August 2012

Calder / Summer Racing 2012

August 2012

 

 

Wednesday August 1: A New Month - Happy Birthday to ME!

 

Today was not only the start of a new racing month - the last of the long summer season - but it was also my birthday! Had a very good day with the family and thoroughly enjoyed the nearly 40 birthday wishes from all my Facebook friends. As the last month of the summer season starts, I am going off a fabulous July. I had a great month of picking winners, getting price horses, and having a strong ROI. I was able to bring up my overall ROI to $1.87 in spite of playing nearly 100 less races. I also got off to a great start to the Del Mar Project where I'm hitting my 30% winners AND am over $100 ahead after two weeks.  So on to the day's racing. Well, it could not have started off any better :) Today the best horse in the world - generally agreed upon international opinion - Frankel was running in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes. The post time was 10:10 am in the morning. He was facing only three rivals today, one of which was his stablemate. Stranger things have happened, but he seemed to be as close to a virtual "lock" as there is in racing. I thought a $50 investment, to earn $5 was well worth the bet......but the additional $50 to get a total investment of $100 to get another $5 seemed out of line to me. Frankel came out smoothly, sat comfortably off his pace-setting stablemate and then accelerated away with a devestating burst of energy that left the others struggling just to stay in the same zip code! Easy - peasy - pie to start off the racing month! WHOOOO HOOOOOO!   I don't know why I hadn't been following my own advice at Saratoga, but I started today............

 

Because I am handicapping Del Mar every day I had told myself that I'd look at the entries and just automatically take all Pletcher 2-year-olds in MSW races - just as I had done last summer, and this winter at Gulfstream.   But for some reason I had not yet done this. So Wednesday I looked at the entries and found three for the first three days of racing. Today it was Corail in the 5th. When I went to download the past performances for Friday's Del Mar card I noticed a headline in the DRF about Saginaw running in the feature race today, the James Morrissey Stakes. Now I'd seen this guy run this spring and he's a dominant sprinter in the New York-bred stakes. I figured he would be odds-on, but was worth a double investment. Well, in the first race Corail wired the field easily, and the crowd was on board at 4/5. Got back nearly $20, and I'm two for two on my birthday. Then Saginaw got off to a slow start, but quickly moved into position by the mid-way point up the backstretch. On the turn he collared the leader and ran away from the field. The most amazing thing was that as he sat in fifth I didn't know his odds, but as he moved to the leader I saw he was 5/2.....are you serious? I was sure he'd be odds-on, but instead I"m looking at $7 at least. He walked with the race and paid a great $7.30! I got back over $35 and I am three-for-three!   The Three races at Del Mar were kind of anti-climatic - even more so when I ran third, 10th, and 7th.  But no matter as I was 50% for the day (6/3-0-1) and came out ahead AGAIN....my fourth consecutive day of profiting going back to last Friday.

 

Saturday August 4

It all depends on how you look at it today --> I hit seven of twenty-one selections today, an excellent 33% and scored with three of my four "BEST" bets of the day. But I still managed to come out far behind on the money line for the day as I had added-investments in nearly all of the Saratoga races and found my way to the winner's circle on only two occassions. And there was another common theme today: in so very many races I thought to my self, "how far back can I trail the field?" and then I'd come running, to late.......and I had FIVE second place finishes. Here's a recap to my racing Saturday....... I played at home today because the family was in town and tomorrow is the day they head back to Ohio. The first race was a triple bet where EVERYONE thought Stopshoppingmaria was much the best in an allowance turf sprint opener at Saratoga. She was sent off at 1/5, rated to the top of the stretch and then had no response through the lane. Missed in the second, and then in the third at Saratoga I had a Todd Pletcher first-timer. But the winner won by daylight and looked so good he's being pointed for the Grade 1 Hopeful - I was clearly second best. I then ran back-to-back seconds at Mountaineer - where I'd handicapped their stakes-laden card because today was the Grade 3 West Virginia Derby. In their opener, the Mountaineer Juvenile, I went with unbeaten Circle Unbroken who was coming off a win in the Grade 3 Bashford Manor at Churchill. He rated off the speed, took over on the turn, but was outfinished by a neck by the second choice. In the second, the West Virginia Chairman's Cup, the distance was 4 1/2 furlongs. My triple investment was on Immortal Eyes who I'd won with before. This multi-stakes winner held a record of 3-for-22 in all races OTHER than at today's distance, and a superlative 10/8-2-0 at the 4 1/2 furlong distance. I thought he was a front-runner/pace presser, but like so many today he was off a step slowly and then raced well off the pace in 7th. He made a bold move entering the stretch and was flying late.....too late, 2nd. In the fifth at Saratoga, another Todd Pletcher 2yo maiden going two turns on the turf - well back, no stretch punch, fifth. FINALLY a winner in the 6th where Poliziotto won over the Saratoga turf. I made so much money last summer with the Saratoga Handicapper's 40% Club angle with Chad Brown maidens - and so it was with Poliziotto. I guess the crowd read the book as well, as he was 4/5 at post time. My plan had been to triple the bet in the 7th on the Todd Pletcher 2nd time 2yo maiden Palace Malie. Pletcher scores an amazing 29% with debut runners, but is even stronger with second time starters --> 35%. But when I had the pre-race analysis on for the day DRF editor Steven Crist said, "I would not risk any money on this race trying to beat Palace Malice." WOW....that's a huge endorsement as he's one of those "value" players. So I upped the bet to a "BEST" of the day $20 investment. EASILY......., whooo hoooo two in a row! I capped off a "trifecta" when I scored my third in the row at Mountaineer with Guam Typhoon in the Senator Robert R. Byrd Memorial. But as you can see in the photo at right below, it was oh so close! He went off at 7/5, the second "highest" price of the day and I only had a minimum bet on him.

 

Missed three in a row next......In the De La Rose Stakes at Saratoga I liked Dealbata, who had been my pick in the Grade 3 Matchmaker last Saturday, so I liked her even more in this listed stake. WAY too far back, and was flying late through traffic and through a narrow opening on the rail - second beaten less than a length......wow. At Del Mar I was again too far back, and rallied to late to be third. And I topped it off with a 4th when Low Gear Power failed to close with any real interest at 3/2. My only bet at Calder, where Horse-for-the-Course Indiano figured to be the favorite in the Giant Ryan Stakes. He stalked a very hot pace to the turn, then appeared as track announcer Bobby Newman called, to be really working hard to keep the leader within his sights. But trainer Marty Wolfson was quoted afterwards that he was running within himself. Top jockey Luis Saez asked him as they turned for home and he was LONG GONE as today's BEST at Calder.   In the West Virginia Derby Hansen dueled through a wicked six furlongs and took the lead, but going nine furlongs he had nothing for the stretch, and was 4th. In the Grade 1 Whitney three horses dueled through sizzling fractions, but my pick Ron the Greek was SOOOO far back that when he came running - and of course had to go wide on the turn - that he was a fast closing second, too little, too late......AGAIN.

 

I went on a three race win streak, but failed to bet properly. At Saratoga (see above) I had Dominus as a double bet. I wanted to see what Dave Liften thought, but for some reason I kept typing the wrong password to get into the DRF analysis. Finally saw it was his "Best" and they were getting into the gate as I tried to double my double bet.....too late. He walked with it......wow. Then in the 5th at Del Mar I'd listed on my Del Mar analysis that Rolling Fog was a $20 bet, my "Best" there - for some reason on my selection sheet for the day I transferred the Del Mar plays here and listed him as a $5 bet. Again, not that this would have made a huge dent in the bottom line since he went off, like Dominus at 4/5. I capped the three-race win streak when for the first and ONLY time today, Capo Bastone was W-E-L-L behind the field in a 5 1/2 furlong maiden special sprint for Del Mar juveniles. But - he was a Del Mar Handicapper 40% Club play (John Sadler saddling a horse with Garret Gomez on board) - when they hit the top of the lane he just FLEW by them all to win without ever being asked by Gomez. I finished the day when I went against the favorite at Del Mar in the Grade 1 Hirsch - after she'd been my "BEST" last time and lost....of course she won today and my pick was a late-running third; then I was a distant 11th at 26-1 in the finale with another 40% Club play. Liked all the winners, but did not care for the red line at the bottom of the ledger today.

 

August 5: Only ONE winner, but ooooohhhhh my, what a WINNER!

 

Today was just the opposite of yesterday. I had a very nice win percentage overall yesterday with 7 out of 21 for a 33% average, but today I had only one winner. Now, if I were picking I would go for the high percent of winners with a profit; but if I HAD to choose, then I'll take today over yesterday! I missed at Saratoga where Shackleford was gunning to be one of a handful of Grade 1 winners who'd won at 6 furlongs and at a classic distance - last at 6/5. At Del Mar I missed the first two picks. And then it was THE RACE! Let's set this up properly....... I had handicapped on Friday so I really had no idea of the odds, but if you look at my analysis below I wrote that #6-Pontchatrain fit perfectly with the Del Mar Handicapper's 40% Club for trainer Tom Proctor. he scores an amazing 57% with Maiden Specials at the meet. When I had bought the Del Mar Handicapper I'd also purchased the DMR Trainer Detail book which listed ever winner over the last three years. I had done a summary book and when I looked up Tom Proctor I noticed something....so I looked in the Detail book and there it was - Proctor had won six races over the last three years - ALL owned by Glen Hill Farms and four of them MSW (the 57% angle). Pontchatrain: Owned by Glen Hill Farms! So I tripled the bet as my "BEST." I knew that the DRF odds of 20/1 were W-A-Y off. So this morning when I looked at the ML odds I was surprised he was listed at 12/1! I thought at the time that he would certainly be well bet down to probably second or third choice. Because of the difference in time zones I was watching "Big Brother 14" when I got a text from Joel (remember him from the day on track?)....his text, "The 6th race just hit BIG!" I knew immediately which race he was talking about! I texted back I was watching the replays later. So I knew I'd won, but with the $15 bet - and he generally follows my plays - I thought maybe we won big because of the bet and an $8 or $10 payout. I could not believe when they left the post - see the video at right or the pics below, that he'd gone off at an amazing 17/1!

 

In a way I was glad I knew the outcome because I probably would have been so nervous watching the replay. Pontchatrain was third turning for home and then was grinding away at the leader. He collared the two leaders about 50 yards from the wire and two of them hit it NEARLY together. I thought I was the winner, but if I'd been watching the replay "live" I would have been nervous. HE WON! And the payoff was a HUGE $37.00 for a $2 bet.....but remember, he was my "BEST" of the day and I'd tripled the bet!   Do the math my friend ......that's a cashed ticket worth $277.50! WHOOOO HOOOOO! I immediately made a video and sent a BIG THANK YOU to author Jim Mazur of the Del Mar Handicapper. Never would have had that one without you my friend!

 

 

 

August 8 - Big scores at the Spa to start the day.....And at Del Mar to end the day!

