July 2012

Calder / Summer Racing 2012
July 2012

 

The Churchill Downs Handicapping project is in the books, and for the first three weeks of July it will be "normal" racing - I'll handicap all tracks only on the days I intend to go racing, either virtually or physically go to the races. The daily handicapping at Churchill was very cool, and it did exactly what I wanted it to.....that is serve as a bridge between the end of the winter racing season and take me into the heart of summer. I'll take three weeks off before moving on to Del Mar now. As far as the results - I had a very good meet with good numbers through June 21. The last two weeks - just at Churchill I could not catch a cold. I was spinning out of control hitting only FOUR winners from the last 41 selections. Prior to that I was scoring at a 30% win rate. In fact, if you were to take Churchill Downs out of the June equation I had an ROI of $1.91 and scored at a 28+% for the month. But hey, you count the good with the bad. I'm just happy that for the summer I'm still well above 30% winners and "in the game" with a summer ROI of $1.80. I need to focus this month on finding some runners who will pay a price! Of the 75 winners I picked only FOUR paid double digits. In fact only 14 (18%) had payoffs that were 2/1 or better.

 

Sunday July 1The New Month Starts With A Big WIN! / Churchill Project Closes

 

Today was both the beginning and the end of chapters for the summer racing season. Today was the final day of racing at Churchill Downs, and with it the end of the Churchill handicapping project. But, it was the start of a new month. With the coming of July I will be starting a new handicapping project - The Del Mar Project, which much like the Churchill project, will start with a visit to the seaside track on Opening Weekend!   With two long days of racing I had put off handicapping the Sunday Churchill card until the morning of, knowing that with a 6:30 pm post time I had all day to get ready. While in the middle of handicapping I wondered if there were any graded stakes out west. So I went into Brad Free's selections and noticed his "Best" was in the second. I checked out Mike Superstein's picks and he too like Byrony. Both talked about how impressive this filly had been in her US debut, and that she looked to be much the best today. I've read enough of Free's selections and analysis to know when he's truly high on his "Best" of the day and when it's just his best because he had to have one for the DRF. I made her my best.....she WALKED with it! And so the month starts off on a high note!   At Churchill, my first selection was in the second, a turf sprint, and like has happened so often my pick - in spite of the short odds - matched that of both Jill Byrne and Mark Johnston. Alydarla stalked the leader under top rider Corey Lanerie, but when he asked at the top of the lane she did not responded with a burst, but was inching on the leader. At the wire, instead of an open length win it was a three way photo - but I knew I didn't win....2nd. I trailed the field from the start with my next. In the 4th it was a two-year-old juvenile maiden special sprint going 3/4 of a mile. As I'd scanned the past performances, I really liked Next Speaker, but was hesitant to make him my pick because I thougth Sky Captain could upset him. Then I noticed they were a coupled entry. So, getting two for one I thought it was a clear pick.....and they had different trainers and riders, they'd both go. Well, as post time approached (I had been watching TV) I noticed only the 2b, Sky Captain remained. Not that I would have passed the race, but he clearly was NOT my top pick. Figures.....he won by about a 16th of a mile under wraps! Good thing I'd made my bets early. I went back to watching "Revenge" with Kim and came out in time to see my "BET of the Day" in the Grade 2 Firecracker Handicap, the 7th race. But we were still on the 5th due to a weather delay!When the race was run it was obvious there would not be a lot of pace and Julien Leparoux would have to stay closer to the pace with my pick Turallure - who even at 1/9 had been both Jill and Mark's pick. Leparoux would have no part of it, sitting about six or seven lengths off a :50 half mile split.....wow. Of course when he finally went to make his run he had no chance, my second choice won at $9.00. Probably should have changed the bet :( Second in the 9th and finished a well-beaten 9th in the finale.

 

Happy Birthday America!

 

I was unsure how I wanted to handle today's racing. My initial plan had been to handicap two or three holiday cards and then play online or even perhaps go out to the races for a short time. But, after I looked at the entries I was not very enthusiastic about the races that were carded for today. And I was disappointed there were not more stakes for the holiday racing. So, I looked online for narratives and video reports on the racing. After looking and watch for a while I decided on five races initially - the feature at Calder; one of the two stakes at Colonial; the Grade 3 Swaps from Hollywood; and the two stakes races from Belmont.  But after reading about the Belmont races I was not at all confident in any of the contenders. I had a hunch, but I wasn't willing to gamble on either. In the Calder feature, the Sweettrickydancer Stakes, even trainer Milt Wolfson said that if Frolic's Revenge ran to her training he expected her to win without trouble. Bold comments, and she became my "BEST" of the day. Guam Typhoon was listed at 2/5 on the morning line for the Chesapeake Stakes at Colonial, and he'd won five in a row already. I wasn't ready to go "all in" but I doubled the bet on him. Guam Dancer was easily the best in the Chesapeake Stakes. He broke sharply, went right to the front and quickly was in front by two. The second and third choices began their run on the turn and they closed the gap to 3/4 of a length. But jockey Daniel Centeno didn't move a muscle other than a flick of his wrists and Guam Typhoon was gone. He was never asked to run and STILL set a track record!   In the Calder feature Frolic's Revenge was a heavy favorite, much like Guam Typhoon. She sat a length or two off the front runner, and I was a bit uneasy because the pace was very deliberate. When she made her move at the top of the stretch the leader also accelerated. She eventually wore her down to win by about half a length, maybe a quarter. It was close, but I knew I'd won with my BEST! It's a very good day and I still have one more race to go......  I was drawn to the Hollywood race initially because Nonios was Brad Free's "BEST" of the day. I was reluctant at first because I'd never heard of him, and the runner he'd beaten in his last, Liason, I knew - and he was not all that good - as I'd discovered when I bet him in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. So I was only going to bet a minimum on Nonios. But this morning when I went to make my bets, I just didn't have a good feeling about Nonios.....I'd never heard of him and I didn't like the way Brad Free had described him as "an improving" horse. In watching the DRF video analysis - and they both liked the chances of Nonios, but they were going with a price horse - I was intrigued by their comments about Blueskiesnrainbows perhaps having the lead all to himself. So this morning I watched the replay of his last, a third in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He was caught only in the shadow of the wire by eventual Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner I'll Have Another and proven graded stakes winner Creative Cause. I thought, "if he runs this race, or better yet gets completely loose on the lead, they will never catch him. So I made Blueskiesnrainbows the bet.......WIRE to WIRE! WHOOOO HOOOOO! A great day of racing in spite of the limited chances!

