest of the field had not topped 96 in over two years. So, as I figured it, if Acclamation ran his WORST race and earned a 96, someone would have to earn their BEST figure to have a CHANCE to beat him. Throw in the fact that he was absolutely the ONLY FRONT RUNNER in the field and I thought he was a lock unless he simply wasn't healthy. Even at less than 100%, he'd win - maybe not with authority, but he'd win. They broke from the gate and he easily made the lead. When they went the half mile in :49 and change and three quarters in a leisurely 1:14 and change I was certain that even at today's 1 1/4 mile distance and his lengthy layoff, he would hold them off. Sure enough, when the other contenders accelerated in the stretch, Acclamation had something left and he was clear by open lengths on the wire! I cashed for another $40 and I had narrowed the gap on the profit line to a minimal loss on the day. As I told Kim afterwards, I'd glady and happily accept the minor loss of cash considering THIRTEEN second place finishes, two of them with "BEST" bets! All day I had been thinking that my memory of Belmont 2012 would be disappointment - I'll Have Another scratches, I miss so many races with runner-up finishes, and I lose so much money. Instead I walk away remembering I won the Belmont, I cashed on two other "BEST" bets in Grade 1 races, and had two double-digit payoffs. Good times........
Boy, if nothing else, the weekend hammered my winning percentage and certainly cooled off my profits for the month after such a sizzling start! Sometimes you are just "not seeing it" or are "off" in your handicapping when the horses just don't run the way you expect them to. Not this weekend.....they ran their race, but just could not cross the line first. This was ever so apparent today. Very briefly........I was second at 13/1 at Churchill Downs when I led by open lengths to mid-stretch, but was caught inside the 16th pole by the favorite and finished a close 2nd; I split horses at Churchill to take the lead on the turf, only to be run down by the favorite as he closed down the middle of the course. In two later races at Churchill my horse was the low-odds contender, chasing a 23-1 and then a 15-1 down, first on the turf and the latter on the dirt....couldn't get by, 2nd. Between 2 pm and 4 pm I went through five consecutive races of 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd - made the lead and was caught or came running, too late. The three winners on the day were exciting. At Calder in just the third race of the day my pick was 7/1 as they approached the gate. He plunged to 7/2 as the gates opened, and by the time they were turned for home he was the 5/2 favorite. Philourpockets was five wide surging late to be up in time. I had gone out today because friends from school wanted to have a "track day" and everyone was excited at the first of what we thought would be a string of winners.....sigh. The next winner would not come for FOUR hours, but at least it was the "BEST of the DAY" when Data Link ran down one of my favorite horses, Get Stormy, in the Grade 2 Monmouth Stakes. I left on that note for the day and had a few races to watch when I got home. I cashed one triple investment from the group I'd bet. Royal Meridian was 4/5 at Hollywood and had to rally five wide, but was up in time in an exciting finish. Off for a few days, and I am very much looking forward to next Saturday when it will be "Downs After Dark" on Saturday night, with the feature race being the Grade 1 Clark Handicap!
Saturday June 16 - Downs After Dark
The highlight of today's racing was going to be the "Downs After Dark" program which had a first post of 6:00 pm. When Churchill had it's first Saturday under the lights two weeks ago I enjoyed the day, but it was a l-o-n-g day to be "at the races" from noon to nearly midnight. So for today, especially with four graded stakes to highlight the program, I made the Churchill races the centerpiece of the racing day. I did not handicap any of the afternoon tracks - Belmont, Calder, Monmouth - but instead focused on the late afternoon and evening tracks - Hollywood, Colonial, and Presque Isle. I picked the latter because (a) we will be there in a couple of weeks and I wanted to "warm up" to the racing there, and (b) I had emailed Presque Isle and asked if I could meet up with handicapper Katie Mikolay, who I'd met at the Fair Grounds. She emailed me back and mentioned I might even get on air! Now how cool would that be? So, I was ready for the day to kick off at around 4:30 pm. But as the afternoon was slowly winding along - Kim was out having fun with her Mom, Peggy who was visiting, I decided that I would look at the Arlington races since it was their Prairie Stakes Day for Illinois-bred runners. I printed off the analysis - Arlington is one of the very few tracks that analyzes EVERY horse in every race. I compared that to the local handicapper's "KEY" selections and came up with plays in two stakes races and in one other race.
I will remember today as a good day at the races; that I hit a high percentage of winners (over 32%); and cashed my BEST of the Day. But I will also remember when I look at these two photos (below) how very close I came to having a nice profit on the day. Two photos cost me the black type at the bottom of the balance sheet today........ I scored back-to-back at Hollywood (after missing in the first of my four plays at Arlington). The first winner (see above) was a "duh, who can't see that" type as Missdealornodeal was TONS the best. Though if you could have stopped the race midway through the far turn I might have sold you my ticket. It was a six furlong turf sprint and my filly was WAY back. But as they turned for home she just blew by everyone and won by daylight. The second win of the day was in the first two-year-old stakes of the year, the Willard Proctor. Amarish had sizzled in her debut as an odds-on debut runner. She looked to be an easy winner on paper if able to replicate that kind of pace performance - though eratic through the lane she was a handy winner! Back-to-back seconds were next, the second of which was the Hollywood photo you see above. Norvsky was a triple investment for me and he surged to the lead but was dueling to the wire. The bob before or the bob after would have made me a winner, but I knew when I saw it in real time - just the wrong bob at the wrong time.....sigh..... After a third in the opener at Churchill - where I only had one winner on the day, that too would have made me a profitable player had I won my fair share there - I scored with my second pick at Arlington. In the 9th race, the Lincoln Heritage Handicap Cumulonimble, was unbeaten over the Chicago turf and was dropping out of a graded stakes at Gulfstream. Was the "BRIS BEST" of the day. He looked out of it on the turn, but he had a quick turn of foot and accelerated past the leaders in mid-stretch! Missed on the next three before heading back to the winner's circle in not one, not two, but three consecutive races!