I told Kim today that this was a "big day" in racing.....why, she asked....because at Saratoga it was the return of 2-year-old champion My Miss Aurelia who had not raced since we saw her at the Breeders' Cup last November. I had looked over the entries for Saratoga, looking for "automatic" plays on the day and I found two of them...... in the opener I went with Chad Brown's maiden Physical Delivery (he's a Saratoga Handicapper 40% Club member with Spa maidens). She was 8/5 on the morning line, but was second choice at 7/2....and she was second best to the favorite who was impressive. Then in the third I found a Todd Pletcher two-year-old first time starter, My Emma. MUCH the best, and I'd doubled the bet to collect $26 and put me ahead for the day heading into the feature.  I debated about how to play My Miss Aurelia because IF she ran her race she was TONS the best of these; but if she didn't there was the real chance she'd lose. I figured, however that her connections - and I read much the same - would not bring back an undefeated champion to the races just to "get a race into her." They would be looking to win without having to work hard - just have her nearly 100% ready. The next question was how much to bet at what was sure to be short odds. I finally decided she was the best and worth a "BEST" bet - $20 to win!

 

August 8 - Fantastic Fillies

   

When the gates opened My Miss Aurelia stumbled badly and was immediately last! But, jockey Julien Leparoux allowed her to gather herself and she glided into contention, moved to the leaders on the turn and then he asked her to run. She swooped by three-wide and drew off through the stretch like the champion she is. It was very exciting to be able to watch it live on twinspires as I logged on about 15 minutes before post time! WHOOO HOOOOO! Later that evening I watched the first half of the Del Mar replays on twinspires.com and won one of the first three when Smokey Lonesome came suring over the turf course in the third. And then I watched the Grade 3 Sorrento Stakes on the big screen where I'd recorded the "BET of the Day!" Executive Privilege was talked about as one of the best filies in the country and deserving of the 1/5 odds she was listed at as they approached the gate. And while her win was not as authoritative as everyone expected, it was a daylight win without really being asked. So, for the day I'd hit on both my "BEST" and was 4-for-7 for a clear profit on the day! Excellent way to start the week! I'm headed out to the races tomorrow for a full day of racing with six tracks on my selection sheet.

 

 

August 9 - BIG WIN at Del Mar.....again!

 

A G-L-O-R-I-O-U-S day at the races :) Today was an unofficial start to the school year as Kim had a Dept. Chair meeting and it figured to last many hours. So I handicapped six tracks for today and headed out to Calder a little after 1 pm (no plays until the 2nd at Saratoga). I had reservations about backing a Pletcher 2-year-old in a maiden claimer, but they do win and he looked the best of a bad field.....should have followed my hunches - no where to be found. But then I went on a tear --> I won the first play at Calder in the third when The Sense Angel ran away from the field. He was 4/1 at one point but was bet down to 4/5 by post time. I scored in a turf route at Delaware with a late run and then drew off as much the best. And in my "BEST" of the Day at Saratoga Todd Pletcher had a 1st-time two-year-old owned by Michael Repole. My only fear was that Pletcher had another runner in here who was 7/1. I thought long and hard about slamming the exacta, but decided to stick with what I do best. Overanalyzed ran away as MUCH the best - and the other Pletcher runner was second......grrrrr. Three in a row and I posed for the picture on the rail below. Missed on two races 2nd at Calder and then nothing at Arlington.....then another run with back-to-back wins!  In the fifth at Calder Rubysandpearls was nearly a pole in front at the wire. One of the winningest angles is the early speed, class drop from Maiden Special to Maiden Claiming. And top jockey Luis Saez was on board. I should have made him a "BEST" bet. Minutes later Loosenthesecondary wired the 3rd at Arlington - again as a short-priced favorite. But I had won five of my first eight and am looking like I'm going to have a really big day.  But then I went on a eight-race skid.....so close so many times. I was a late-running third at Saratoga, missed at Delaware. I had Short Shrift at 12/1 at Saratoga and he looked like he'd win at the top of the stretch, but finished 3rd beaten less than two lengths. Nowhere in back-to-back races but then I rallied late to just miss at Monmouth; then second best at Calder behind a runaway 2-year-old..........

 

After a no-show 6th at Arlington I finally - after an hour and a half was back in the winner's circle. At Monmouth Park we were on the turf in the 3rd - interesting side note --> Monmouth had a 4 pm first post today to try and draw bigger crowds, a la Churchill Downs. Anyway, the rail runner Dubai Time was dropping in class, ridden by Jersey Joe Bravo who was winning 45% for the barn. The crowd let him go off at nearly 3/1 and as they turned for home he blew by the field to score. He paid $7.60 and I collected nearly $40! Moments later I missed at Saratoga with the even money favorite, 3rd without a response through the lane.

 

And then, it happened........

In the opener at Del Mar I had picked In A Twinkling. This was NOT a Del Mar Handicapper angle, this was all me! He'd show good early speed in his last against better, first off a layoff and first off the claim and shipping from Texas to California. He stopped like he was shot, but that often leads to big prices when they come back with the handicapping angle known as "Early Speed / Class Drop." Today I thought top jockey Martin Garcia would be able to harness his speed and he'd have a chance to wire the field as the LONE SPEED. As you can see in the sequence of photos below, he broke sharply to the front and led easily into the turn. He took them down the backstretch in very moderate fractions without much pressure. Then on the turn when the field began to come to him he let it out a notch. But at the top of the lane was the big test - here came the closers and the pressers with their rallies.....would In A Twinkling have something left? Several guys behind me were calling out for the contenders, but when I saw In A Twinkling kick into a new gear I began snapping my fingers, clicking off the final yards and then finger-punched the air in the direction of the big screen when he scored......and his odds? EIGHTEEN-to-ONE! Yes, 18-1! He paid a whopping $39.20 and I got back nearly $100! WHOOOO HOOOOOOO!!!!! I am now guaranteed a winning day overall, and a big winning day at Del Mar!  

 

 

 

I led all the way at Arlington, only to be caught on the wire at 3/1 when I'd doubled the bet, then missed at Monmouth when I broke slowly as the favorite. And so I left with seven wins from 23 selections. If the percentages held up I SHOULD win one or two more I thought to myself. When I got home I was able to call up the last at Monmouth - another turf event, and I had Joe Bravo on board. Alluring Power looked to be the class and the speed of the field. It was almost comical to watch as Bravo set sail on the lead with absolutely no pressure. When the half mile went up in :50 I knew I was long gone. Who could have imagined that he'd leave the gate at better than 2/1! When the prices came up he'd earned a payoff of $6.40 and I collected over $30, just padding my winnings.  I waited for all the Del Mar races to be run before watching those final two replays. In the 4th I liked Van Brit on the turf. Jockey Garret Gomez was patient on the rail, but looked trapped there as they turned for home. But at the furlong pole a seam opened and he won by daylight motored down! More winnings for me!  In the final race, it was a turf sprint and I liked La Mano Nora. In a near mirror of the Van Brit race he was trapped behind horses, found room on the rail and it was a ding-dong finish.....the camera focused on me afterwards, and I thought I'd won AT TEN-to-ONE! But as you can see in the photo, it was an oh-so-close 2nd :( But a great day overall with 9 wins from 27 picks and a profit of nearly $70!

 

August 11 - Two "BEST" scores.....

Because I'm heading out for a full day of racing on Sunday I handicapped only Saratoga to go with my Del Mar selections. Unfortunately the rains came pouring down washing two of my turf picks off the board, and leading to the scratch of what had been my "BEST" of the day - a Todd Pletcher 2yo debut runner. But they left the featured Grade 2 Fourstardave on the grass as the final event of the 11 race card. Johnny Velasquez had him inside saving ground behind one of my favorite front-runners, Get Stormy all the way to the head of the lane and I could tell Wise Dan was full of run if he could find room. Nothing looked like it would open, but just as Velasquez had patiently ridden Union Rags up the rail in the Belmont he stuck to his inside path. A seam opened and the race was over.....Wise Dan exploded by the frontrunner and was clear under wraps in a dominant performance! WHOOO HOOOO!!!

While I was watching the TVG broadcast of the Saratoga card they did a promo for Remington Park's big race late tonight - the $200K Governor's Cup, and the headliner was another of my favorite's, Alternation. He looked to have one challenger, Prayer for Relief but they reported on TVG that the connections of Alternation were saying he was wound up and ready to run a top race. The race was thrilling. Prayer for Relief set the pace with Alternation just a head behind them. They accelerated coming out of the turn and Alternation looked to be about 3/4 of a length in front, but he floated about two paths wide and lost his lead. At the furlong pole they hooked up in a epic duel to the wire. Even though the commentators were unsure, and one even called it a "Dead Heat," I was pretty sure that Alternation's nose was down first. And it was! He'd left the gate at a paltry 1-5, but the crowd put a lot of late money on Prayer for Relief and Alternation ended up going off at 3/5. I had made him the "BEST BET" of the day and had invested $20 on him - so I got back over $30 to almost pull even for the day, as I had another slow day at Del Mar (after the big start to the week). But that was ok.....it was a good day for an "off day" from racing and I'm hoping for a big bounce-back day tomorrow with a lot winners on my L-O-N-G selection sheet!

 

August 12 - Another H-U-G-E Win at Del Mar.....the most profitable day in memory!

 

 

Saturday evening Kim and I went out for a "date-night" dinner; she'd been shopping during the day while I handicapped and had found a cute dress. She tried it on and asked if I liked it - well duh, but then she said she was thinking of wearing it to school.......what do you think? Uh, yeah :) That's my wife, she's with me....and she is so supportive of my passion for racing.  So, the racing on Sunday...... I had spent a lot of time handicapping on Saturday and had a total of seven tracks where I'd found races I liked. I didn't have a lot of "BIG" or "BEST" bets as there were not a lot of big stakes races on the Sunday calendar, but I found over 40 races that I wanted to bet on. And to be honest, I knew that for me to break even or make some money I would have to win at least a dozen of those races - that would be a big day of winning. I left the house around noon and was there in plenty of time for the Monmouth opener. I looked at the board as I walked into the simulcast area and saw that my pick, who I knew would be the obvious choice, was 1-9. WOW.....not going to make money like that, but still I had planned to bet $10 and a win is a win. By post time Snagglepuss had floated up to 1-2, which I thought was stealing considering all the things going for him. He cruised to the lead and leaving the turn looked long gone. But then a longshot came to him and it was a thrilling stretch duel with Snagglepuss eventually edging clear. Yay! Wait....Objection! They showed the replay from many, angles over and over again and I have to admit I did drift out, carrying the second place runner out about six paths. The only thing I could figure was that never did my horse really bump the other and never did that one seem to check, steady or even break stride. Finally......NO CHANGE! It's official! Whew! I doubled the bet at Saratoga as well, but was third. Lost my first at Calder where I was a price play at 5/1, but after prompting the pace I faded. I had handicapped Woodbine, which I don't play that often, and won my first there when Shenandoah Lady was much the best, as expected since she was everyone's top play in the Daily Racing Form. Minutes later (after a scratch at Saratoga) I scored again at Monmouth. Wils Reward was going first time for trainer Peter Walder - a BIG win angle, and he had top rider Elvis Trujillo on board....they often team together at Gulfstream in the winter. Swept to the lead on the turn and opened up to draw off for fun! I then went through what seems to be the inevitable stretch - sooooo many misses when I had the chance to win! The theme was to be leading at the top of the stretch or mid-stretch and then getting run down.............