 

 

Friday July 6

 

Tomorrow is the biggest day of the summer at Calder when there are four graded stakes, including the lone Grade 1 of the summer, the Grade 1 Princess Rooney; and the Grade 2 Smile Stakes is a Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" stakes - the winner is automatically entered, expense free, into this fall's Breeders' Cup Sprint! But, as I was handicapping the final cards today I happened to check out the Hollywood Park app on my phone and went to the "Selections" area to see if anything caught my eye. I wasn't a big fan of Brad Free's "BEST" of the day, and his analysis in fact basically said there were not many good betting opportunities and he had to pick one, so here it was. But then I noticed.....in the opener Missdealornodeal was running. She'd been dominant in her last for me, and the comments in both Free's analysis and Mike Superstein's said that her step up today actually saw her facing weaker company. I put down a double bet and when the late night card opened at 10:05 pm she was L-O-N-G gone.....easy pickings! And it keeps my winning streak alive heading into the big day tomorrow!

 

Saturday July 7: Summit of Speed Day!

 

 

 

Three Stakes Wins On Summit Card Highlights 10-WIN Day!
 

The plan for weeks had been to meet with my very good friend Jeff Nelson and spend the day at Calder on the biggest day of their summer meet, the Summit of Speed! The highlights were four graded stakes and the lone Grade 1 of the meet, the Princess Rooney Handicap. Typically several top horses, riders, and trainers ship in for the day but today there were very few shippers. But we were not without stars as the best 3-year-old sprinter in the country, Trinniberg is based here and the reigning Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint champion Musical Romance is also based here....and both were entered to run today.   I met Jeff at Chilli's so he could follow me out and we got to the track about 45 minutes early to go over our picks and strategy for the day. I told him I'd received a text from our mutual friend Steve Leland that he too would be coming out at some point. In the opener there were only five runners, and our bet was on the first time starter Aim To Win who was odds-on at 1/5. But he looked TONS the best. Jeff asked about the #6 horse that the fans were also betting. And I pointed out to him that this horse had a trainer who was 1-for-120 in 2012, and a mere 9-for-383 at this distance over the last three years.....what were the odds? I said the only worry we had with our debut runner was if he didn't break cleanly. The gates opened and we broke a step slow....rushed to engage....yes, the #6 but could not stay with him and he won! When we got inside we met with Steve and he had bet the exacta. I asked him how he could have bet the 6-horse with the trainer stats - his reply, "the trainer doesn't run the race!" Good answer! But I never would have bet a horse trained by a guy with those stats. In the second I liked the 2/5 odds-on choice.....third :( Not a good start to the day. But just minutes later we scored our first winner of the day when I tripled the bet on Sneaky Kitten in a nine furlong maiden race over the turf at Belmont. This win would come into play in a key race later........ Our first winner at Calder scored in the next play when Coach Gravy was TONS the best.....hopefully the first of multiple winners over the local track!   The third at Belmont had multiple scratches leaving a mere three runners, and we did NOT have the favorite, but still managed to run third of three! In the fourth at Monmouth I had landed on Javerre and doubled the bet. He'd dueled through sharp splits two back to break his maiden, then went even faster at every call in spite of stumbling at the break. A high profile trainer topped the angles. It was a tight stretch duel the entire distance of the lane, but we edged clear to prevail in the final strides. But then INQUIRY/OBJECTION came on the board. We did come in and brush the 2nd place horse, but he never went off stride and I thought they wouldn't take him down......and they didn't! WHEW! Three straight non winners led to our next score, right back on the Jersey Shore. Of all the best on the day, I wish I had this one back to up the bet. The 6th at Monmouth was a mile on the turf. Back Away was a multiple winning three-year-old in a race with conditions for "four year olds who've not won two races, or three year olds." So he was facing horses who had only won their maiden. The field was 7-for-47 combined on the turf and Back Away was 3-for-4 on the grass. Finally, he was being ridden by the top rider in New Jersey, especially over the turf course - Jersey Joe Bravo. He WALKED with it! Paid $6.60 and I got back $33, but I should have had at least twice that on him with all those angles.

 

 Less than two minutes later we were on the Chicago turf in the 4th at Arlington. As the field came out of the turn you couldn't even see our horse, Freedom Reigns. But then he appeared with a full head of steam surging first between horses and then outside of horses. He inhaled the front-runner and drew clear by the 16th pole and continued to widen his margin to the wire! Whooo Hooooo - three in a row! Now we're talking! Our profit line was decided in two races that were run within minutes of each other........ The 7th at Belmont was an allowance on the Belmont turf and my top choice was Gossip Columnist. But, he'd been a conditional choice - why? The winner of the second at Belmont, Sneaky Kitten - remember him? Well, he'd been a "best-of-the-rest" second to - yes, Gossip Columnist. So with his win I was behind Gossip Columnist. As they spun out of the turn he looked like he would blow by the inside horse, the #2. But it was a tremendous stretch duel with the lead changing on each bob of the head. PHOTO finish. Even after three slow-mo replays most of the fans watching, including the three of us, couldn't tell. But then the numbers came up.....we were second by such a diminishing nose! On the jump before and the jump after Gossip Columnist was the winner, but on the wire where it counted, he was second :( We walked out as the gates opened and Trinniberg was sent off as the 1/5 favorite in a short field of five. Only Fort Loudon was a threat - but with Trinniberg as the lone speed he looked to be long gone before Fort Loudon rallied. But, as they reached the first quarter pole down the backstretch it was clear that Fort Loudon was going to push the issue and make Trinniberg outfinish him. Trinniberg had never had to finish off a foe, but Fort Loudon had never had to duel on the lead like this - which could find something new in their arsenal. BOTH as it turns out - it was a titanic duel for the full length of the home stretch. But on the wire it was "Horse-for-the-Course" Fort Loudon (6-for-9 at Calder, and 4-for-4 at the distance) that got the top prize.