It's easy now that the day is over, but had I only upped the wager on Cumulonimble, or on either of my next two winners....... hit my first winner at Presque Isle when Love Gone Sour scored...........
....and paid $8.60. Then in the Cinderella Stakes at Hollywood, I had landed on Miss Empire. Her name caught my eye initially, but then I saw she was a maiden in a stakes race. But then as I looked down through the field I saw a lot of speed and she was a finisher. I checked Brad Free's analysis....he had her on top! She stalked the pace and as they came out of the turn race announcer Vic Stauffer called, "Miss Empire catches the eye...." she "sling shotted" as Stauffer said to the front and was gone. And get this, the price? A juicy 8/1! Oh to have doubled the bet here! She paid $19.80. The $50 payoff was sweet, but if it had been $100 I am a winner on the day! Soooo many little decisions that can turn the bottom line. I capped off the trio of winners when Elle's Wager became my second winner from three picks at Arlington. She had the best "late pace" rating as well as top class figures. When she trailed into the far turn I looked at the numbers again for a boost of confidence. Then she hit the gas and it was goodbye to the field! (As a side note I almost made a bet in one other stakes, on the turf, where I thought Mr. Mischief - who I'd seen at the Fair Grounds this winter - could steal it. But without the past performances I decided no....he won at over $12 - sigh......) For the next hour I had a steady stream of "close but no cigar" picks. I had either THE favorite or one of the favorites in all but one of them, but the best I could do was three seconds and a third from nine races. I finally got back on the winning team in the Colonial Turf Handicap at Colonial Downs. I don't really know why I made Turbo Compressor a minimum bet. He appeared to be the lone speed and had Joe Bravo for Todd Pletcher, duh. I think it was the 1 3/16th mile distance that made me wary. Bravo was great, rationing the speed to have something left for the final furlong and he drew off at a nice payoff of $7.00. Whooo Hooooo! Missed in the finale at Hollywood when third at a very big 8/1. Scored in my final bet at Colonial when Vapour Musing wore down the leaders late in the stretch. And finally it was time for my BEST of the Day - the Grade 2 Fleur De Lis featuring one of my favorite runners, Royal Delta. When she had made her four-year-old debut I was all against her. Nothing personal my deal :) After all, she'd been my "Best" on Breeders' Cup Filly Friday when she scored in the Grade 1 Ladies' Classic. But when she showed up in the Gulfstream entries in the Grade 2 Sabin. She'd originally been my "Best" that day, but then I thought about how trainer Bill Mott was using this as a prep for a try against the boys in the $5 million Dubai World Cup. Royal Delta was not going to be cranked up for a $150K purse in a one-turn mile in a grade two when she was hunting for a Group 1 $5 million prize. So, I nailed the winner in Awesome Maria who was in form while Royal Delta got what she needed out of the race. The Dubai race was a fiasco for Royal Delta. I know she's got bigger races on her schedule, including defense of her Breeders' Cup title, but it just seemed to me that to win the Eclipse Award and be the best in her division, you wouldn't want to start off the year 0-for-3. Mott is the all-time leading trainer here at Churchill, Royal Delta obviously loves the surface, and the others were way overmatched if she was ready. So I made her my "BEST." I originally planned to invest $30, but upped it to $50! As they hit the far turn jockey Mike Smith had her tracking the dueling leaders, but had not asked. I saw him give her just the slightest nudge and she began eating up ground immediately - without any obvious effort to run harder. As they began to spin out of the turn she just blew by the two leaders and in a blink she was two clear and then nearly a dozen clear by the furlong marker. Smith had her in an easy canter across the wire STILL widening her winning margin! It was a dynamic, awesome display of talent. WHOOOO HOOOOOO!
At this point I knew I was close to breaking even or a little bit ahead. As seems to be the case nearly every racing day the profit or loss on the day would come down to the last few races. I thought Wise Dan was simply the best horse in here. I considered that he would probably NOT repeat his amazing performance from his last start where he earned a year-best 117 Beyer, but anything close to what he normally runs would win here. On top of that he was unbeated at this nine-furlong trip and loves the Churchill Downs track. I calculated even a drop-off of ten points and he was a winner by daylight. The crowd obviously agreed with my analysis and sent him off at 4/5. The television coverage interviewed his trainer and he seemed very confident. The race shaped up to have a lone speed, but Wise Dan would be tracking him. I thought coming out of the turn he would accelerate and be gone before the stalkers and closers had a chance. Well the first part went as planned. Front runner, loose on the lead with Wise Dan tracking. They turned for home and instead of Wise Dan accelerating, it was the front runner! Uh oh! At the 1/8th pole he was still two lengths back. But then he found a new gear and I could tell he'd wear down the front runner. But up the rail was the Santa Anita Handicap winner, Ron the Greek - ironically trained by Royal Delta's trainer, Bill Mott! With about fifty yards to go Wise Dan seized the lead. But Ron the Greek was still coming. In the last twenty yards it was a series of head bobs to the wire. One jump earlier and Wise Dan holds him off - but not on the jump that counted.....see the finish from another angle at the right......sigh..... I still had a chance to profit, but the favorites lost both of the last two races :( Still, a great day of races filled with exciting finishes and I won many races today!