 

Among the misses were three seconds and two thirds - with favorites and price plays....sigh. But finally after about an hour and a half I was back in the winner's circle, this time at Woodbine again. Can't Bluff Corey looked hoplessly beaten with 100 yards to go and was weaving all over the place, but then seemed to rediscover himself and surged just in time to win in a desperate photo - the video replay is well worth the watch!  After Can't Bluff Corey won, I hit right away again at Saratoga when B Shanny slipped up the rail to score as the 6/5 favorite with my double investment on him. I missed two more - led to deep stretch at 4/1 and broke slowly at 3/1 - might have won if not for that - before another obvious choice at Woodbine again....Calgary Cat won under a hand ride at 3/5. In the 6th at Saratoga there was an odds-on choice, but I went against and doubled the bet with top rider Ramon Dominguez on my choice at 4/1...2nd best to the favorite. Then I went on a nice run, winning three in a row.  The first was my co-best at Monmouth. it was a non-winners of 2 lifetime on the turf and I had Jersey Joe Bravo riding a horse dropping from open allowance company with paired Beyers in his last two. Probably should have gone even deeper into the bet, he walked with it at a nice 7/5 - with my triple bet I got back nearly $40.  Then I scored my only win at Calder at a whopping 2/5. I thought about doubling the bet or more, but at the low price and without a win yeat locally I passed up the chance. I was rewarded with a $7 return on the $5 bet! But then I "topped" that one by scoring at Ellis Park with a 1-5 shot....my $5 bet got back $6 - what to do with all the cash! My two "big wins" were followed by three disappointments leading up to a turf race at Saratoga.  It was a mile and a sixteenth in allowance company. Glamour N Glory had missed several times in a row - maybe she just doesn't care to win - but her Beyers were clearly superior, and top rider Ramon Dominguez was on. She was closing at the 16th pole and should have swept by, but you could tell.....she was happy to just be close enough - photo finish, 2nd.......

 

At Saratoga today they were having two graded stakes for two-year-olds....the Grade 2 Adirondack for the fillies and the Grade 2 Saratoga Special for the colts. Last year they ran the Adirondack on Sunday and the Special on Monday......how would I remember that? Because I was THERE! I got into town in time to go out and watch My Miss Aurelia (who won her comeback on Wednesday this week, see journal from Aug 8 above) win and then watched Union Rags score in the sea of slop that was the case for my full day at Saratoga on Monday. Anyway, I wanted to be home to watch the full hour of television coverage in HD of those races, so I bet one more race to watch live, and then planned to head home. That race was the Colleen Stakes at Monmouth. A five furlong turf sprint that featured Funfair. She had won her debut at Belmont in what was described as "dazzling" fashion. And she had the aforementioned Joe Bravo riding for Christophe Clemente - a 55% winning duo this summer. I had noted in my racing for to triple the bet, but on my sheet I had indicated a double bet. I made the double bet and as I was waiting for them to reach the post I opened my form, saw my mistake and rushed to the window to get the extra $5 down. Good for me - she WALKED with it! Got back nearly $25!   I made my bets for the rest of the day and headed to the car. At this point in time I had scored with ten selections, but the longest price had been $5.20. So even though I was having a good winning percentage day I knew I'd have to get at least one nice price to profit. AND I had to win with my "BEST" of the day to have any hope of making a profit. That bet was included in the $134 I invested in tickets in races I would watch at home.  The "BET of the DAY" was in the Adirondack with the highly regarded Todd Pletcher filly, Kauai Katie. I had won with her on opening day, but she had dazzled that day, earning a Beyer speed figure of 100! That is unheard of for a debut run.  Kauai Katie figured to win this race even if she regressed several lengths off that debut. And I figured that could be a possibility as she was coming back on relatively short rest, just three weeks, and with two-year-olds (especially fillies) they can be so unpredictable. So my original plan was to invest $25 or $30. Then it occured to me that my great mother & father in-laws had given me $25 for my birthday last week.....so there was the answer. $25 of my betting cash and the b'day cash for a $50 investment. I got home in time to watch the entire program, and I felt pretty confident after trainer Todd Pletcher was interviewed and he spoke very confidently about her. She was stretching to 6 1/2 furlongs today so I didn't want to see her set sizzling fractions, in fact I was hoping she'd relax off of a longshot's pace. But when the gate opened she burst to the lead. When they neared the turn and Tom Durkin called out the first quarter time in :21 and change I was a bit concerned. Midway on the turn she was not fully clear yet and the pace call was a torrid :44 and change. Uh oh.....but as their heads turned for home jockey Rosie Napravnik asked her to run and suddenly she was six in front! WHOOO HOOOOO! She started to tire in the final 16th, but it was way to late for anyone to catch her. And the price was fair - 2/5 - so I was going to collect $70 on my $50 investment. I'm happy. I scored with my "BEST" so even if I am just close to even I'll be content with the high winning percentage and that I was "right" with my strong convictions.

 

Of the bets I'd made when I left Calder I had six from Del Mar and a combined six from the other tracks. One was the Kauai Katie play, and I scored with a nice price play at Ellis - in fact it looked to be my "longshot of the day" when Ali's Birthday out dueled the favorite at 4/1 and paid $10.20. But I missed on the other four. I settled down to eat dinner and watch "Big Brother 14" with Kim and Brad and looked over my numbers. I'd watch the Del Mar replays later when all their races were over I decided. Prior to those final six, I stood at 12 wins for 33 selections (well over 30%) but I was behind about $40. Not bad. But I had $50 on the line at Del Mar......I knew I'd need to win at least one to maintain a "reasonable" loss for the day, and two wins would probably get me around even. After that we were looking at a profitable day.  It was around 10 pm when I moved to the computer to watch the seaside races. In the 2nd I had doubled the bet on Sophie's Secret. She was debuting for top trainer John Sadler with top rider Rafael Bejarano - couldn't believe she went off at 3/1 - could be a $40 cash-in! Right there on the turn, but no stretch punch, 3rd. Then I doubled the bet in the third on Ransom Canyon. He had been flying late to be 2nd early in the meet when I picked him. Garrett Gomez was riding, and he was a 42% winner (Del Mar Handicapper 40% Club) for trainer Tom Proctor. Surely he'd have him closer today and his kick would win......late running 3rd, missing by less than a length.  Time for the fifth race, a bottom level claimer - read my analysis below:

 

My process for handicapping at Del Mar, and to use the Del Mar Handicapper guide has been this from the beginning......I scroll through the trainer names without paying any attention at all to the horses past performances. If I see a trainer name that is on the Del Mar Handicapper 40% Club list I check to see if it is a match. It not I move down the line of trainers and if none match, then I handicap the race like any other. If it is a match I look at the horse and consider is there any reason to NOT go with the percentages listed in the guide. That is few and far between, and honestly I am reluctant to do that (for example I did do that on the Saturday opener and missed an $18 winner!). So the fifth today is a bottom, and I do mean BOTTOM level claiming sprint. The #2 Evening Twilight jumps right off the page - Sean McCarthy is the trainer. I look at his profile that I wrote up based on Jim Mazur's stats and I see that (a) he's a 40% Club member when he sends out a horse owned by the Harris Farms. Then I note that for all other trainers I had written he's a terrible 1-for-28. This could be the spot! I also notice he's near 25% with runners making their first start of the season at Del Mar, which Evening Twilight is. And then I see what turns out to be the angle that sealed the deal........ in his last race Evening Twilight was dead last, as he was in the race before. But three back in his only win......he went wire-to-wire --> HERE at Del Mar AND at today's 5 1/2 furlong distance. That was good enough for me, I doubled the bet.  So, I am watching the replays and I've lost the first two. I flipped to the video replay of the fifth and as it's loading I open the program for the fifth which shows the morning line and final odds. If a camera were on me I'm sure you'd have seen my eyes pop big as silver dollars......Evening Twilight went off at 42-1! Quickly I calculate what $10 to win would mean! OH MY! I am certain my heart rate accelerated. Trevor Denman calls out as the gate opens, Evening Twilight moves through to take the lead! Are you serious?  Now, having seen a race or two I can tell you that if you have the front-runner there are three key stages to the race............. 

 

First, and most obviously, a front-runner needs to go to the lead without any problem. A bad break, another front-runner, anything that compromises starting in front is a near certain sign of failure......so, "CHECK" I've cleared the first hurdle. The second key comes when they reach the turn. Normally all riders and horses are comfortable with their spots to the turn, and then everyone begins to make their move to be in position to win the race. If the stalkers and pressers close to your front-runner gain ground through the turn and turn for home with momentum you have problems. As the field moves through the turn here, I'm clear and no one is gaining - "CHECK" to the second criteria and now my heart is just pounding! The final hurdle to being able to wire a field - and especially if you have an upset in the making is that when they turn for home your front-runner has to have a burst to separate himself from the field.....then it's a question of having enough gas to hold on. As heads turned for home the field looked to be gaining but then there it was...."the burst" and suddenly Evening Twilight was clear by over two lengths. Now I can literally feel my heart coming out of my chest.....OH MY GOSH, I'm about to win with a 42-1 horse and I've got $10 to win on him! As they cross the wire the late runners are gaining but it's far too late. I quickly flip to the results screen to see the payoff......$87.60 for a $2 bet! Quick, the calculator...... that means I am about to cash for $438.00! Then I have a really bad thought - I did double-check the tickets right.....I do have the right race, number and amount. I pull the tickets out and YES .... I do. I AM RICH! Still stunned I walked into the living room and told Kim she had to come watch. She didn't notice the odds at first and said "that's nice" that I'd won. "Did you notice the odds?" I ask - "No." "Forty-two to one" I say....still, she's not grasping what it means. She looks at the payoff and thinks the "8" is a dollar sign, she see's "$7.60" - then she does a double take and I say it out loud, "Yes - EIGHTY-SEVEN-Sixty. I am going to cash for well over $400!" Big smile, big kiss, "Congratulations!" she says.

 

August 13: First Day of School....NOT for me!

A year ago today, to celebrate the beginning of my retirement and the fact I did NOT have to work, I was at Saratoga race track. So today, to celebrate the start of my second year of retirement.....since today was the first day of school for teachers......I planned to come out and bet the races from Saratoga because I could! It turned into a WONDERFUL celebration as not only was I out here to bet / play the races, but I was here to cash in over $500 in winning tickets! WHOOO HOOOOOO! 