Four disappointing efforts in stakes races followed the back-to-back photo losses. In the Grade 3 Victory Ride Agave Kiss was odds-on having not only won her first seven races, but she'd never trailed a single horse at any call. She broke a step slowly, recovered to be on the lead, but midway through the turn it was clear she was not only not going to surive the pace duel, but wasn't going to even hit the board.....fifth. Say A Novena was a distant fifth in the Grade 3 Azalea - ironically won by Another Romance who I'd won with two back in a great handicapping lesson! Regally Ready had won the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint in the fall, then run poorly in two races in Dubai. In the listed Arlington Turf Sprint he looked to get back on his winning ways - nope, disappointingly 4th. And the streak was topped when To Honor and Serve - who I thought was sitting on a huge effort - made a big move on the turn in the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap, then had nothing for the drive. Ironically, the race was won by Mucho Macho Man who's trainer was a mere 2-for-26. But he walked with it. To me this tells me that this field is subpar at best! Finally, we were back in the winner's circle in the next, the Grade 2 Smile Stakes.   I had thought Trinniberg would be an overwhelming favorite in here, but he opted to face straight three-year-olds rather than older and had scratched for the Carry Back. To me that opened the door for shipper Gantry. This guy had faced MUCH better in his last few. He stalked the longshot leader and drew off through the final furlong to an emphatic win!

We came inside in time to see Flat Out finish 2nd in the Grade 2 Monmouth Cup, but then Prospective was an emphatic winner of the Grade 3 Ohio Derby at Thistledowns! I'd made him a "Prime Time" Bet!   In an interesting side story, I took my winning ticket from the Ohio Derby and went to cash it and make my next bet at Hollywood. In spite of the prices being posted the teller said the race was not official yet. Hmmmm. I backed up, watched them pose for trophy pictures, the prices come up, and the replay start with the new odds for the next race. Back to the window, "the results aren't in yet!" What the heck is going on? I triple-checked my ticket and saw it was accurate, then made my Hollywood bet and put my Thistledowns ticket back in my pocket to cash later. On the turf at Hollywood No Silent was easily best at 3/5! And then we went down to the rail for the Grade 1 Princess Rooney.   Defending Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Champion Musical Romance was my "BEST" of the day and I invested a $50 bill on her. I was amazed, and a big concerned that she was being allowed to hover around 6/5 on the board. I thought she should be 1-5, much like Trinniberg. The crowd was betting New York invader Nicole H heavily. She clearly was the second best runner in here, but her last several had shown she was a step slower than her best - and those were in New York sprints. Making her first trip to South Florida, and being a notch below her best I just didn't see her as a legitimate challenger to Musical Romance. But, like so many other races today, it was a G-R-E-A-T race. Musical Romance surged to the front in mid-stretch and looked home free. Then here came Nicole H and it was a dramatic finish - the wire came JUST soon enough! Musical Romance paid a remarkable $4.20 and I collected $105! AWESOME!

We said goodbye to Steve after the Princess Rooney. Jeff and I had an ice cold beer as we readied for the final stakes race of the day, the Hollywood Wildcat on the turf. Our pick was Speak Easy Gal, who got bet down to 7/5 favoritiism, but ran a dismal 8th. My third choice won at 7/2.  Jeff headed off to his house before coming over for steaks on the grill at our house. I filmed my video recap and noted that later tonight my last two big-bets were at Hollywood in the Grade 2 Royal Heroine and the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup. Jeff got to the house about 45 minutes later and we had a great dinner - Kim's wonderful cooking get all the props - and enjoyed our meal with Brad and his very own Lauren who was visiting for the weekend. As an added bonus, the one-and-only Vadar D. Dog was "home" for the weekend as well :) The evening could not have gone any better, until........ In the Hollywood Gold Cup top rider Chantal Sutherland guided Game On Dude to the winner's circle. It was even more special when it was noted by the announcers on TVG that Chantal became the FIRST female to ever win the Gold Cup! Way to go Chantal, and thanks for bringing home my last "Prime Time" winning bet for the day!   When I did the numbers, I had cashed on 11-of-31 (35% WINS!) and in spite of the photo finish losses and big stakes losses I had come within fifty cents of breaking even....... a GREAT day!

 

Saturday July 14

We were in Erie, Pennsylvania visiting Kim's family this week, so this weekend's racing saw me visiting the local track, Presque Isle Downs. I had originally planned to spend the day as per usual and head home in time for dinner, but then the girls decided they wanted a girls' night out, so I extended the racing day until after 8 pm. My brother-in-law, Jason came out for the second half of the day so we had a boys day out!  For the over eight hours of racing I emerged with a dozen winners, which worked out to 30.7% - and if you have followed my racing adventures you know that his is NOT a shocking revelation as I nearly ALWAYS hover around the 30% mark. In fact I'd told Jason that I expected that today, and as we neared the end of the day with five races left I told him that he could expect me to win two more because one would be only 28%, but two would put me at 30%!   But the bottom line turned out to be a matter of inches......again. These two races at Arlington were the difference in the day. If EITHER of them come through I'm a flat-bet profit on the day. If both of them come through, I'm a $100 profit on the day and the rejoicing would be heard all over the northwestern part of Pennsylvania! But I was happy with the day, especially because my favorite horses came through as winners.