Sunday June 17
The week came to a successful end with racing at Churchill Downs. After missing in the first - with one of "those" runners who you know are either going to romp by daylight or finish up the track....today he finished up the track.....sigh - I scored in the second when Gentle Tap scored first off the claim for Michael Maker. In all three of my wins today I thought "outside" the box and was rewarded. In the Gentle Tap race he was stepping into open claiming off a win in 2-lifetime company; not a typical winning move. But when combined with the first-off-the-claim angle it was successful. My third winner, in the finale was a turf sprint where I selected Vuitton to wire the field in spite of the fact he'd never been on the turf before! But he had turf breeding. The inside post would be advantageous with speed IF he could break sharply. His last two he'd broken well, and I was betting he would today. He did, and though a longshot briefly took the lead on the turn, he ran away in the stretch. But the BEST of the day was when Summer Kitten scored in the sixth. Why outside the box here? Summer Kitten was a beaten favorite in four of her last five and had lost ground in ALL of them! But what I liked was the fact that she was facing better in all those races; I also liked that the only time he went this distance she was a "best-of-the-rest 2nd" and the winner came back to score; she'd paired speed figures; and finally top rider Corey Lanerie was climbing on board. It was a hand ride through the stretch as I ended the week on a big upswing!
Tuesday June 19 - Royal Ascot!......................the best horse in the world - FRANKEL!
What a real treat today! The prestigious Royal Ascot Meet kicked off and the first race featured the best horse in the world, Frankel - unbeaten in ten lifetime starts - in the one mile Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes. I looked all over the Internet trying to find handicapping analysis that would even hint that he was in the least bit vulnerable. Nothing - in fact, the Timeform program (the equivalent of the Daily Racing Form) listed as it's comment on Frankel, "Cannot be opposed!" Within the magazine apparently was a full page ad that featured his photo with the title, "Death, Taxes, Frankel!" as the three things certain in life! As they approached the gate TVG reported that $10.2 million had bet to win on the race, with $9.8 million on Frankel! Well $50 of that was my money, and it was certainly the easiest five dollars I've ever won! Not only did Frankel win, and win convincingly, but he won off by ELEVEN lengths in what was described as perhaps the GREATEST performance in the HISTORY of thoroughbred history! Just an amazing, breathtaking run through the final half mile. Watch the video below to see for yourself. On a side note, I enjoyed watching the live broadcast on the big screen, but if you move your cursor over the photo at right, you'll note that I was joined as a racing fan this morning by my "grand-dog" Vadar who is visiting for two weeks. We've all remarked about how he is such a smart puppy (he's only 3!). But here is photographic proof......how can you possibly question how smart he is when it's clear that he too is a thoroughbred racing fan!
Saturday June 23: Royal Ascot Day 5
The day's selections began with a thrilling, story-telling, near unbelievable worst decision in horse racing history running of the Group 1 Diamond Jubilee stakes at Royal Ascot. It was the long awaited "coming out party" for what is considered to be one of the best horses in racing, if not all time - the Australian wonderhorse, Black Cavier who is unbeaten in 21 straight starts, nearly all in Group 1 competition. But since this was her first try beyond facing Australian horses - generally considered a cut below the best Europeans - there was some minor question about her today. As I watched the pre-race build-up it was the general consensus that on paper and if she ran her "A" game race she was much, much better than anyone facing her today. However as the TVG broadcasters repeated several times, it is horse racing and sometimes funny things happen. What classic foreshadowing it turned out to be! As for me, I thought she was nearly unbeatable barring something bizzare and unforeseen. She was, on talent alone, much the superior sprinter in here. She had trained well at Royal Ascot and apparently had adapted from her 36 hour journey to get there quite well. I got even more confidence when I read and heard that her trainer said she hadn't been this good in nearly two years. She had the far outside post on a straight-away course so she'd be out of trouble, and she had tactical speed - no traffic problems today. I was all-in for a $50 bill. They broke out cleanly and right away she was rating in third just off the longshot leader, and you could just sense that she was sitting on a winning effort, just waiting for her cue. Her jockey, Luke Nolen, got busy on her with two furlongs to go and she spurted to the lead. But it was clear - at least to me - that she wasn't going to coast home with a record-setting or "oh my goodness" type of run as Frankel had demonstrated on Tuesday. Still, she was clear with less than a furlong to go. And then with about 100 yards to go Nolen literally stopped riding as though he'd already passed the finish line. Little did he know that the only sprinter given any semblance of a chance to upset Black Cavier was closing with a rush. With about 20 yards to go Nolen saw the danger and asked Black Cavier for one last burst. She won, but it was by the oh-so-narrowest of margins that required a photo to confirm it. Afterwards Nolen admitted he had stopped riding her to let her coast to the finish, but he described her as not going into an idle mode, but she shut down. That he was not prepared for.