 

My original plan was to stay for most of the day and play the races, but I was up late last night working on this journal and the pictures. Then this morning I was up early working on putting together not only the highlight video for yesterday, but also a "feature short" on just the BIG WIN from yesterday. By the time I was done with all of my web design and film design it was about 12:15 and time to head to the track. I arrived with fifteen minutes to post so I made my first bet and then i went to find one of the tellers who "knew" me because I wanted someone to know that I had had a really big day. The teller I went to reminds me of my grandmother and I've bet with her often - including some yesterday. She was very happy for all my money collection......in fact she didn't have enough money in her drawer to pay me :)  Then the racing began. I had Dave Liftin's "BEST" of the day in the opener, so I doubled the bet. Dueled with a longshot while going off as the 4/5 favorite - did in by the pace duel, weakened to be 4th. I was 8/1 in the second race and tracked the leaders. I thought I had a real chance to upset the field, but when they straightened for home and the rider asked, he had nothing. In the third I was on the 6/5 favorite who figured to win.As I waited for the race to start I could tell that I was "bored" so to speak - just one track to play, after a long day.....that's a lot of sitting. So I decided to cash - I hoped - after this race, make my last three bets and then head back home and watch on via twinspires.com. Saxophone Len was easily best in the third and I waited for the payoff to come up - $4.50. With my $5 bet I was due $11.25. I had forgotten to bring quarters so the teller - who I rarely bet with - only had dimes and I was shortchanged the nickle.....wonder what she'd say if I made my next $5 bet with only $4.95? Sigh.......Watched replays of three of the races - late running and wide 3rd in a turf sprint; pressed the pace, but no late punch, 3rd again. Then came my second winner on the day. Probably should have upped the wager.....it was a maiden 2-year-old sprint, on the turf. Now, honestly, who do YOU think I bet? RIGHT.....Todd Pletcher first-timer. Somehow the crowd let Coconut Shrimp go off at almost 5/2 - walked with it, paid $6.60, so I will cash next time for $33.00. In the feature I had a Todd Pletcher returnee, but he had nothing throughout, 5th while struggling all the way. NOTE: in the photos below I didn't add the ticket because of the big score or big payoff, but just to emphasize that today, when I "should" have been at school, I was at the races betting and winning :)

 

August 15 - 16: A S-L-O-W start to the week

After the fabulous end to the week last week I thought I might just be on a roll. But no, back to reality as on Wednesday I went 0-for-5 at Del Mar. I was close with the first two, but then didn't even hit the board with the last three. I decided to spend this Thursday at the races, like last week, but to play virtually online - have to be honest, part of it was to spend the day with the puppy who's in his third week of his month-long visit :)  My very first selection was the "BEST" of the Day at Calder when Beloveda was running in yet another starter allowance. She floated up to 2/5 at one point, but at post time she was back to 1/9. And as they moved through the far turn she was dead last and it looked like leading rider Luis Saez was really working hard on her to get her to even stay in contact with the field. But once they turned for home her class came through and she blew by the field to win motored down by open lengths. Off to a great start! Well, that turned out to be one of the few highlights of the day. Granted I took some chances on some price horses, but I just had a hard time cashing tickets all day long. After the opening score I missed on five straight - one a triple bet at Calder where Moreapplauseplease went off at a juicy 7/2 with top rider Saez up - the only other time he'd ridden her she had a career best effort. Not today, 8th....wow. I got a winner at Calder that was a good $6.60 pay out and after missing two more I scored back-to-back and I thought to myself that the wins were about to begin!  But I was a well beaten fifth at Saratoga, then my double investment in the opener at Del Mar ran flat to be 5th of five runners and at Saratoga my double investment had nothing in the turf stretch, 7th. Sigh... I was second best at Del Mar and then it really hurt when Cat Lore was a double investment at Arlington in a five furlong off-the-the-turf dash....she came flying up the rail and it was a head bobbing finish. I swear in two different slo-mo views she'd won. Missed with my Spa best and that was that.

 

August 17 - Pletcher strikes again at the Spa!
.......A BIG Day Of Racing At Arlington Tomorrow

One of the things I am most proud of myself with my racing/handicapping is that I have played the races long enough, and know my ability that even after two long days like I've had to start the week, I don't change my handicapping or investing. So today as I started handicapping for the big Saturday of racing I checked out Saratoga's entries. In the opener was a Pletcher 2yo first-timer and I just got the impression he was MUCH the best so I tripled the bet. Walked with it at 9/5, so I collected $42 and was assured of a winning day at Saratoga.......lost the next two when fourth in two overnight stakes. I am hoping the Pletcher juvenile win kicks off a winning evening tonight when I watch the Del Mar replays - though they won't be up until nearly 11 pm (due to the twilight start out west!) But regardless - I am really anxious to go tomorrow for Arlington Million Day and many other big races across the country. And my "BET OF THE DAY" tomorrow is a Del Mar play where Lady of Shamrock runs in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks!

 

August 18 - "Sweep The Million"......again! (well, sort of!)

 

 

Before we go through all the tales of the day, let me start by saying I was really proud of myself for pushing through the day today and hanging in there to end up ahead. I'd not had the best of weeks with the picks so far; I hadn't felt 100% this week for some reason; I got to the races and found nearly all my Monmouth picks were scratches; and then I spent nearly the first four hours with a single winning ticket! Still - and even with losing three big ticket investments on big stakes races - I came out with 30% wins on the day and a flat bet profit. A well-deserved pat on the back for Mr. Mark today!  So, let's get started....... As I said, with Monmouth off the turf I lost several selections. So, having originally planned to handicap Woodbine, but then passing on their card as I already had enough for the day, I went back to them and used Jim Bannon's sheet as a guide to look through the form. I came up with seven races to play from their ten race card, so I felt good about "filling in the gaps" on my selection sheet. But I wondered how it was all going to work out when I ran second to start the day, at Woodbine, and then proceeded to lose my first seven picks over the first two hours plus! Included in there were two other second place finishes. But, I got a nice confidence booster when my first "BEST" of the day scored at Saratoga...... In the fourth I loved the Pletcher debut runner, Violence. I bet his first-timers as a rule anyway, but Violence had some spectacular morning drills and just looked dynamite on paper. So I made him a "Prime Time" investment. He stalked the leader to the top of the stretch, but when I thought he'd blow by, it was a stretch duel....just up in a photo! WHEW!   So, I thought, here I go now.......but instead I missed on five more and it was closing in on four o'clock (I got there at about 12:30) and I STILL had only one winning ticket to show for all my handicapping. I had several "chats" with myself about hanging in there, it would all even out....if not today, then over the next few weeks. And then I got going. At Calder Daddys Jewel was MUCH the best, and I'd doubled the bet. Even though he was the favorite I still felt better getting a winning ticket again. Minutes later I won at Woodbine with a 5/2 horse. OK! I was a third and an oh-so-close second - flying at the finish at Saratoga. I got my first Arlington stakes win and then went on a three stakes race win streak.  I had missed on my first four Arlington plays on their Arlington Million Day card, but like last year, I was patient as the bigger bets were in the stakes races. And last year I swept the big three stakes races. Well, this year they added a new stakes race to make a total of four. The new race was the first, the $400,000 American St. Leger Stakes at the marathon distance of 13 1/2 furlongs. As with all turf stakes races, I always look to any European invaders. And I thought Jakkalberry looked MUCH the best. The big question for every one of the runners in here was getting the distance, but if you looked at the company Jakkalberry had been facing and his Timeform figures, he just looked to be the clear best horse. Add in the fact he was already a millionaire in earnings and it all added up to me making him the "BEST" on the Arlington card.  As they broke from the gate one of my "Watch List" horses, Ioyabigtime went straight to the front. I'd let him get away last time - as I'd won with him on Arlington Million Day last year on the undercard and at Keeneland in October, but those had been in allowance company, so I figured he did not fit with graded stakes runners.....anyway, he'd won the prep for this, the Grade 3 Stars and Stripes, on the front end at better than 40/1! So as he set a moderate pace I have to admit I had some misgivings about letting him go. But I could tell Jakkalberry was biding his time. When they hit the far turn the Euro swung into action and began to close ground. As heads turned for home he had all the momentum. Ioyabigtime was stubborn, but inside the 1/8th pole I took control and began to edge clear!  With my $20 investment as the "Best" on the AP card I collected over $50! Now we are talking! Let's start piling up the winners!

 

I missed at Saratoga and then boom, BOOM, POW! At Calder there were two 7 1/2 furlong stakes races - the first for the colts was the Naked Greed and I put the minimum on him.....virtually wire to wire at almost 5/2. SCORE! Minutes later it was time for the 8th at Woodbine, the Victorianna Stakes. The consensus selection was Moonlit Beauty. She set out on an easy lead and seemed long gone at the 1/8th pole. In fact the track announcer remarked how she was under a hand ride.....but suddenly a deep closer was flying, and inside the 16th pole Moonlit's jockey started getting busy. She responded but ooooohhhhh so close on the wire! Watch the video - whew! But a win, and with triple the bet! And as a side note, after losing the first two picks at Woodbine (remember they were late additions to my selection sheet), I had now scored my second win in a row there! They had no sooner crossed the finish line in Toronto than I shifted TV's to see them load in the gate in Chicago for the Grade 1 Secretariat.   Last year, when I was at the Arlington Million I was fortunate enough to sweep the big three stakes, and you could have argued that it was no great feat as the three winners were the favorites. I would argued that I picked them because they were the winners, and I can't help how the crowd bets them. So this year when I analyzed the races (you can read my pre-race analysis by clicking the buttons at the head of this journal entry) I didn't like any of the favorites once you got past the St. Leger. here I was all against the favorite, Silver Max, who I'd had several times. But, he's a front-running fool and not only did I think he'd have company, but I also thought the distance would do him in here. And as in any graded turf event, it's any European shipper that deserves a long look.......

 

The way I saw the race was Silver Max in front, then he would be pushed by Daddy Long Legs - who is a quality runner, he'd won the Group 3 Dubai Derby - and though he didn't have a chance to win, he was going to run his race, on the lead, and force Silver Max's hand. I thought Silver Max would put him away on the turn, and then Summer Front - who I have also had on multiple occasions, and is 5-for-5 on the turf - would swoop by the lead into the stretch. But all his races have been at a mile. So I thought he'd hit a wall at the furlong marker and then a late runner, most likely a European import would come flying by. Well, Bayrir was just the horse for this scenario. He'd already won at this 1 1/4 mile distance; he'd won 3 of 4 races in his career, the last a Group 3 at this distance and earned a triple figure that would give him the equivalent of a Beyer 100 - open lengths better than any of these. And he was 6/1 on the program. Well, he wasn't 6/1, but he was more than 3/1 and the race was E-X-A-C-T-L-Y the way I envisioned it! He walked with it, paid $8.40 and I collected over $40! WHOOO HOOOO!

 

The three big stakes win high was dampened by three big disappointments - Turbo Compressor in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer led to the top of the stretch and stopped like he was shot. I was really surprised because jockey Joe Bravo had elected to ride this front runner instead of Little Mike in the Arlington Million and I thought that spoke volumes about Turbo Compressor's chances. The winner is an improving runner who has now won two Grade 1's in a row and has to be considered a big threat for the Breeders' Cup Turf - Point of Entry. Freedom Reigns lost by the shortest of noses in the Hatoof Stakes at Arlington, and then two big disappointments when Frolic's Revenge and Grace Hall disappointed in the featured Crystal Rail at Calder and Grade 1 Alabama at Saratoga. But the winners' circle wasn't far away...... In the Grade 1 Beverly D I again went against the chalk and the American fillies and mares. I thought that 8/1 I'm A Dreamer was a legitimate upset candidate. As they turned for home ANOTHER of my favorite runners, Romacaca who I thought was over her head (but I thought she was in the prep for this and she won) was leading at the top of the lane, but then I'm A Dreamer swooped on by and won over my second choice (who'd lost for me on Derby Day on the turf). The best part......I'm A Dreamer went off at 6/1 and paid a nice $14.60. I'd doubled down on her and collected nearly $75......and I've swept the three stakes races at Arlington again! Except now the Arlington Million was still to be run!