 

The day started at Monmouth where I had the 8/5 favorite, but could not hold off the second choice - what made this noteworthy is the fact that the winner was trained by a conditioner who was 0-for-34 with two-year-olds, but not today.....wow. I doubled the bet in my next, at Calder. Perfect Berry looked to be loose on an easy lead going two turns under top jockey Luis Saez. But from the start he was hounded by one and then another longshot. When I thought he'd pull away it became a dogfight to the wire, but he held on! I scored right back about twenty minutes later with my next pick when My Smartness won his debut at Belmont.  I can definitely attribute this win to my visit to the Fair Grounds this past January. There I heard a lot of comments by their on-air handicappers about a rising young training star, Ron Faucheux. He was hot as a fire cracker over the winter there. Today, My Smartness debuted for Faucheux and had a best of 63 bullet work. The jockey was Rosie Napravnik, who rides in New Orleans over the winter. I figured I'd get a fair price as the New York crowd was probably unfamiliar with this team. Sure enough, he was much the best and paid $6.00, leading me to a $30 payoff thanks to my double investment. Over the next hour and a half I missed five times, but was enjoying lunch in the clubhouse. I was third at Delaware when never really a threat, then in the first of multiple stakes at Arlington I had Sweet Luca who was turning back off a one-mile route to today's seven furlongs. I figured he'd stalk and blow by the sprinters in the lane. It was all going to plan as he made his move on the turn, swept to the lead, and then was flat through the stretch....3rd. After an off-the-board finish at Delaware, I was sure I had a winner at Arlington. Tellitlikitiscoach was a debut two-year-old going a mile on the turf (the first route for two-year-olds I'd seen), and he swept to the front in mid-strech and I was counting my money on my double investment, only to have him run down late.....second. Ugh! Third in a turf starter allowance at Delaware and I was beginning to wonder if I'd cash another ticket! I planned to head down to the simulcast area around 3 pm so I had two more races after I'd paid my bill for a delicious lunch. The first of the two was at Belmont where I liked Power Blast. He had a good trip was trapped behind horses.......  The rider looked for a seam, couldn't find one and at the 1/8th pole finally swung out. But another horse rallying strongly down the middle of the track looked to have the jump on her. But as they hit the 16th pole Power Blast looked to have found a new gear and she wore her down to score on the wire! Within ten minutes it was time for the sixth at Calder and I was on Here We Go Joe - another contender ridden by Luis Saez. He stalked the leaders and began his move to the front at the top of the lane. But then he began bearing out, Saez straightened him, losing momentum and allowing horses to gain back lost ground. I thought I wouldn't be able to hold on but Saez is such a strong rider he put him back on a straight path and pushed him home J-U-S-T in front! Whew! Two in a row and I'm back on the winning path.  When I finally found the simulcast area downstairs it was MUCH smaller than I'd remembered, and it looked like I would be on my feet most of the day. Two misses and then it was time for my BET of the DAY. I had one and only one selection at Parx. Their feature today was the Grade 3 Greenwood at a mile and a half on the main track. This was a Breeders' Cup "Win and You're In" race with the winner earning an automatic bid to the Breeders' Cup Marathon. The three top contenders had all seen each other before - Eldafeer and Birdrun had won this race two years ago and last year. But they had both been run off their feet in their last by my selection today, Redeemed. I knew he'd be the favorite, but I was counting on fair money from those handicappers who would look for a price with a proven 12 furlong runner who'd won here previously. As the wagering opened I noted two scratches........Eldafeer and Birdrun! I'd be lucky to get 1/5. But as they were loading into the gate the price on Redeemed was actually 2/5! As they left the gate he was 1/5, and before they hit the stretch for the first time his final odds of 1/9 were on the board. Miserly, but probably fair odds. He was the lone speed and a multiple graded stakes winner facing non-stakes winners. Redeemed galloped along uncontested until they hit the far turn. A presser made a run at him and jockey Ramon Dominguez let it out a notch....clear again by two, but inside the final furlong the challenger pushed again. It wasn't ever really in question, but it was a lot closer than a 1/9 favorite should have had to deal with.....still I cashed my big ticket.

Jason arrived just in time to see Redeemed win. Missed in my next two at Hollywood and Arlington. The Arlington race was the first of two photo finishes which would have made the day. No Apologies (#8, inside) was a third time starter for trainer Chris Block. He had been a good second debuting in a sprint, then tried a two-turn turf route where he made a middle move before fading. Block was 27% with runners moving from turf to synthetic. I was delighted to see him leave the gate at a huge 8/1. He stalked the leaders, split rivals in mid-stretch and was clear at the 16th pole.....I'm home free, and I had $10 to win on him! My heart was pounding because I knew this was "THE ONE" that would make me a big winner on the day. But in the final 16th of a mile here came one of the top betting choices.....still I thought I had enough left, but they were head up and head down through the final five jumps and when they flashed by the finish line it was unclear who had won. But the slow-motion replay showed the disappointing result. Sooooo close - $90+ gone in a matter of inches.....sigh...... No time to worry and weep as I scored back-to-back wins within moments of each other. Keep Me Informed drew clear at Monmouth with my double investment on his back just as they were turning for home in the Oh Say Stakes at Delaware Park. My pick here was Ancient Rome. This colt had won his debut here last fall, then was the favorite at Gulfstream on Opening Day when Kim and I were there to see the Spectacular Bid Stakes. I thought he was much the class of the race. He was right with the leaders as they made the turn for home, then he opened it up and appeared to be drawing away. The second choice came to him with the momentum and on the outside, but Ancient Rome reached down and would not be denied the win. I cashed for nearly fifty bucks on the back-to-back winners! I missed on seven in a row after that.........Amarish, who'd been spectacular in his two first starts at Hollywood just gave it up at the top of the stretch in the Grade 3 Hollywood Juvenile Championship at 1/5. Right after that Treasure Beach never fired in the Grade 1 Man O'War at Belmont. I thought he'd run huge as the lone Grade 1 winner in the field, and he was Dave Liftin's BEST of the day. In the Gr 3 Modesty at Arlington Bizzy Caroline looked to struggle with the footing over the Chicago inner and never fired, 5th at 3/1. In the Grade 3 RG Dick Memorial at Delaware I thought I really had a legitimate shot with the Euro invader Sikara. She rallied strongly for third, but the winner stole the race by setting tepid fractions without a challenger. And in the Grade 3 Jersey Shore at Monmouth I led late, only to be caught inside the final 100 yards. Finally got back on the winning side when the sensational two-year-old filly out west, Executive Privlilege ran to her press clippings. She'd won her debut in spite of a slow start and trouble in what DRF handicapper Brad Free had said was the best two-year-old race of the meet. Today she had no problem with the break, ran with the leaders until the top of the lane and then put them away professionally.