Of course, as any apprentice jockey will tell you, you have to ride to the wire - especially in a added money event, much less on the world stage of Royal Ascot with a reputation on the line. In terms of the financial backing, I heard - at last report - that there had been $13 million bet to win on the race, with $11.7 million - 90% of it - on Black Cavier. It was also reported that over 10,000 Australians had traveled to Royal Ascot to see their heroine, and as you can seen in the video, thousands gathered in Melbourne to watch on a big screen video jumbotron. The champion prevailed however, and it was reported shortly after the race that she was "not right." The day following the race her trainer and the veterinarians who examined her confirmed that she had run the race with two torn muscles and a severe bruising to her hind quarters. It was also interesting to read that in the last twelve months she'd only had 21 days off from training & racing, and that throughout her career June has been her month to relax and recharge. So she apparently came into the race overworked, past her peak, and now we find out bruised and injured. And to add to the obstacles her jockey stops riding before the race is over, and in spite of all this, she wins anyway for her 22nd victory in a row. That my friends is the stuff that racing legends are made of! Shortly after that dramatic race I headed out to Calder for a full day of racing and I had high hopes of getting back on track with my selections. The month of June has featured several racing days where either I missed my normal amount of winners or I won 30% or more but lost money due to payoffs and money management. On track it was not a great day, but it was not a bad one - it was typical and when I left to come home my success for the day would hinge on the final eleven selections I'd made as I left. But first, let's go back to see how the day unfolded.......... Of the first five races I bet on to start the day I was a winner in three of them. Included in that collection was my co-best of the day at Calder where Beloveda was much, MUCH the best in a starter allowance. She was purely the class of the field, but she was sprinting for the first time. Could she race at the quicker pace? Not only could she, she went to the lead and wired the field easily! Came right back with an odds-od standout at Monmouth. I missed for the first of MANY times at Churchill Downs.....sigh...... before coming right back at Calder where I doubled the bet on Vital Victory. He looked easily best in the 3rd which was off the turf. Her last was a career best, but it wouldn't take anything that good to take down this group, and she was indeed easily best. I was surprised to get 9/5 on her, but gladly accepted the nearly $30 in winnings! I missed three in a row, only one an added money investment before scoring again. I notched my first win in Chicago at Arlington Park when Sheriff Bart looked to be spinning his wheels through the turn, but found another gear and blew by the front trio. He paid a nice $6.40 and I collected over $16. Fifteen minutes later I scored at Churchill in what would prove to be my lone winner there. Of course Danger Storm was a short 3-5 at post time and I had the bare minimum on him. But, even that wasn't an easy score. I had typed onto my analysis sheet, and had printed Jill Byrne's analysis sheet, both of which clearly indicated Danger Storm was the #3 horse in the field. But when I typed up my selection sheet for the day with ALL the races by post times, I had mis-typed and labled him as the #2 runner. With two minutes to go and the horses approaching the gate I looked and saw he was 18/1 - and that seemed HIGHLY unlikely for a runner I thought would be odds on. A quick check of the Form and saw I had the wrong ticket. Mad dash to the window and got the ticket exchanged as they were loading in. Not that the $8 in winnings was something to write home about, but it would have been so much in keeping with what's been happening at Churchill for me to have missed the winner even though I HAD the winner! Wow..... I went into my seemingly typical mid-day slump next. Nine straight races without a score - in fact I only ran second once in that string. I wasn't too bothered however as I thought it was a "balancing out" since I'd scored in six of the first eleven picks on the day. One thing I will say, again, about my handicapping and racing adventures in regards to my confidence......I've learned that I WILL score and in the end it WILL be around 30% winners. So, when I'm not cashing, I keep to my plan. With that in mind my next pick was a triple investment at Arlington. Arcade went right to the front, put away the pace pressure and drew clear like a 3/5 runner should. HORRAY, I'm back in the winner's circle! I missed with what I thought might be a really solid score at Churchill in their feature race but didn't let that deter me from my investment in the Calder feature.
The Mecke Stakes was originally carded to be on the turf, but it had been raining all week. So I was pretty sure it would move to the main track. Where's Sterling was a graded stakes winner against overnight, local handicap horses. He not only towered over them today, but as evidence of that he'd won the Memorial Day Handicap - when I didn't look at the entries and missed him! - by earning a 107 Beyer. I made him my co-best of the day. But as the afternoon wore on, I read an article about him in the Daily Racing Form. His trainer and owner both said that he just appeared to tower over the local runners, so it was a good spot to get him another win. And I thought to myself, he's just TONS the best in here. So I upped the bet from a $20 to a $30 win bet. He was farther back in the far turn than I would have liked, and I did NOT like how track announcer Bobby Newman called that his rider was "really working on him" to get him involved, but once he started running, it was just a matter of (a) where would he catch the leaders, and (b) how much would he win by :) I was standing right at the finish line to snap his photo as my BEST of the Day