 

With the win in the Beverly D I had rallied to cash on eight tickets for the day. Shortly after that I had three races in succession. At Calder I had a triple investment on the favorite who was facing off against a field of losers and Jessany was lightly raced. He was 7/5, but could not keep up with a horse that was a miserable 1-for-38! Wow. But in the next two I won, and both looked remarkably the same..... In the 11th at Saratoga it was on the turf. As they hit the far turn my pick, Ladywell Court was dead last. But as they straightened away she was exploding through the lane. At the 16th pole she was still at least six lengths behind, but she inhaled the field and won going away! She went off at 2/1 and paid $6.50. Minutes later a near identical scenario involved Silver Max at Woodbine. He was the even money favorite and dead last midway through the turn. But, like Ladywell Court he was just flying through the stretch and he too won going away. I had doubled the investment on him so I netted over $20 when I cashed on him.   I had one more race to watch before filming my video recap and heading home to watch the late Del Mar races. It was the signature event at Arlington, the Arlington Million. Earlier in the week I'd told Kim that two of my favorite horses were running on the Million card, and both were front-runners and I didn't think either would win, but I might bet them anyway. Silver Max was the first, and I'd gone against him and won. In the million it was Little Mike. I was really considering him as an upset candidate, but what turned me against him was when jockey Joe Bravo, who'd been on him in all his races, opted to ride Turbo Compressor in the Grade 1 Sword Dancer - and Bravo had only been on him twice! I took this as confirmation that Little Mike just wasn't going to get the distance. But when I watched the DRF preview video Dan Illman remarked that Ramon Dominguez was a great front-end rider. I was intrigued however with Mike Beer's pick in the video that Wigmore Hall had run well in three North American starts, and coming back to the US from Europe, where his races had been mediocre at best, he was seeminly thriving, and perhaps it was the use of the anti-diuretic drug Lasix. Then I saw a video with Jill Byrne at Arlington and she too remarked about how well Wigmore Hall was looking. And he was 18/1!  My initial analysis had been to go with the favorite Boisterous; but I'd not been thrilled that his trainer Shug McGaughey had stayed in Saratoga to watch Point of Entry run rather than be at the prestigious Arlington Million with Boisterous. So I went with Wigmore Hall. Sigh.....want to guess? Yeah, Little Mike AGAIN wired the field without me. At least he wasn't 20/1 like he was in Louisville as he "only" paid $9.80. So as I filmed my recap I had four late Del Mar picks. I'd won 10-of-33 and had rallied from the early 0-for-7 start and the three big stakes losses to come within less than $20 of breaking even. It would come down to the BET of the DAY - in the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks I thought that Lady of Shamrock looked tons the best, and in fact I think she's the best filly or mare on the turf in the US, regardless of age. My only concern was how she'd either have to risk traffic with her late run or go very wide. And the Del Mar turf stretch is not a long stretch.....could she get there in time. I thought if she gave an "A" list performance it was no problem, but you never know.  So, when I got home I watched the race replays from earlier and put together my race clips for the recap video and then watched the first two Del Mar races.....third in both of them at 8/1 and 7/5. Now it was time for the Oaks, and I was watching live! As they went into the gate she was even money.....with my $50 win bet on her I would be guaranteed a winning day if she won, regardless of how the last race turned out. And I did some quick math....a win by Lady of Shamrock and a loss in the last race would put me at 11-for-37 on the day, a 29.7% win average --> round it up to 30%! So, it all seemed to be "in the cards" - now she just had to deliver. As they moved down the backstretch Lady of Shamrock was in the back, and I was ok with that but it looked like jockey Mike Smith was having to work her a little to stay interested....I didn't like that. As they moved to the far turn the field was pretty strung out and I thought this would make her move around the outside not nearly as bad. And then she kicked into gear, picking off horses one by one! But as they made the turn into the stretch there were five of them lining up and Lady of Shamrock was floated EIGHT wide! But she clearly had the momentum....was there enough ground to get to the wire in time? She hit yet another gear and just gunned past them - much like my new Nissan 370-Z when I hit the accelerator! Up in time without being asked for her very best! WHOOO HOOOO! She paid an even $4 and I was going to collect a crisp $100 bill when I head back to Calder! In the finale was flying at 9/1, but was too late - 3rd. So, as I as I said at the top of the entry, I was really proud that I didn't give up, start tossing money on long shots, or head for home. I'd stuck with it and was rewarded. I always WANT to win big money, but for me if I am close to even and hit my "best" bets, I'm satisfied. And today I'd hit with five of the eight "BEST" bets that I'd posted on Facebook, including the "BET of the DAY," and I'd nailed three of the four Arlington Million stakes races. All in all a very good day!

 

Sunday August 19

I would have looked at the Saratoga entries anyway, but my buddy Keith texted me to ask if I had any good selections for today. So, I opened the entries and found three races I liked, two at Saratoga. In the opener yet another Pletcher debut two-year-old, in fact he had an entry. The 1a, Kimono was Dave Liftin's BEST of the day. I doubled the bet and the entry ran 1-2, with Kimono clearly best. The only bad thing was they were no secreat on the board, leaving the gate at 1/5. Next up, at Calder the top rider was on what looked to be a hot debut runner - second best. Then the feature at Saratoga was the Grade 2 Lake Placid. I really liked Stephanie's Kitten in this spot. She'd won several times for me this season. She was ridden again by top jockey Johnny Velasquez and he gave her the same ride he'd scored with on Union Rags in the Belmont and Wise Dan in the Fourstardave.....saved ground all the way on the rail, and like both of those he looked to be in a trapped spot with no where to go. But with less than a furlong to go a seam opened up and he moved her out. And BOOM! She exploded in a really exciting move she just blew by the field to win by daylight under wraps. NICELY DONE Johnny V! I  finished off the day with yet another one-win-day at Del Mar....it was a l-o-n-g week at the seaside oval for me --> two winless days to start the week and three single victory days to finish off the week. The only positive to take from that was that the Saturday single winner was my BEST BET of the Day and it covered all the bets for Saturday and most of the loss on Friday, and today nearly covered the bets as well. Only two weeks left in the summer season and at Del Mar (and Saratoga for that matter). Hoping to finish off the season strongly!

 

Monday August 20 ........ First Day of School 2012

 

Just like last Monday, when teachers had to report to school and I went to the track because I could, today was the first day of school......unlike last week where it was laid back for staff and there were no students, today was a REAL day of work - but NOT for me! So I truly enjoyed the opportunity to go out to the races. I had two things in mind - first I wanted to cash my ticket on Lady of Shamrock and collect the $100 payoff, and second I wanted to play the races at Saratoga. BUT.....I had told myself when I got the past performances for Saratoga that I did not want to play just because I could. I wanted to pick races to play that I only thought I had a real chance at. After looking through the card I only came up with two plays. The first was in the featured race, the Union Avenue Stakes. Risky Rachel figured to vie for favoritism and she'd stopped in her last two. But today she just looked MUCH the best and today's six furlong distance was clearly her best. When the gates opened she tracked Final Mesa (who was my bet of the day on Opening Day at Gulfstream in January 2010 and has not won since!) and when they hit the turn Rachel hit the gas and was L-O-N-G gone in 1:09 and change. Impressive performance! I included the ticket with the picture to emphasize, like last week, that I WAS on track and NOT at work :) The second and final play of the day was in the finale ..... it was a marathon turf event going 9 1/2 furlongs and I liked Grand Rapport. But what really sold me on her was that she was Dave Liftin's "best" of the day. In his analysis he pointed out the fact that she'd run her two best races with Ramon Dominguez up, and he was riding today. She tracked the fast pace to the far turn and then Dominguez let her go. In the blink of an eyelash she went from about six off the lead to in front by open lenghts. She ran away from her rivals and won by daylight motored down! And best of all, she was NOT the favorite (still only paid $5.40). I'd doubled the investment on both selections so I more than doubled my money for today! WHOOOO HOOOOOO! That's how you spend a day of work :)

 

Wednesday August 22

This morning was one of the most anticipated races in International Racing.....the unbeaten superhorse, Frankel, a perfect 12-for-12, was trying something he'd never done before. In all of his races prior to this one he'd run no further than one mile. In fact, nearly everyone of his races had been at exactly one mile, including all three of his scintilating Group 1 wins this season. But today he was going to go a mile and a quarter - the classic distance. And today he had NOT scared off the opposition. When I had first heard, after his last victory, that he would stretch out the next time (today) I wondered if he would be vulnerable. But in everything I'd read leading up to today's race there wasn't any concern about his ability to stay the distance from his connections. But still, before I would invest in him I wanted to get as much information as possible. So, this morning I found a pre-race video analysis. I anticipated they would say he would win, but there were ways to go against him; or that he was vulnerable......but I was hoping for a "leaning" in his favor from people who were professional handicappers and not Frankel's connections. But in the video all three of these British handicappers thought it would be Frankel in the easiest of romps..... So, I invested in him a full US Grant......... At a little after 10:30 am this morning me and the puppy sat down to watch the race. At first (as you can see in the video) I was a tad concerned as Frankel was slow out of the gate and then sat much further back in the field. But he simply cruised to the leaders at the 3 furlong marker and with 1/4 mile to go..............then jockey Tom Queally said "GO!" and it was all over. Truly one of the all-time greats if not THE all-time greatest! Frankel had gone off at 1/9, and I thought if ever there was a chance to get a price on him it would be today......but everyone knew. His international rating was in the mid-140's and every over runner's very best was a low 120s number. And that's the way it played out. He is just one fabulous race horse!

 

 

Thursday August 23

Today when I looked at the entries for the Thursday card at Saratoga I was disappointed that there were no first-time 2-year-olds with Todd Pletcher training. But in the second race there was a horse that was almost as much a mortal lock as Frankel had been yesterday. The race was a seven furlong starter allowance for horses that had started for a claiming tag of $25K or less in 2011-2012. And there in the outside post was Saginaw. Now, if you've been reading my journals you might remember that name..... he had won for me in May as my "BEST" bet in the Affirmed Stakes, going 7 furlongs at Belmont. Off that impressive effort he'd tried the Grade 1 Met MIle - way over his head. Then he came back on my birthday, August 1st to run here at Saratoga in the John Morrissey Stakes at 6 1/2 furlongs, and won again....his 6th win in his last seven tries - three of them in stakes company! So here he is today dropping into a starter allowance which he qualified for because he HAD run in claiming event before going on a tear. But now, as a multiple stakes winner, he just laid over this field. I made him a double investment horse. But with about half an hour to post time I started watching the TVG broadcast and the Internet broadcast from Saratoga and both sets of analysts remarked that he'd have been 4/5 at post time with the #2 in the field, and would have probably won......but with that one scratching, it was no wonder he was 1-9! And that he was a virtual "free square" on the Pick 4 card! I looked at the other runners again and made the decision to change the initial $10 investment to a $30 "BET of the DAY" investment. He sat off the front-runner, moved easily to the lead at the head of the stretch. But from the stretch to the final 50 yards it was clear that his jockey was working VERY hard to get him home. Still, he won by daylight and I'd won my SIXTH straight race at Saratoga dating back to Sunday! Yay ME!