 

I have been a huge fan of Grace Hall since her debut last summer. I had her in the Grade 1 Spinaway; had her on top again in the Blue Hen Stakes, here, when she first tried two turns, and I went with her to beat the 2-yo filly champ in the Breeders' Cup (she ran 2nd). I had

followed her keenly at Gulfstream and she was one of my "BEST" of the days in the Gr 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. And, when I was in Louisville, she was my pick for the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. I thought she had a sneaky troubled trip and was courageous to run fourth that day. Today, back on her home track I looked for her to run to her romping win in the GP Oaks. She was sent off at 1/5, but as they hit the far turn the odds edged up to 2/5, which was a fair price considering her class edge on paper. She was floated five wide heading for home, but Javier Castellano had timed her acceleration perfectly and as they straightened for home she was by the others in just a couple of jumps and L-O-N-G gone! MUCH THE BEST as my "BEST" at Delaware :) Moments later Jason and I were on the rail of the terrace - interesting side story: when Jason had been laid off by GE he'd been the guy who built the railings for Presque Isle downs! - anyway, we were on the terrace for the second and my top pick, Cerveza de Barril won at a big 6/1! I had the minimum $5 investment and collected nearly $40, but Jason - being the astute gambler that he is - had put $10 to win and he collected $75! Well done my brother-in-law!   Next up was the Grade 3 Arlington Handicap where I really like Boisterous, who was dropping out of a Grade 1 race. My top three selections were Boisterous, Rahystrada (who'd won this two years ago) and Mister Mardi Gras. It was a photo finish with Rahystrada holding on by a neck to beat me, and Mister Mardi Gras third - the trifecta was worth over $150 and the exacta was worth over $30.....of course all I had was a winning ticket on Boisterous......sigh..... (see photo at top of this journal entry).

 

At this point I turned my selection sheet to the third and final page. I had five selections on my sheet, and I counted my current total.....10-for-34. I told Jason after I did the calculation on my phone that I was nearly certain I'd win two of the final five. When he asked why, I said because if I won one of them I'd be sitting at 28% for the day, but if I scored in two of them I'd be just over 30% - my "typical" winning percent.   Missed again at Arlington - finishing the day 0-fer there....very disappointing on their big stakes-laden card (although to be fair I was oh-so-close on several, and at good prices). And then it was time for the second of the graded features at Hollywood. I have really fallen for Lady of Shamrock, as she appears to have enormous talent on the turf. Today she was stepping up into Grade 1 company and stretching out to a mile and a quarter. But I thought she was a "much-the-best" winner based on her record. She won four turf races in a row, going from allowance, to listed stakes, to a Grade 3 heading into her last, the Grade 2 Honeymoon Handicap. That day her regular rider, Mike Smith, was in New York to ride on the Belmont Stakes card, so she had a substitute rider. But in a field of five, how much trouble can you get into when you have the best horse? Apparently alot! He saved ground, but didn't come out when he first had a chance, then when a seam opened, it closed before he could get her there. He had to make a hard right turn and swing out three wide, losing precious ground and momentum with only a 16th of a mile to go, but she was FLYING late, and missed by the most desperate of noses. So disappointed that day, so I was waiting for today. Mike Smith was back on board and I knew she was just the best. In spite of the forecasted mild pace I knew she'd run right by them again, if she had the trip.  Quickly Smith settled her to the back and saved all the ground heading to the far turn. His choices were to swing out for a five wide trip around the turn, or wait for a seam. Certainly we are not going to have traffic issues again..........or are we!   As they came out of the turn there really wasn't anywhere to go, but the long-shot leader had drifted ever so slightly off the rail. Smith asked Lady of Shamrock for her run, and unlike many thoroughbreds who won't dive through a tight hole on the fence, the Lady gunned to the opening. She has a devestating turn of foot and as soon as she hit the opening the race was over. She blew by the leader and really was motored down as she cruised to an open-length win. She paid a fair $5 and with my "prime-time" investment I cashed for $50!

 

I was surprised that I missed in my final selection at Presque Isle, but one thing that seems to be true here is that the logical horses do not win. I would be very interested in the stats on the favorites as they see to win very infrequently. The last big bet of the day was the final graded stakes race of the day at Hollywood - the Grade 2 A Gleam Handicap at seven furlongs. This was also a "Win and You're In" Breeders' Cup race. I wrote on my sheet, and told Jason that I WANTED Switch to win as much as I had handicapped her to win. I also told him that in my mind I've never seen a horse so mis-managed. While it's true she's had great races and finished in the money in big graded events around two turns, it's been so very clear to me that her forte is to sprint, especially seven furlongs. She's run second in back-to-back Breeders' Cup FIlly & Mare Sprints - and both of those times I thought she'd been mis-managed in her preps to get her there on top of her game. She opened 2012 on the Kentucky Derby Day undercard, in the seven furlong Grade 1 Humana Distaff. Since she'd run back-to-back seconds over this track in the Breeders' Cup races and this was "her distance" I thought she had a big chance. But off a long break, she just wasn't at her best...... and the winner set a track record that day. Switch came back here, where she's always run exceptionally well in an overnight stakes, but it was at six furlongs. Because that is not her best distance, I didn't bet the race. She was a non-threatening fourth. BUT......she seemed to run better and earned a better Beyer. Then I read that her trainer, John Sadler said she was training like her old self for this race. I wanted her to win and prove she's still very talented. But I was a bit concerned when Sadler was quoted that today was a "make or break" race for Switch.....if she didn't run well, again, they'd have to face the possibility that she was past her prime. The one thing I knew was that if she had any of her old magic left, we'd see it today. The race was over her favorite track, at her her best distance; she had strong finishing rider Garret Gomez today (who is also a GREAT rider with big money on the line) AND today's field had several front-runners to set the table for Switch's late kick - the quickest of which would never get the full seven furlongs. Gomez settled her near the back, but not too far off the pace down the backstretch. As they swung through the turn she made her move, but there were four across the track. Too late to dive inside and risk losing momentum, Gomez took the overland route and came to them, but the six-wide trip caused her to be about four lengths back with a furlong to go, and she just had that "flat" look to her and I thought, "oh no, she doesn't have the will to try and run them down." But all credit to Gomez, he refused to take no for an answer and pushed her. Switch quickly found another gear and ran them all down and drew off to win by open lengths. It made my day! I had the biggest grin when I walked back over to Jason with my winning ticket. And so a good day came to a close - actually it had a nice final touch when Jason and I went out, just the two fellas, for wings and beer before heading back home.  If only those photos - even just one of them - had gone the other way....................sigh...........