at Calder. A quick picture of myself holding the winning ticket (see at right) and I was headed home to watch the later races on the big screen or on the computer. The first replay I watched was a winner on the grass in a turf sprint at Hollywood - that's cool, here we go I thought! But then I missed in two more before watching the Grade 1 Mother Goose from Belmont live on the big screen. I was completely against the favorite Contested who was trying a real distance today for the first time. I thought she was highly overrated as her last two wins she'd been allowed to set an easy pace loose on the lead. I was so right on that count as she faded at the top of the lane. But my pick, the Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can did not fire and she simply passed the tiring favorite, only to get third. In a four horse field the two longshots completed the exacta. :( But, in the very next race I watched live on the big screen was the Monmouth feature, the Grade 3 Boiling Springs Handicap. Dancing Solo cruised along right off the heels of a longshot pace setter through mild pace fractions, then blew by with plenty left to hold off the favorite. Doubled that bet and collected nearly $30. So now I'm two for five with the post-race day selections. All I need is about three more to have a winning day! Not in the cards.....2nd at 9/2 in the Calder finale; 5th at 7/1 in the Churchill finale. 9th at 2/1 on the Belmont turf with the favorite who looked MUCH the best on paper. 4th at 7/5 at Hollywood; had the 2/1 favorite on the turf in the 10th at Arlington, set an easy pace with my triple investment, then when the field came to her, she had absolutely nothing - 9th. WOW. And so it came down to the final race on my card, the feature at Hollywood, the Grade 2 Hollywood Oaks. I liked Eden's Moon to rebound today as the loose-on-the lead speed. She was not allowed to cruise at her own pace, but by the time they hit the far turn she was in command. If you look at the screen-shots below you can see it was a thrilling, though disappointing stretch duel. I edged clear of the 7/2 third choice as we straightened for home, then that one came back to pass Eden's Moon; but at the 16th pole she re-rallied and I was certain I had the winner as she appeared to be about a half length clear and drawing away (3rd photo), but one last surge and I was JUST nailed on the wire - fourth photo. So I finished the day 10 for 35 - a "nearly normal" 29%, but the 4-for-21 finish after starting 6-for-14 was too much to overcome, especially without any real price runners scoring for me. In fact, of the ten winners, I had ONE that paid more than $5 and change......hard to profit with those kind of payoffs. One last day of racing this week at Churchill Downs on Sunday; I might have a pick or two at the Woodbine card for the Queen's Plate card and maybe a pick or two at Hollywood where it is closing day before the "Fair Circuit" opens as a prelude to Del Mar.....my next handicapping project!
Sunday June 24
Today I had my Churchill Downs selections, but there were big races at both Woodbine - it was Queen's Plate Day - and at Hollywood Park the feature was the Grade 2 Beverly Hills. I did not handicap any of those races, so I looked at the analysis online and decided the play the races. But I made the decision that no matter if I swept all the races or lost them all I would not take credit for any wins, or the "blame" for any losses as I had not handicapped them. They were just "fun" bets. At Woodbine I had back-to-back photo losses. As is so typical this month, in the first I had Upperline who was closing on the outside, couldn't get there in time......and then Simmard who was on the lead but could not hold off the closer! I did win the Beverly Hills when Capital Plan sat right off the slow pace, was asked for his best and was JUST able to hold off the second choice....exciting race! Next week is closing week at Churchill Downs, and so the end of my spring/summer handicapping project there. Also, Friday and Saturday are big races at Prairie Meadows - I played these last year - and Saturday night is a Louisiana Champions Day card featuring one of my favorite runners, Star Guitar. All these races are under the lights. Little Mike ships to California for one of the big races at Hollywood, the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile - probably going to meet with Mr. Commons, and The Factor will be running in the Grade 1 Triple Bend Handicap. Big weekend ahead! And the following weekend is the Summit of Speed at Calder!
Friday June 29
With the weather being so unreasonable in Louisville, track officials moved today's Twilight Racing from 3 pm to 6:30 pm. And in anticipation of continued hot weather on Sunday, post time was also set at 6:30 pm, making it the first all-night-time weekend in Churchill Downs history! In retrospect, after the last race tonight, I guess I should be happy that racing was cancelled yesterday.....yet another card with a single winner; and AGAIN, I'm all around the winners, just my horse is always the "wrong" one for the race. If I have the front-runner, I can't hang on.....if I have the closer, I can't get there. If I've got the price play, just not good enough to beat the favorite......if I've got the chalk, just can't beat the price horse. And to top off tonight's action, I lost a race in a manner that I've never lost one - you can't look more like a winner, and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in more unbelievable fashion that I did tonight. I KNEW I had the winner in the 9th at Churchill. Voodoo Daddy had been the loose-on-the-lead speed before three scratches, and now he was LONG gone. He was - as you see in the sequence of photos below - until you note that he just deciided to run THROUGH THE FENCE! WOW, and DOUBLE WOW! And then I was a non-threatening 5th in my final play. "Downs After Dark" - the last one of the spring/summer tomorrow (even though Sunday's card will be after dark). I will be playing races from Prairie Meadows and Evangeline Downs late into the night with my Churchill selections.