 

Friday August 24

 

This week, following the Arlington Million, I decided to utilize the social media of Facebook to contribute to the weekly conversation with Arlington analysts Joe Kristufek and Brian Spencer. You can see my question / comment at right and Brian's answer. Pretty cool, eh? As I write this Friday afternoon there are two streaks going on simultaneously that have been a major focus of my late summer racing adventures..... let's start with the bad news - at Del Mar.  Since August 9 when I scored in two of my four selections I have gone on a just miserable 5-for-53 streak. That is just barely above 10% - Yikes! But here is the truly odd part of that statistic. Over the course of those fifty-three races I've invested $500 even into the seaside pari-mutual pool. You'd think I must be losing money hand over fist, right? I've collected an astounding $611.50, thanks in VERY large part to my double investment in Evening Twilight who paid $87.60 with his upset on August 12th. So in spite of a miserable run of also rans, I'm STILL up over $100. I'll be "satisfied" with that, but I sure want to be winning much more often than that.  To offset that streak I have been on a real tear at Saratoga. Since last Saturday's finale I'd cashed on SIX consecutive Saratoga selections in a row! I've invested $75 and collected $129.25! I haven't really been overly protective of that streak - I've simply picked races at Saratoga that I thought I had a really good chance to win with. And so it was this afternoon...... The feature race today was the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes, at 7 furlongs at the Spa. The two stars of the race were It's Tricky and Turbulent Descent. Turbulent Descent is one of my very favorite filly/mare sprinters and I thought she was a lock to win the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint last year. She swopped to the lead just as she blew by me as I watched from the rail, but then hung to be third. She lost two races after that, but got back in the winner's circle in her last, an overnight stakes. She'd spent her entire career under the care of trainer Mike Puype. But after that last win she was privately purchased by Michael Repole and she'd been moved to the Todd Pletcher barn. Pletcher is easily the best trainer in the country and he is simply deadly with horses, especially quality runners, making their first start for him. I mean, look at it logically. You've got a client who spends hundreds of thousands of dollars on a thoroughbred, maybe millions, and you now are running her. Wouldn't you have them fully cranked for a peak performance first out? Duh..... Well I was hoping that It's Tricky would run today and NOT scratch for the Grade 1 Personal Ensign at nine furlongs on Sunday. I would be all over Turbulent Descent and if It's Tricky stayed in the race my price would be higher. Well, she scratched and when the wagering opened she was bet down to 2/5. She hovered there and would bounce up slightly to 1/2 throughout the betting. She ran a sweet race, sitting just off the pace, moving easily to the lead and drawing off late. She became one of the few runners in history to earn a Grade 1 at ages 2, 3, and now 4. And she bacame just the 8th filly to win the Grade 1 Test as a sophomore and come back to win the Grade 1 Ballerina at 4-years-old.

 

Saturday August 25: Travers Stakes / Juvenile Showcase Day

For a day when I lost money, and not just a couple of dollars, I had a pretty upbeat take on the day. I think that is because I scored with a "BEST" at Saratoga; because I made a good "late charge" after getting off to a miserable start; because at Del Mar I FINALLY cashed a ticket....and not one, but three in a row for a profit at the San Diego track; and finally I think I walked away from the computer with a positive spin because of the 31 races I'd invested I had hit the board in 21 of them. On to the recap.........

 

 

It was Travers Day and the races started early at the Spa. In the second I had a Todd Pletcher 2yo in a maiden special spot; went off as the 6/5 favorite but broke behind the field, then came with a good run, but was weaving all over the track and finished second in spite of it all. Delhomme will be a winner in his next start. I was second in the 3rd race at Saratoga on the turf...sigh....... In the opener at Monmouth I thought I had the lone speed in Ecstatic Cat. I was surprised that (a) he didn't make the lead and (b) that the rider seemed content to not even try to get the front.....3rd at 4/1. I won my first of the day when Cinematize went off at 3/5 in a maiden special over the turf at Saratoga and I thought I was on my way. But instead I was destined to miss on my next SEVEN picks......it was a long afternoon. None of the losses, early in the day were any harder to take than at Monmouth where I surged to the front on the turf, and then a longshot at 24/1 cut off another runner, bumped me and went on to win by less than a length. A LONG objection process led to watching the race over and over and I thought that the objection was legitimate.....but no, my number was NOT put up. 4th - 4th - 2nd - 7th - 3rd - 4th all followed. At Calder it was "Juvenile Showcase Day" - where all the races were for two-year-olds and included six added money events. The first of which was the Seacliff Stakes where I really liked Sr. Quisqueyano. His odds kept dropping and dropping until by post time he was a measely 3/5 - but boy he ran like it. He'd won his first two races by double digit lengths and today, in spite of stretching out (a 33% winning angle for the barn) he did so again. I came right back with a "BEST" bet at Saratoga in the first of an all-stakes Pick 4 sequence. It was the Grade 2 Ballston Spa going 8 1/2 furlongs on the turf. I'd watched the DRF video analysis and the guys were all against, with enthusiasm, my pick - my "BEST" pick of Zagora. But to me, Zagora was a Grade 1 winner over this turf course and was facing a field of even questionable talent for a Grade 3, much less a Grade 2. Added to that was that there figured to be a strong early pace and I thought you had the ideal mix for a Zagora win. And she just romped home. I had hoped for maybe 2/1 because of all the "chatter" about a couple of the other contenders, but she paid 3/2 and I collected $50. After a Todd Pletcher returnee disappointed at Monmouth I came right back to score in the Grade 1 Test Stakes at Saratoga. The Test was a seven furlong sprint for 3-year-old fillies. The clear speed of the race was Contested. And what I liked about her was that she had shown the ability to sit just off the lead, so if someone wanted to go nuts on the front end I'd be OK. But there were enough questions for me that I didn't go above the minimum. And, I figured that she was going to be a short priced favorite, so I wasn't willing to risk a lot on a horse that I simply "liked" to get back a small amount of money. As the gates sprung open Contested stood in the stall and was dead last! My first thought was how glad I was that I had not invested deeply in the race. But in an amazing run she began making up ground, collared the front-runner at the furlong pole and drew off to score. VERY impressive! And now I was sorry I had not invested more money in her :)

 

I was second on the turf with what I thought was clearly the best runner at Arlington - too little, too late to a lone front runner. But in the next pick I HAD the lone speed in Bianco Tartofo in the Omnibus Stakes at Monmouth. He had a horse on his hip, but the pace was moderate and I thought I was long gone. But no.....run down by a longshot - figures.....I have the favorite closing, and can't get there; I have a favorite on the front end, can't hold on.....wow.   Next up was the Grade 1 King's Bishop at Saratoga. My co-"BEST" of the day there (with Zagora) was Currency Swap. He loved the 7 furlong distance and was unbeaten at Saratoga. AND he figured to sit just off a contested lead. As they were loading into the gate - and I was watching on TVG - one of the analysts said his pick was the #1 horse who was a longshot, and get this - he had won a stakes race just three days ago HERE at Saratoga, AND that was at nine furlongs! The race unfolded as I thought; Currency Swap began to make his move, but then I could tell he wasn't "gliding" to the front, he was having to work hard, and then he hit a wall. It was a thrilling finish and who came from out of the clouds to win? The #1 flying at double-digit odds!   But right away it was time for my "BEST" at Calder. It was the colt's division of the Florida Stallion Stakes, the Affirmed Division. Unbeaten Two T's At Two B just looked TONS the best with these. I even wrote that if he didn't win it woulld be a huge upset. He went off at 2/5 and though he was pressing a pretty quick pace he looked to be going easily. He glided to the lead and turned for home, opened up by daylight at the 1/8th pole and then - you could tell he'd hit the wall. As they had broken out of the gate I curiously looked at the program to see if top rider Luis Saez was in the race, because he wasn't on my horse, and I could see if there was an upset it would be with this guy on board. He was on the #2 horse at 21/1. Yes......nailed in the final fifty yards by the #2 horse, with the leading rider at more than a $40 payoff. Ironically I had NOT bet Two T's At Two B in his last because I thought he was overrated!

 

If you've read my journals you know I've been battling through an extended losing streat at my "Handicapping Project" track, Del Mar. So today as the day was wearing on and I was not winning at the other tracks the thought went through my head that how bad of a day would I have with another winless day at Del Mar. But I also "replied" to myself that the thing that I was most happy with myself over this summer had been how I have faith in my handicapping and I keep firing in spite of hitting streaks like this. Well, after losing back-to-back "BEST" bets my next play was a double investment at Del Mar. And...... WONDERS OF WONDERS - I WON! Street Rocket came from off the pace and blew by to score.....WHOOOO HOOOOOO!

 

Next was the featured Travers and it was a mediocre batch of three-year-old survivors from the first half of the year. i went with a California invader who ran fifth, but it was a thrilling finish - the first dead heat since the 1870s! I scored in the filly division of the Florida Stallion Stakes, the Susan's Girl - also at 7 furlongs. Should have put the money on this one as she was guaranteed to be a price. My pick was Putyourdreamsaway who'd been 4/1 on the morning line, but floated up to 9/2! She walked with it! Paid a really nice $11, but I only had the minimum on her.  In a most amazing turn of events I came back to score my second win in a row at Del Mar when Perfecta was clearly best on the turf. After missing with four in a row I had my third play at Del Mar. The 5th race was going a mile on the turf in a claiming event. But what had piqued my interest was that my selection, #2 Candy Trophy, was trained by top trainer John Sadler. And here was the key - over the last three years, Sadler had won with an amazing 63% of his runners that are owned by the Craig Family. Candy Trophy was lightly raced, so she was eligible to show some improvement today, and she was second off the claim for Sadler. Finally, she was dropping in for a tag for the first time in her career. All those latter facts would have made her the play without the statistics, but with the Del Mar Handicapper pointing out that 63% win angle I doubled the bet. She came flying up the rail to score in a VERY close photo....paid $12 and I got back $60! Lost the last three at Del Mar with a cose second and two photo finishes..... but it was a "feel good" day, and tomorrow is Pacific Classic Day at Del Mar!