 

Sunday July 15
..........Closing Day at Hollywood Park

 

After the full day of racing yesterday I'd done no handicapping for today, especially since I knew I'd be at my in-laws for a huge family reunion all day. But, I did have the common sense to check out the Hollywood app on my iPhone and look at the selections. Brad Free made Daahmer his "BEST" of the day in the feature race, the Grade 3 Sunset Handicap, and Mike Superstein made him his top choice; if you read his comments you could tell there was little doubt in what he thought of him. If was a compact field of four and he bided his time to the far turn and then simply ran away from the field without even being asked. Cashed my last race at Hollywood!   Next up - The Del Mar Handicapping Project with opening day this coming Wednesday - July 18!

 

 

 

July 18 - Opening Day at Del Mar

 

After a very long day of travelling from Pennsylvania to California, I watched the replays of the first day's card. The good news is I had two winners - but they were both in races I did not bet. I had the right horses, but there were troubled trips or simply not running to their ability that cost me. Tomorrow is Opening Day at Saratoga so I have picks at both the "botique" tracks for tomorrow.....but for now, we are enjoying the great California weather!

 

July 20 - Opening Day at the Spa!

 

We had a great Thursday driving up and down the coast and topped the day off with dinner at Joe's Crab Shack where we feasted on Dungenous Crab.....yummy. When I watched the Del Mar replays I went 0-for-3 - again having a troubled trip where I was checked three times. So, today I was hoping that the Spa would provide me with a winner or two. I only had four picks...... We had a great Thursday driving up and down the coast and topped the day off with dinner at Joe's Crab Shack where we feasted on Dungenous Crab.....yummy. When I watched the Del Mar replays I went 0-for-3 - again having a troubled trip where I was checked three times. So, today I was hoping that the Spa would provide me with a winner or two. I only had four picks......

 

AND.......the first winner at Del Mar, AND a BIG SCORE!

 

We had spent the day at the San Diego Zoo (see photo below) and it was a great day. Like all the days since we've been in San Diego the weather was simply amazing. We said to each other several times, "Do you feel the breeze? WOW!" The temperatures most of the day were in the 70s until late in the day, and the aforementioned breeze was almost chilly at times :) Then we went out to dinner at a really nice beachfront restaurant. We had walked to it (about a half mile) and when we walked back with the sun setting Kim remarked she was chilly and needed long sleeves for our walk to get ice cream. When we returned I opened up twinspires.com to watch the Del Mar replays.  FINALLY, a winner! In my first play of the day I liked A Toast To You sprinting on the turf. According to the Del Mar Handicapper, when trainer Peter Miller puts Garret Gomez in the irons they win at a 38% rate. It was close, but it was the first win of the summer and I'm off the 0-for skid! Missed in the next at astronomical 45/1 odds. But then - and this is what I love about racing - in less than a minute and a half I'm beating Del Mar. In my third selection of the day I'd picked Arabian Storm in a six furlong claiming race. Trainer John Sadler has seven categories where he's in the "40% Club" according to the Del Mar Handicapper, and one of them is moving a horse from turf to synthetic. That was what Arabian Storm was doing, so I doubled the bet when I made it early in the morning. He sat right off the longshot leader to the turn, caught him, opened up and drew off by open lengths. But here's the good part - his final odds were 11/1! When I saw the $24.20 payoff I was thinking I'd get back close to $60 and then I remembered, OH YEAH.....I'd DOUBLED the investment.......I got back over $120! WHOOOOOO HOOOOOOOO!

 

 

July 21 - A Day At Del Mar

 

 

 I had looked over the stakes races around the country and couldn't really find anything that was of interest to me with once exception - the Grade 2 Delaware Handicap featuring a rematch between Royal Delta and Awesome Maria. I had some strong feelings on the subject, and so I wanted to bet this race. When they met this winter I was all over Awesome Maria - it was at a flat mile - far too short for Royal Delta; Royal Delta was targeting the Dubai World Cup; and Awesome Maria loves Gulfstream. But since then Royal Delta gave one of the best performances of the year in her last in crushing the Grade 2 Fleur De Lis at Churchill while Awesome Maria gave a dull performance in losing for the first time in nearly two years. Today the rematch not only favored Royal Delta on form, but it was at a mile and a quarter - arguably Royal Delta's best distance AND arguably beyond Awesome Maria's scope as she'd never tried it.....not such a great idea to experiement when she's down on form. As they hit the backstretch the longshot front runner had rattled off fractions of :22 and change and :45.4 for the half - as the announcer said, they were sprinter splits. Somehow, Royal Delta was tracking the leader and then she and Awesome Maria went at it! But by midway on the turn Royal Delta had put that one away and had opened up. But as she turned for home it was clear the pace had really cooked her. It was closer than it should have been, but considering the pace, it was a championship effort - and I cashed big time. I had bet $20 to win online and I also bet $20 to win at Del Mar! Excellent way to start the day off!   I did not have bets in the first two races, but Joel bet a $1 Quinella box in the opener. He spent $6 and won! He got back $7 :) In the third race it was my "BEST" of the day. It was the Grade 1 Eddie Read going nine furlongs on the turf. The odds-on favorite was champion Acclamation. He would have been a short priced favorite anyway, but literally no top runners were willing to take him on. He'd run five straight races earning triple Beyers - his four rivals had NONE between them. All his races were WINS in graded company - his rivals combined for a single Grade 3 win. What about six back - maybe, if you stretch it, he could falter to that level.....yeah, he earned a 99 speed figure and won a Grade 1! As if all this wasn't enough, he was the LONE SPEED.