Friday June 29 / Saturday June 30
It has been a struggle these past couple of weeks to win consistently, and especially at Churchill Downs. This weekend featured to late nights of action with the Prairie Meadows Iowa Festival of Racing. So I had played the races Friday night as well as all day today. I won three of my first six races Friday and I thought I was on my way to having the "balance out" day, but then cashed on only two of the last fourteen, so I was anxious about today's races. In fact, I considered briefly not handicapping any afternoon races and simply playing the Prairie Meadows card with the "Downs After Dark" card and leave it at that. But then I decided that I would see if I liked anything at Calder and Belmont, and just play those two for a couple of hours, come home and settle in at the computer to watch the races online. I was surprised that I found six races I liked at Calder, but only a couple at Belmont. Then I handicapped Monmouth, and only had a couple that I liked. I finished my handicapping by finding some Hollywood races, because two of my favorites were running in their co-featured Grade 1 races - The Factor and Mr. Commons. I got up Saturday morning very early and checked my email and saw the alert that Star Guitar was running in the Louisiana Legends program tonight at Evangeline Downs, so I handicapped that card. And then, with time left in the morning hours I decided to add Arlington to the mix. So when I finally printed off my sheet I had two full pages of selections. My plan was to get to Calder for the opener and play through the seventh race - one of their features, The American Dreamer. In the first race I thought Our Plum Putting looked sharp - even though he'd lost in his last, a 2-lifetime event, and I don't like to play 2-lifetime races with a horse that has already lost a 2-lifetime event - I liked the fact he was first off the claim for Kirk Ziadie and that's a 41% win angle. He sat the perfect trip and then oved to the front in the final furlong and was clear on the wire. I thought he seemed to finish in an "odd way" like the jockey was struggling to handle him, but then shortly after it was official I saw on Facebook that this was the jockey's FIRST WIN EVER! Not sure I would have been as keen to double the bet had I know that ahead of time! Still, I won my first and I used my camera app on my iPhone to take a photo of me with the winning ticket and posted it on Facebook, posing the rhetorical question, "Could I win the next 37 races in a row!" Highly unlikely, but you can't win them all if you don't win the first one. My next play was in the second at Calder and I liked #1 Penitant Prayers to take them gate to wire. Within minutes of the finish of the 2nd at Calder I had a bet at Belmont, where I also liked the #1 horse. One of my favorite teller-ladies always says when I make multiple bets with the same number that "the horse has to run a long way!" So when I went to make the bet I remarked that this was one of "those bets!" We had a good chuckle about it. So I walked out to the rail and the gate opens and immediately Penitant Prayers leaps in the air losing several lengths......considering I thought he was a good bet because I thought he would lead them all the way around, I was obviously disappointed! Then track announcer Bobby Newman started talking about how Penitant Prayers was rank! When a horse is rank the rider can't get them to settle and they expend way too much energy. So Penitant Prayers not only trails the field, but he's way back and bearing out down the backstretch. Swell, I thought Then I happen to notice Newman is calling that the leader is Penitant Prayers' stablemate. Not uncommon, but when he says it again, I wonder, is Penitant Prayers part of an entry? By now they've reached the 16th pole near where I'm standing and I can see the saddle cloth - sure enough, it's a number 1-a! I am winning! What great luck! And he wins by daylight.....so even though my horse didn't win the race, I WON! Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good! 
I can't believe my good luck as I walk back inside. I quickly make my way to the "Winner's Edge" room which has many big screen TV monitors and take a seat in front of a big screen that has the Belmont race on it. They are half way down the backstretch and my selection, Won Kool Kid - who was 10/1 on the morning line - is 5/1 and sitting in the pocket about third as they hit the far turn. I can tell the rider has plenty of horse as they come out of the turn, and he asks him to shoot through an opening on the inside. Quickly Won Kool Kid is clear by daylight and he runs away to win without a problem! I wait for the prices and then they come up - $13.20 to win! WHOOOO HOOOOOO! I am cashing for over $30 - I am 3-for-3 - and I am off to a very good start to my day at the races! The next race on my card is from Monmouth, and my pick was 5/2 as they approach the gate. But by the time they are hitting the far turn, suddenly I am the 8/5 favorite. I surge to the front in mid-stretch, only to give way to the second choice......second. Grrrr....guess I won't go undefeated I think. Time for the third at Calder and my selection for this turf maiden special is Sadie's Princess. In the early betting she is 6/1 and I've doubled the bet on her. I'm counting out in my head how this would be a big pay day. But the longer the betting goes on, the lower the price goes. Finally as they arrive at the gate I'm the 8/5 favorite. A longshot sets the pace to the far turn, and I can tell that top local jockey Luis Saez has plenty of horse under him. He manages the race perfectly, sitting just outside the longshot, and when they straighten for home and the finishers began to gain momentum, Saez asks Sadie for her best and she accelerates away from the field. I can tell as the field runs through the stretch that no one is making any progress on me, and I finish easily in front! WHOO HOOO - squared! I win, again! THREE IN A ROW at Calder.....I truly am having a very good day! I missed at Belmont when Succint leads from gate to final 100 yards, and surrenders the lead late, second. Next up is my first selection from Arlington. Oddly, the opener at Arlington is a stakes race. That's unusual, and to add to the "oddness" of the day in Chicago, one of my favorite on-air handicapper's - and quite the looker - Jessica Pacheco has glasses on today. She's never had glasses on before....weird! I win with a horse ridden by a winless rider; I win with an entry-mate that I didn't know was an entry-mate; I win with a price horse; I win a third in a row at Calder when I considered not handicapping; and Jessica in glasses.........