 

Sunday August 26: Pacific Classic Day

It's the great thing about my racing adventures......the zig and zag of the way the races go. For the past 17 days I've been reeling from my winless streak at Del Mar, but being "covered" by my plays at other tracks, specifically at Saratoga where going into Saturday I'd hit seven in a row. Well, going back to August 9 and up through the first of the two Del Mar winners on Saturday I'd cashed fifty tickets - 47 at other tracks! So this weekend I finally get rolling at Del Mar and what happens, I'm missing at the other tracks! I won at Del Mar on Saturday, but lost for the day due to the rest of the picks. Then today, I had two picks at Saratoga, including the "BEST" of the day, and ten picks at Del Mar....I win at Del Mar, but lose for the day overall because of missing on both Saratoga plays.  In the first bet at Saratoga it was a Pletcher first-timer. I knew something was up when he went off at 5/1 - this in spite of EVERYONE knowing about Pletcher's phenomenal Spa record with juveniles this summer AND that Dave Liftin had picked this horse on top. He was a late running third. Then, the feature today was the Grade 1 Personal Ensign. The star attraction was Royal Delta, who was coming off the most impressive win of the year in the Grade 2 Fleur de Lis at Churchill and then a gutsy win at Delaware in the Grade 2 Delaware 'Cap. I wondered how much that race took out of her, but when I watched the DRF handicappers they talked about her being probably THE best horse - regardless of gender - in the country. Just no playing against her. I did think it was interesting that It's Tricky scratched out of a stakes race on Friday to run here. But I really wasn't worried about her that much. When I began watching the telecast the announcers on track were talking about how hot she looked, and that it was NOT a hot day. But I thought, even not at her best, she's still lengths better than the five rivals she has today. The gates opened and It's Tricky went to her nose - so much for her as a threat! Royal Delta was just cruising in third behind the two longshot leaders and then cruised up towards the lead as they spun out of the far turn.....

 

.......but as she came out of the turn she was about six or seven wide and the margin she was behind went from a length and a half to over four lengths. She seemed to take about fifty yards to re-start her engine and by then one of the longshots - ironically a Todd Pletcher/John Velasquez runner at an amazing 10/1 - had spurted free. Royal Delta came flying late with more class than actual speed, but she was narrowly beaten, second......sigh....... So, it would be up to my Del Mar selections to carry the day. And in spite of winning two races yesterday, I still had to wonder about the possibility of being able to cover Saratoga - which had been covering for Del Mar! But, I believed that perhaps the pendulum was swinging back my way and the momentum from yesterday might, just might carry through today. And in many ways, I was right!  Today was "TVG Pacific Classic Day" with the feature race being the $1,000,000 Pacific Classic - the only $1 million race in California. And there were two supporting graded stakes on the under card. I started the day with not one, not two, not three, but FOUR photo finish losses in the first five races! And in the second race, which I passed, I nailed the winner at 5/1, and didn't bet. NOT the start I was hoping for!  The sixth was a six furlong sprint for Maiden Special juveniles again. The race looked wide open to me, but as I scanned through the past performances I was quickly drawn to my Del Mar Handicapper book when I saw the trainer for the #3 horse, Wish and Wink, was Thomas Blincoe. Blincoe made the 40% list on a single angle, when he enlists Martin Pedroza to ride. Check this out.....in the last three years at Del Mar Blincoe has only started 28 runners, less than 10 per year. He's won with six of them, a fine 21% and earned a big flat-bet profit of over $40. But check out the comparative figures if you take out the horses ridden by Martin Pedroza - 20 starters, only TWO wins, and a flat bet loss! So, the key to playing this guy is to find one of the very few runners that Pedroza is riding and you have got something - they score at an amazing 50% rate. So when I check this out, I flip back to the past performances, and who is riding today.......you got it, Martin Pedroza! Check out the info:

 

 

Even better, note that Pedroza did NOT ride last time, so in my mind the switch to Pedroza is a sure sign of "I'm serious about winning" today! And his DRF statistics sure supported this fact. Wink and Wish is a second time starter, and Blincoe has won with 40% of those at a big $5.32 ROI! And he's got a 23% win average with maiden specials, with a $3.91 ROI. Looks like a live longshot to me! I noted in my analysis that Wink and Wish was away slowly and went evenly around the track in his debut, and I closed my comments on this guy with a prophetic prediction: "Bombs away at a double-digit payout!" Right out of the gate Pedroza had him on the lead. He was a measured length and a half to two lengths ahead as they hit the turn, the first critical point. No one was gaining on him, least of all the favorite. No one gained any real ground through the turn, and then at the most critical juncture Wink and Wish spurted clear into the lane. It was that final spurt that carried him as the late runners were closing at the wire, but he was clearly ahead at the wire in what could have been deemed another "photo" finish! When the payoffs came up he had paid a remarakable $17.20....bombs away indeed! I'd doubled down on the bet, so I cashed for nearly $90! WHOOOO HOOOOOO!

 

As I recorded the winnings, and felt some consolation for the first F-O-U-R photo losses (and the missed 5/1 winner!) I quickly flipped through the remainder of my selections at Del Mar. I need one more win to guarantee a profit I found. The next race on the program was the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile over the turf. I really, REALLY did not want to bet against Mr. Commons in this spot. I am completely convinced he will win the Breeders' Cup Mile at Santa Anita this fall, but he's missed in his last several. I could make an excuse for each time, but in his last I had a harder time when he got clear on the outside, while a bit wide on the turn, he just didn't finish with that late flying kick. AND, today regular rider Mike Smith was in Saratoga on defending Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic winner Royal Delta. I've won with jockey Brice Blanc before, but when you added up the factors: not in peak form + not at "his" track + not with his regular rider --> that all seems to equal a good time to go against. I thought I'd found a pretty good price play in Obviously. He appeared to be the LONE SPEED - I always like that angle. In his last, while at the allowance level, had seen him get six furlongs in a sizzling 1:09 flat! That kind of speed would put him long gone, and if able to back down the fractions as the loose-on-the-lead front runner he could wire this field. This morning I checked what DRF analyst Brad Free thought of the card and his "BEST" of the day was.....Obviously! So much for a big price! When the betting opened Obviously was the 6/5 favorite. I had hopes that he'd float upward, but no dice.....he left the gate as the even-money favorite. Jockey Joe Talamo had no difficulty crossing over the field before they hit the first turn and the first quarter was in a reasonable :22.3. But the half mile was a quick :45.2 - fast enough for many quality dirt sprints and it was clear that Talamo faced the proposition of either wrangling him back, which would in all probability result in him fighting him and having nothing left for the stretch, or giving him the reins and letting him run at his own pace - and so he let him go. The 3/4 fraction came up as they hit the mid-way point on the turn - a wicked 1:08.4 - that's record-setting sprint time, much less the pace you want at a mile! But, he was still clear by daylight. They straightened for home and he kicked away, stopping the teletimer for 7 furlongs at an amazing 1:20.1.....this is suicidal I thought! But he was clear and apparently strong. And then here he came - those familiar navy silks of Mr. Commons. And trust me, I know that devastating closing kick, and it was it high gear now. He had his sights set on me and it was just a matter of which came first, Mr. Commons or the wire! DESPERATELY CLOSE at the finish - would you expect anything else today? WOW. But, if you asked me, I would have said I held on. It was so very close, but I did get there first! Obviously paid $4.20, and I had tripled the bet, so the return of $31.50 guaranteed a winning day at Del Mar!

 

That would be the end of the winners on the day at Del Mar, but not the excitement. After a non-threatening 3rd with a minimum play in the 8th it was time for my "BEST" of the day - Game On Dude in the featured Grade 1 Pacific Classic. After putting away another speed horse he was clear in the stretch, then nailed on the wire by three-year-old Dullahan (see photo at left). And in the finale I had another Del Mar Handicapper play with Level Headed - he was a maiden special runner, trained by Tom Proctor and owned by Glenn Hill Farms. Recognize that combo? They'd come through at 17/1 with Ponchatrain a couple of weeks ago. Proctor is 63% with this move. Level Headed moved easily to the lead, was clear in the stretch, and then caught in the final strides.....he'd gone off at 9/1 and I had doubled the bet! Sigh...... in the six photo losses at Del Mar I "could" have won over $225 - even half of them would have made me close to $100 profit on the day. But I'll take a winning day at Del Mar and be satisfied. This week upcoming is closing week for both Del Mar and Saratoga....where did the summer go?

 

Thursday August 30

About a week ago Todd Pletcher was unveiling a highly touted juvenile by the name of Archwarrior. He was a $375,000 purchase and was being billed as the "fastest two-year-old in the country." But the track came up sloppy that day and Pletcher withdrew him. He was entered to race on the Travers undercard last Saturday, but was stuck on the A.E. list. So today was the day. When the betting opened he was 1-9, and I knew I wanted to cash in on him as none of the others were given a chance by anyone I had read or listened to. But, I thought perhaps I could make some money with exactas or perhaps in the doubles. In the end, no matter how I played with the numbers I wasn't going to make much more that a straight win bet, which is what I felt most comfortable doing. The question was, how much? A $20 win bet would have been the logical amount - enough to show he's a "prime time" bet, but not so much that I'd take a big hit in the betting money. But, if I wanted to make at least a $5 profit, I would have to invest more. I decided that he was that good.....especially after the NYRA guys talked about how he was a legitimate 1-9 horse. And so I put a $50 to win investment down..... As they broke from the gate I was surprised he didn't explode out of there, because it is typical of Todd Pletcher's juvenile runners - when they win - to explode to the front and never look back.....and incidently, at this point in the Saratoga meet, with only five days of racing left, Pletcher has won with TWENTY two-year-olds - nineteen of the maidens, and Kauai Katie who won the Grade 2 Adirondack. But he was third....then I noticed that jockey John Velasquez was already working hard on him to get him involved. I would have much preferred to see him gliding along on his own and anticipated a big explosion to the front. But when asked the question as they turned for home, he was L-O-N-G gone.....the $2.50 payout netted me a return of $62.50, for a nice profit of over $12!

 

After being shut out yesterday at Del Mar, I came back with a nice profit today....in spite of being only one-for-five. I knew after handicapping yesterday's card and today's card that I had very few "logical" or favorites; and as such I figured that I would have a tough time winning my typical 30%. But if there's one thing I am learning during this Del Mar Handicapping Project has been that you do not have to win at a high percentage to be profitable. And, I think I've learned a lot more about finding price plays. Ironically at the end of the winter season, and after the month of July I made the remark that I needed to find more price plays.....and here we are!  The Del Mar card I backed the one "logical" horse of the day, a winner of two straight who was 6/5. Idontrollonshabbos was right off the leaders, but trapped on the rail and could never find a way out....4th. I thought I had a really, REALLY big shot in the second where Disarm fit three John Sadler 40% Club angles. He led to the final jump, a disappointing second at 3/1 with a triple investment on him. In the 5th and sixth I missed after being in contention to the far turn, and then nothing.  But the score came in my last play, the 7th. I backed Racing Aptitude - and NOT because it was a Del Mar Handicapper play. In his last he faced Obviously in an allowance test. After Obviously won that race he went out to set a course record in the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile last out. I have always been a big believer in KEY races, and I wrote in my analysis if he ran to that race he was the winner. It was close in the end, but he was the winner - at 7/1....with my double investment I collected $85 and was a solid winner on the day! WHOOOO HOOOOOO!