 

The most amazing thing about the whole handicapping episode? Accalamation was sitting at 1/9 with about 10 minutes to post time. Joel asked what that would pay and I told him $2.20, but that was probably the "fair odds." I told him if we got 1/5 it was a solid bet; if we were ever so lucky to get 2/5 it was flat out highway robbery. Sure enough......with about five minutes to post time he crept up to 1/5, and as they approached the gate he was 2/5! Totally unbelievable!  The gates opened and shocker of shockers, Accalamation went to the front. And then the most amazing thing.....as they hit the straightaway his odds flashed once more - to an amazing 1/2! Seriously? With only four horses to beat? Well, I'd put $50 to win on him and I was feeling awfully good about my bet. Then the first fraction, :25 and change - way too slow for anyone to catch him....but then the half mile split was :49 and change. I told Joel this race was over. He romped to score and paid $3.00 - I collected $75! So I am two-for-two and I have collected $135, $45 in clear profit and from the structure of my bets I'm guaranteed to be a winner today!  Good thing, because over the next six races I didn't cash a ticket! In the 4th I was moving well, but went wide into the stretch and hung. Then I stalked the leader, drew to the lead, battled through the stretch and was out-bobbed. Next I rallied wide, only to be second when a horse snuck through on the rail. In the seventh it was a nw2L and I was 16/1 on a horse dropping into this level for the first time - never threatened. In the eighth and the ninth I rallied - only to be second both times!

In the 8th it was the Osunitas Stakes and I really liked Byrony. She was flying on the outside, but could not get to the winner - second. So in the next I had Adriatic Moon - who was flying up the inside! Track announcer Trevor Denman was calling her name, then the other back and forth through the stretch, but I lost in the final strides. Made me mad afterwards because the winner was a perfect fit for a 40% Club play - in fact I'd used the angle in the last race yesterday and lost : Trainer Tom Proctor using jockey Garret Gomez, and they'd connected over 40% of the time. Did it again for over $20 pay out.  I told Joel that we should "load up" on this next and last bet because I was soooo due to win! Dreamcatcher was the 7/5 favorite as they approached the gate. Then the #3 horse had an issue and the jockey fell off/was thrown off. Scratched - and he had been the 5/2 second choice. With all that money taken out of the pool, Dreamcatcher dropped to 4/5 on the next flash of the board. By the time they left the gate he was back up to 1/1. He good a great trip sitting fourth behind dueling leaders, moved strongly to them on the turn, and Trevor Denman you could tell was about to call out his blowout win, but then as they hit the upper stretch his drive stalled - well, more like the runner-up had something left. It was yet another thrilling stretch duel! But in the final yards (see at right) I was the winner!  Because I'd been a bit nervous about fighting the traffic to get out in time and make the airport I'd decided to make this bet online rather than stand in line to cash when I won. But, we ended up waiting for Joel. Dreamcatcher paid $4.20, I collected $21 and for the day I finished 3-for-9 (33%, just above my average); and I was second FOUR times. I'd put $110 through the windows and collected $156 for nearly $50 in profit. It was a VERY GOOD day indeed! And the weather - just glorious all day!

July 22 - Back Home To Florida......Triple Winner Day To Close Week

What a great trip to San Diego, and I just LOVED the day at Del Mar! Like I told Joel towards the end of the day, it was great to be at Del Mar for the experience, but it was such an added bonus to have a winning day on that day, including hitting the BET of the Day. After the final race Kim and I drove directly to the airport and were on a 10:35 pm flight. We landed in Detroit at about 5:45 am and then made our connection to Ft. Lauderdale where we landed at 10:30 am. Before lunch we were home and it was all behind us. But, the racing adventure goes on! On the plane back to Florida I handicapped the first half of the card, and then finished at home so my selections were online by 2 pm local time - before noon Del Mar time.  And the week finished on a positive note......won three out of six including the Grade 2 feature! In the opener I had picked Idontrollonshabbos to win. When I had begun handicapping the race I had originally listed him as my second pick behind a maiden special dropper shipping from Lone Star. But as I started to describe him I noted that not only had he lost his last in a photo, but that both the winner AND the show horse had come back to score....an Ultra KEY race! So I moved him to the top and he romped home as much the best. I missed the next three in a row, and unfortunately they were the three plays of the day where I had "added money" bets. Always A Chance was a Del Mar Handicapper 40% Club pick and seemed to be moving along the rail into the stretch, then stopped. I liked Holladay Road in the third, the California Dreamin' Handicap. I did not like the defending champ, Norvsky closing in a five horse field - but it turned out my horse was the trailer and rallied too late while Norvsky took down the top prize again. In the 5th I really liked Huntingman. John Sadler is in the "40% Club" for seven different angles, but the one here was with jockey Garrett Gomez, where he'd scored 4-of-8 times; and Gomez has been red hot this week. Add to that the fact that in four mounts on Huntingman, Gomez had notched three wins and a photo finish. But today as they spun out of the turn something had to have gone wrong because Gomez wasn't trying and the horse was just cantering. Sigh..... My last two selections were in the final two races of the day. In the 9th, it was the Grade 2 San Clemente. This was a one-mile race on the turf for three-year-old fillies. There weren't any turf stars running, but multiple graded stakes winning star Eden's Moon was. The problem was it was her turf debut. And I had really been all over her in her last two - and she'd let me down. If she fired and ran to her class, loose on the lead she looked to be long gone. But if she didn't fire, or didn't take to the turf she looked to be overbet. So I selected her at a minimum play. She fired her best shot and dominated the win - at a mere 4/5. But, I had the winner and cashed! In the finale there wasn't just one Bob Baffert maiden running, but two, as an uncoupled entry. I was drawn to #7 Castletown however. I have to admit that anytime the hot Chantal Sutherland (and I don't mean hot as in hot riding, but hot as in such a little sexpot!) I give that horse a second look. Castletown had fired a sharp bullet work, and it just seemed "right" that Chantal had won the first race of the week and now the last race. When the gates popped open Castletown was dueling with the 3/5 favorite - one of the Baffert's. And as they hit the turn, it was Chantal who opened up on the field and ran away! Whooo Hoooo! Paid nearly $9 and I'd scored for the third time (from six selections) on the day! A great way to end a great week.