My pick is Lady Candidate in the Arlington stakes opener. She won her last, her first try over the synthetic surface with a huge Beyer - the big jump in the number tells me she likes the surface and no one has run anything close to this in their short careers. She sit a great trip to midway on the turn, blows by the early leaders and appears LONG GONE. I am already counting out my money until I see the closers quickly gaining on me. Uh oh. The rider is all out to hold on through the final 16th of a mile in this 8 furlong test, and though it's officially a photo finish, I'm confident I was on the wire first - see photos at left! Whew...... A bit of a break before the 5th at Calder. In this race, a 2-year-old maiden special, I like Brave Dave. Not much at all to go on as most of these are first time starters, but he blistered a best of FIFTY-ONE bullet work for today's race. Those bullet works - lesson learned from the late, great William L. Scott - often are the tip off that a good effort is forthcoming. He presses the pace to the top of the lane, makes his move and draw off! I've now won SIX of my first eight selections. I am truly enjoying the day! In my next race I have Whoppie I Ki O at Arlington on the turf. Listed at 4/1 I am pretty sure she'll be a price with the outside draw, and her penchant for needing the lead. But I know the key here - the jockey today is one of the best at nursing a horse on the lead - E.T. Baird. Sure enough he is quickly clear on the lead and I think I might be home free. But nearing the far turn another horse comes to me and presses me. I swear it looked like Baird looked over and said something to the other jockey - I would be guessing, "What are you doing? You are just ruining it for both of us!" He quicly puts that one away, but having to pick up the pace through that quarter mile costs him in the final 200 yards and he weakens to be second, beaten less than a length. Within minutes it is time for the next at Calder - and I have Westbound Train on the turf. I'm thinking he sits right off the pace and blows them away like Sadie's Princess. But instead Saez - or the horse, couldn't tell - breaks like a quarter horse out of the gate and sprints, I mean SPRINTS to the first turn. Saez finally gets him to settle, but I think that may end up costing me. He is clear into the stretch, opens up a couple lengths, but in the final five jumps the closers catch him and it is a three-way-photo. I knew though, the nose that was on the wire was NOT mine.....3rd......sigh.......
Another price play at Belmont doesn't pan out :( And now it's time for my final live bet, The American Dreamer Stakes. I am hopeful that Ravelo's Boy will draw a lot of support at the windows, having last raced in the Grade 1 Belmont, because I think my pick Empire Builder is a better horse. But as I make my way to the rail it is Empire Builder who is the favorite. While Ravelo Boy did draw support - he's 9/5 at post time, I'm bet down to 7/5. I'm not sure he's THAT much of a cinch to win, but as they come through the stretch he IS THAT GOOD. And I win - AGAIN! FIVE WINS AT CALDER.......wow, what a day, especially - as I said - when I considered not even handicapping the card! I kept the Empire Maker ticket with my money and headed for the car. Earlier I'd made all of the Hollywood, Monmouth, and Arlington bets with my cash - figuring to play the Churchill, Evangeline, and Prairie Meadows races through my Twin Spires account. I made my "BET of the Day" on Mr. Commons with cash, so I decided to split my "Best of the Day" bet on Star Guitar. Part of that is because I was near certain that Star Guitar would win and if I wanted to up the bet to equal that of Mr. Commons I'd make the second half of it online. So I forked over $170 in cash for my last set of bets. That's a lot of cash to recoup, but with two big bets it wouldn't take much to get it all back - if I'm right! As I drove home and considered how I'd won 7 out of 12, I began to wonder about how the rest of the day would go. I had a fleeting thought that perhaps I should just keep the bets I had and not bet anymore; but then again, what if today is one of "those days" where I cash over twenty tickets? Conversely, I considered, with seven wins already, I could conceivably lose the next twelve races and I'd be 7-for-24, about 30%. I didn't like the prospect of that. Finally, I reconciled that as much as I want to win money, and do not like losing money, I handicap as a hobby. The winning the race - regardless of payout is my satisfaction. If I need to get more cash at some point, then that's what my "retirement money is for" - at least my hobby isn't shopping where once I've had my enjoyment the cash is gone. By the time I got home I'd only missed the one race, and that was the opener at Hollywood. So I opened the online program and watched. I had figured that Grumpy Small Mouth - I know, interesting name, eh? - would be a short price. But he was even money, and I was ok with that in a field of six. He stalked the pace and was clear on the wire as they sprinted over the Hollywod turf course. I missed at 7/1 at Arlington, but came right back with a double bet at Monmouth. I thought Millennium Lakes just looked MUCH the best on paper, and I'd figured she'd go off at odds-on; but somehow the crowd let her go off at 2/1. Easily the best and paid $6.20, another $30 cash out! I missed at Belmont - surprised honestly - when the Euro import from the same connections that brought us the best filly/mare turf horse last summer, and paid over $3 million for her, was never a threat....5th of six. But I came right back to score in the Lamplighter Stakes at Monmouth. I thought before I left Calder about how this is the kind of race where I think I know something and I should at least double the bet, but then decided to stick with my original plan. She'd come off a layoff last year and was a close second in a Calder stakes, then in her second start leaped up to a 92 Beyer and buried a Calder stakes field. Her last......a close second in a Monmouth stakes, and now today - 6/1 on the morning line. Sure enough, when they hit the far turn, I knew - she accelerated away and won. Paid $12.60 and I should have cashed for $60+ instead of $31+. I'm thinking at this point, that maybe this IS one of those days. I've already cashed three out of five of the bets I made before I left and have over $70 back of the investments. Missed when Ariana D didn't fire in the Grade 3 Chicago Handicap at Arlington and then it was time for the next "big" bet - I'd made The Factor a "Prime Time" play in the Grade 1 Triple Bend at Hollywood. After all he was 4-for-4 at today's 7 furlong