 

Friday August 31

Last week I headed into the weekend action by winning four in a row at Saratoga through the weekday cards. This week I missed in my first pick of the week at Saratoga but scored in the last three in a row, including in the two stakes races on the Friday program. In the third race Mildly Offensive was making her first start for Todd Pletcher after having spent her early career on the west coast, and she was a stakes winner out west. As the gates opened she gunned to the lead and was being pressed through very quick fractions, including a :44 and change half mile. I thought this really set the table for the second and third choices who were finishers, but as the first challenger came to her she reached down and held them all off to win! WHOOO HOOOOO!  I watched that race at home. But I knew that if I could see the second and final pick of the day at Saratoga I'd need to watch it at the airport as we were heading to Dallas for the long weekend. Sure enough, it was about ten minutes before the plane was going to begin boarding when the horses walked into the gate for the featured Riskaverse Stakes going a flat mile on the Mellon Turf Course at the Spa. My pick was Dayatthespa, a multiple-stakes winning filly who liked to race on or near the lead. The gates opened and she was denied the early advantage, but jockey Javier Castellano was smart, he moved outside of the longshot leader to have clear run and patiently waited. As they came out of the far turn he asked Dayatthespa for her best and she responded to draw off with authority! She'd left the gate at 1/2 and paid an even $3.00. I'd doubled the bet so I collected an even $15, meaning I'd nearly doubled my money today at Saratoga - $15 bet, and $29.25 collected!

 

Another profitable day in spite of a low win percentage at the seaside resort! I knew when I recorded the morning line odds in the morning that my chances of having a high win percentage day were low, but I had big odds, so if I did I'd be a big-time winner. The late afternoon and evening was spent travelling as Kim and I took Brad and Lauren to Dallas for the Labor Day weekend. We had a mixup with the transportation getting to the hotel, but finally we were there and I was able to see the replays....... In the opener my runner was 20/1 on the morning line, but scratched. In the second I was 12/1 and had an early lead before fading to 8th. I doubled the bet in the third with Mr. Ornery who figured to run down the turf sprinters, but he was way too late getting into gear and was 5th at 6/5. In the 5th I like Mary Contrary to spring the upset. She was 6/1 on the program but floated all the way up to 12/1 at post time. She made a middle move to threaten, but faded to 8th. Then it was the "BEST of the Day" in the featured El Cajon Stakes. My pick was Fed Biz, going for Bob Baffert. He'd won two in a row but the last was in February....but Baffert is a 37% winner off a long break. Fed Biz set the pace, but second choice Jimmy Creed (#6) wa right on his hip all the way to the top of the lane.....Jimmy put a head in front but Fed Biz would not cave, he battled back to draw even at the 16th pole and then pushed his courageously in front as the neared the wire to score! He paid $4.60 - which was significant, because had he paid $4.40 I'd have lost for the day, but I came out a whole $1 in front with the added payoff!  In the finale I was 7/1 on the turf and made a nice run through the turn but couldn't sustain it.....5th. Big stakes action tomorrow!

 

 

Saturday September 1: Dallas Weekend

 

 

We're in Dallas....literally as you can see from the photo at left as our first stop was to tour the South Fork Ranch of the popular TV show, "Dallas." It was pretty cool, I must say to see all the sites of the famous home and property. The trip out there was just the first part of our "City Tour" and then we headed into the city and saw all the sites. One thing that was particularly cool was when we walked the site of the JFK assassination. When I'd visited Dallas many years ago we'd visited this site and I remember there being a short discussion that pointed out the key points of interested that were part of the conspiracy theories, but today our tour guide, Alice - who was phenomenal by the way - had so many details and documentations that showed just how absurd it is to believe that the 35th president was gunned down by a lone gunman from behind.  

 

But, the racing.......how wonderful is technology these days that I can continue my racing adventures in spite of such travel adventures? On the plane here I'd handicapped the Saratoga card, and I'd already made my selections for Del Mar. So, when we returned from the tour I was able to watch the Saratoga replays. After scoring back-to-back yesterday and three of four for the week I cashed in again on the first pick. It was an optional allowance sprint and I settled on Hillswick. He went off as the favorite at 6/5, but the race was run exactly as I'd seen it going. As he crossed the line I smiled because I'd told myself when I handicapped the card that I only wanted to invest in runners I had a high degree of confidence, with the exception of the three graded stakes. The only other race I'd found a runner I liked enough to play today came in the seventh. Now, you tell me who I should be looking for.......... Race 7, Saratoga: 7 furlongs Maiden Special Weight for two-year olds...... well, duh, is there a Todd Pletcher entry? Not only is there a Pletcher runner, he's being ridden by Javier Castellano, and owned by Micael Repole. But then, here's the odd part. I had flipped to Dave Liftin's analysis and Micromanage wasn't even listed as one of his top three! WHAT???? I looked at the selection grid and and only one guy had mentioned him - third! I looked at the field again and I wouldn't argue with their top picks, but come on, who doesn't give the Pletcher first-time starter at least a mention? Well I always do! Doubled down of course. So I go to the replays and as they leave the gate I am just astounded that he's sitting at 5/1 as they move down the backstretch. Typically in the juvenile sprints, especially at 5 to 6 furlongs you can't mistake the Pletcher runners as they are gunned to the front. But I know from all the two-year-old races at Calder that when they stretch beyond that you'd better not be on the lead, you've got to be able to finish. Micromanage is laying fourth and is running very comfortably it appears to me. They hit the far turn and Castellano asked him to pick it up. He moved easily to the leaders and as heads turned for home he accelerated and quickly was gone! No threat what-so-ever and he romped to victory. The prices were posted and Micromanage paid an amazing $13.60! With my double investment I collected nearly $70! Now that is what I'm talking about! And I've rattled off five straight at the Spa this week.  I was very surprised that Data Link ran second in the Grade 2 Bernard Baruch, but the winner was the lone speed and he had everything his own way. I had minimal bets in the other grades races.....in the ninth I didn't like either Shackleford or Jackson Bend, and I looked hard for a winner. All the "wise guys" liked a runner, who made sense but I wasn't going to bet him, especially at a short price. Shackelford scratched, Jackson Bend didn't have any punch and the "wise guy" runner won. In the Grade 1 Woodward the one thing I did know was that Mucho Macho Man would NOT win. It was disconcerting that he was Dave Liftin's "Best".....

 

 

But I know this guy and his trainer.....he's not a "star." I looked at someone to beat him and I came up with two that I liked....either To Honor and Serve, who I'd really been high on this spring, but he'd disappointed badly in his latest, or Stay Thirsty who had been a big surprise last summer in both the Jim Dandy and the Travers, then disappointed since. I went with Stay Thirsty as he's obviously a "horse-for-the-course" at the Spa and is a Todd Pletcher-Michael Repole runner. Made a threatening move on the turn and flattened out. Through the stretch Mucho Macho Man battled with To Honor and Serve, and just as I expected, Mucho Macho Man could not seal the deal. Wish I'd had the winner, but I felt good because (a) I was right and (b) I'd had a very nice profit at the Spa today! On to Del Mar...... We went out to dinner and then I came back to watch the Del Mar replays. I missed on two then scored in the co-feature, the Harry Brubaker. Missed on two more and then it was time for my "BEST of the Day!" The Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante for two-year-olds. On the west coast the star filly, and many say the best two-year-old of any gender is Executive Privilege. When I handicapped the race she appeared on paper to be tons the best, and I knew she'd be my pick. But...... in her last I had thought she'd just explode through the stretch to be tons the best. But when she ran by the leaders she ran steadily through the lane and scored as the best, but it had not been a "WOW" experience. Everything pointed to the fact that she was a quality filly, a rising star, would have no problem with the distance, and the best on paper in here. But it wasn't like picking a Zenyatta where you KNOW you're winning. So, I made her my "BEST of the Day" but didn't bet the farm on her. Everything went according to plan, she was about five off the leaders, moved easily on the turn and looked to be zeroing in on the front-running longshot. But as she turned for home about five wide she began to weave and then for every two strides forward she seemed to be moving farther towards the outside rail. At the angle she was taking, even though she was outfinishing the front-runner, it was going to be close because of her off-center closing track. Time was running out and it was clearly a photo finish! It would have been close if they'd been side-by-side, but with the wide angle lens it was even more difficult to see who'd won. As I watched the replays I was pretty sure that from MY ANGLE she was the winner. Finally the official announcement....."ladies and gentleman the unofficial winner is #8 - Executive Privilege!" YES! You can see how close it was in the photo below right. Missed on the last two at Del Mar, but the numbers came out to a break-even day at Del Mar, so I am a winner on the day!

 

 

 

Sunday September 2: Dallas Weekend - Day 2

Today was certainly the highlight of the trip to Dallas.....not only because of where we went, but most especially because of the happiness we provided to Lauren, and because she was so happy to Brad. Add to that the fact that we enjoyed the activites in and of themselves immensely and you have a GREAT day!  The first piece of good news we got was that our trip downtown was NOT going to cost us a cab fare (saving close to $60!). So we met our cab driver and set off at about 10:30 for Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, about a 30 minute drive. as we approached it was just an amazing structure to see. Once inside we had time to browse the Pro Shop (the biggest pro shop in the world we were told), and then we began our VIP Tour of the stadium. We were able to go into Jerry Jones' "perch" - he's the owner of the Dallas Cowboys - on the 50 yard line, see all the various club levels, go into a suite, tour the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders' lockerroom, the Cowboy's lockerroom, and go onto the field. The jumbotron above the field is over SEVEN stories high and the "small speakers" are the size of an SUV. How very, very cool it all was. We then bought souvenirs, and met our cab who took us downtown so we could tour the Dallas Aquarium. Also very impressive! We walked about a block to a nice steak restaurant and had steaks, then Brad and I split a serving of peach cobbler. The hotel sent a shuttle for us and we returned to the room exhausted, but thoroughly satisfied with a great day that met all our expectations and then some. Lauren, being a huge Cowboys fan - her Dad played one year for Dallas - was just beside herself all day :)  Once back in the room I was able to catch up with the racing. I had two selections at Saratoga - a maiden special for 2-year-olds....yes, Todd Pletcher. Went off at 5/1 again, and was in third, giving me visions of yesterday's double digit score, but he faded. Then in the Grade 1 Spinaway there was an entry - I thought Pletcher trained both halves, but he only trained the half that scratched :( I was the odds-on 3/5 chalk, tired in the stretch to be third.  On to Del Mar! I was able to watch the replays of the first eight races before I caught up with the live program. I had double digit longshots in the first two selections and they ran that way. Then it was time for the fifth, the co-featured $100K Torrey Pines. My pick was my "BEST" of the day where graded stakes winning Potesta was running in this listed stakes race. She had the rail and she had the speed......

 

She set sail on the front end at a pace that I thought was a little too quick, but when the field began to close some ground as they hit the far turn her rider shook the reins and she exploded to draw off by nearly a pole, setting a track record as she passed under the finish line! If only she had been something of a price, but often times it's about being right and my investment justifies my confidence. I missed in the next two and by then the 10th had finished so I watched the replay and I had scored by bursting through a wall of horses at the 16th pole.....even better I'd been 5/1 and paid double digits. I wish that had NOT been one of the picks that I only had the minimum on, but I only lost a little at Del Mar, so it didn't dampen the day at all. Tomorrow is closing day at Saratoga - Wednesday is closing day at Del Mar - and I have two picks at the Spa. Already thinking about next summer's Saratoga meeting......... they will be celebrating their 150th anniversary! I've already talked to Kim about perhaps trying to be there on Opening Day.....maybe Opening Weekend :)