distance. He was coming back off a mis-fire in Dubai, but when I was against Game On Dude off a similar experience, he blew away the Grade 2 Californian and The Factor has the same trainer, Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. RIght to the front as he always does, but he didn't look to have that acceleration that is typical when he's "on" and he was caught late by a runner who's trainer had just been operated on for a brain tumor. At least a "feel good" story to soften the blow of my loss. Came right back to take down the finale at Arlington when Code of Conduct shot through an opening along the rail and scored at $7.60 over the grass there. Like with Successful Song, I'd missed with an added money bet, then cashed with the minimum play. Lost my first of the "Louisiana Legends" stakes at Evangeline when even money She's Prado's Ido disappointed - 3rd - at even money. I dueled on the lead through swift fractions in a one-mile turf event at Hollywood, put away the other speed and nearly held on to the favorite, 2nd with a double play at 5/2. Then I scored in the next - also at Hollywood- when Take Control was allowed to go off at 3/1. He was coming off a 16 month layoff, but I was drawn to the fact that Bob Baffert was an amazing 39% with runners off extended breaks. I missed on two in a row, and now it was time for the Mr. Commons race. With one of my favorite turf horses, Little Mike, shipping out west I knew there would be ample front-running pace to set up his late kick. I was willing to excuse his last two close misses at odds on as I thought today would be the day we'd get a price and I wasn't going to miss it. Sure enough he was an astounding 2/1. My heart was pounding as they turned for home as he was rallying and at 2/1 I stood to cash for $150 at least and win nearly all the money I bet before I left in one fell swoop. But then he flattened out and didn't have the stretch punch I was looking for. Fourth. I took small consolation that I was correct in playing against Little Mike today. Missed on three more, one another "prime time" bet at Churchill where former multiple graded stakes winner Sassy Image confirmed, much to my sadness, that she's not the same animal she was last year. Finally a winner when in the Louisiana Legends Mile Top Cat Boogie got out to an easy lead and found the extra furlong of the mile test no problem. I was happy to get 8/5 and collect the nearly $30. In the next four races I was third in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor, 5th in the 7th at Churchill, then back-to-back seconds (the first a photo) at Evangeline and Prairie Meadows. The 8th at Prairie Meadows was the Grade 3 Iowa Derby. I have never been a fan of Hansen, the "bogus" Juvenile champion from last year, but twice I have bet him because he's just laid over the field. I will grant you he is talented, I just don't think he's one of the elite of his generation. But in a four horse field for the Grade 3 Iowa Derby. No problem. He floated up to 2/5 which was absolute larceny, but was 1/9 by the time they left the gate. He looked to be in control to the far turn, then it looked like the local star was going to test him but jockey Ramon Dominguez (who'd ridden that afternoon in New York, then flown here) simply shook the reins and it was all over. Gone by daylight without ever really having to run. Though I didn't profit much, it was a cashed ticket!
Within the next ten minutes it was time for the final "BEST" of the day. Star Guitar was facing only five in the Louisiana Legends Classic. I wasn't so keen on the fact that his normal rider, Churchill's leading jockey Corey Lanerie, had stayed in Kentucky to ride the "Downs After Dark" card. But the rider had been on him before - once when I'd ridden him. All Star Guitar has done is win his last nine in a row; was 6-for-6 at Evangeline Downs; was 10-for-11 at this distance and 23-out-of-29 for his career. But, he's a year older and I wondered about if he was still on his game. In the pre-race analysis his trainer Albert Stall was interviewed. I gained great confidence when he was asked the question point blank, was Star Guitar losing a step, was the time to call it quits coming? And Stall emphatically said that Star Guitar looked as good as ever in preparation for this race. He was 1/9 through all the pre-race betting. I added twenty more online dollars to my $30 from the track. I was amazed when his odds ticked up to 1/5, but it was short lived, back to 1/9. But as they were making their way to the gate he again went to 1/5. Then as they were starting to load, 2/5. Oh my goodness, what is the crowd thinking? The #1 horse had made it a close finish with him once, but I didn't think he'd do it again. Then, miracles of miracles.....in just a five horse field, this winner of 23 races - the consensus all-time greatest Louisiana-bred - was allowed to float up to an astounding 3/5. He stalked the pace, made his move and was edging clear to win by about a length and a half. And though it seemed close, he was never really asked to run like his life depended on it. As I awaiting the prices I kept thinking, "Is it possible that he'll pay $3.40 instead of $3.20?" IT WAS! I was collecting $85! With only two races left I did my totals. How ironic - I was just barely behind breaking even. Nearly twelve hours of racing.....nearly 40 races, and it came down to the last two at Churchill. 4th and 9th (at 21/1). So for the day I was behind a touch, but I'd cashed on FIFTEEN of forty races and that was nearly 40% winners. No matter how you cut it, that's good handicapping. And though I know it sounds like sour grapes, I couldn't help but think how very close today/tonight had come to being that BIG DAY I've been wanting. If Mr. Commons scores I'm looking at a 16-for-40 day, an even 40% and I'm about $150 ahead. If I double the bet on Successful Son I'm a winner....if The Factor, or Sassy Image wins I'm a winner. If Special Jo wins the Bashford Manor or Quick Praise wins the 9th at Churchill I'm a winner. I had a legitimate shot at the Grade 3 Cornhusker at 13/1 when 4th to a loose-on-the lead runner. If Ice Cream Silence wins - instead of second - in the Grade 3 Iowa Oaks I'm a winner. If Ricspretentiousgal isn't pushed so hard and wins the 7th at Hollywood I'm a winner. Even if Mr. Commons doesn't win and TWO of all these "IFs" come home I'm a winner. Just think if three or four of them or Mr. Commons scores. It truly is such a game of inches. So very close to a big day......but I'll remember today as the day I was on fire at Calder, cashed on Star Guitar again, and had nearly 40% winners!
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