Wednesday July 25

 

I knew Saratoga was open today, and their feature was the Grade 2 Lake George for sophomore fillies. I wasn't sure who was running, but thought perhaps Dave Liftin could steer me in the right direction. When I looked over his analysis he had made Cease in the 8th as his best. Why? Because today's 8th was set to go 9 furlongs on the main track and Cease was a perfect 3-for-3 at the distance. So I put my money on him; and in the Lake George I went with Stephanie's Kitten - whom I'd won with at Churchill Downs on Derby Day.  Cease did not disappoint and was going away through the final 16th of a mile. In the Lake George Stepahanie's Kitten was moving late, but got checked and steadied. Johnny V. tried to bull his way through a seam at the 16th pole but was shut off and he had to veer inside after taking up again......too much to overcome, 4th at 2/1.  Later, after we got home from going to the "The Dark Night Rising" - the third in the latest Batman triology, I watched the replays from Del Mar. The first two races were both maiden claimers for 2-year-olds. My pick in both had an identical analysis....... Peter Miller scores at a 30% rate with first time starters, and according to the Del Mar Handicapper when Garret Gomez is on board they team up to score 38% of the time. Both were runaway winners! Missed in the next when second at 9/1 and then 4th at 4/1 in the last bet of the day. So for the day I'd clicked on three of six races and walked away a winner for the day!

 

Thursday July 26

 

Today was a mid-week track day - I'd thought of making it one anyway, but when my good buddy Keith Moran arrived from Illinois to visit for a few days it was just the thing to do! And yes, for those of you who know the "legends of Keith" - he hit not one but two big trifectas by simply playing numbers, without any handicapping whatsoever! One is story worthy, but that's for a little later. For me it was a sub-par day, but I walked away at the end of the day happy because I'd rallied to make "a day" of it and more importantly I'd scored in my "BEST" of the day at Del Mar.    The started the day when I missed out in the opener at Calder with a double bet when I thought my horse stood a chance to wire the field, and he broke behind the field - so much for that. Even Keith said at the conclusion of the race, "well that unfolded in a completely different way than I'd seen it happening!" - indeed. My "best" at Calder scratched out of the 2nd, leaving just a three horse field. We both said the horse to bet was the #5 and he was the "longshot" at 2/1. But neither of us had any confidence in it - he won by open lengths.....sigh. The next bet was at Saratoga where I was completely against one of my favorite fillies, St. John's River. She is a deep closer and the race had no speed. North Freeway looked like the lone speed and trainer Anthony Dutrow was a Saratoga 40% Club member with allowance/$40K and up claimers, winning at 50% - AND over the last two seasons he'd won 71% with Ramon Dominguez on board! Doubled up at 9/2 and he led to the top of the stretch and quit. At least St. John's River did not win, just got up for 2nd. I was then 2nd for the first of many times with a maiden special at Delaware. And another second when Our Plum Putting set the pace to mid-stretch at Calder before stopping at 4/5. 

Third at Arlington, second in a photo at Saratoga at 5/1, and then four more misses before my first score. But one of those was "the trifecta story" of the day. In the 4th at Saratoga I liked the #4 horse, in fact I'd doubled to win. Keith took my horse, that I really liked and not only did not bet it, didn't put it second, but SINGLED it to show. And threw the 1-2-3 in first and second. The 2 won the race at 24-1, the 1 ran second, and my horse was third. I asked him ..... WHY just third, all by himself, not even with some others? No response, just a grin as he cashed a trifecta ticket for over $400. Wow...... FINALLY I won, and I was proud of myself with the way I handled the bet. I had lost ten in a row, had three scratches, and had run second three times. But when I looked at the 5th at Saratoga I "knew" Bernie the Maestro was going to wire the field. I had seen him run previously, and knew he had the talent to do so; but what appealed to me even more was that he'd been claimed two back and had run lights out in his last. I saw another such performance. So, the more Iooked at it, I just "felt" I was due and was even more confident that he'd win. So I doubled the bet (see me above). He walked with it under wraps and paid $6.60 - I was back on track when I cashed for over $30. I came right back when I doubled the bet at Arlington Park where my former student Rosemary Homeister was on board the lone speed. She set the pace handily to the far turn, then coming out of the turn the horse COMPLETELY blew the turn, almost running to the outside fence. You have to be kidding Keith and I said to each other, but the horse was so good he just ran by them all again! Paid $8 and I got another $40! Whoooo Hoooooo!   I led the entire stretch in the next at Saratoga and was rund own late at 4/1. Grrrr. And then I won my third of four when Vegas No Show romped in a Delaware maiden two-turn event for two-year-olds. I missed in the 7th and 8th at Saratoga before we hit our last winner on track. Scenario Analysis came four wide for top Spa trainer Chad Brown to take the lead, then had to hold off an inside challenge before returning over $7 - and I got almost $40 back!  As we headed out I made my five selections for Del Mar, and I really thought I'd win at least two if not three - the percentages were in my favor to get my "usual" 30% for the day, and my "BEST" of the day was still to come. But after watching "Big Brother" on televsion I sat down to watch the replays and I got a second, and two thirds from the four "other" Del Mar races. However in the "BEST BET of the DAY" Coil romped home at what I thought was a generous price of $3.60 - so when I go back to the track on Sunday for Haskell Day (with my Mom, and Keith) I will have a nearly $40 ticket to cash to start the day!

 

Friday July 27 - Horray for the Del Mar Handicapper!

 

 

What a W-O-N-D-E-R-F-U-L day. Especially so since (a) I had expected to finish strongly at Del Mar yesterday and didn't, and (b) the big day came exclusively at Del Mar which is the focus of my summer handicapping this year. MORE than made up the small loss from yesterday and then some! And just added to the bottom line at Del Mar as well.  Because Friday has a late post time of 4:00 pm San Diego time, the last race wouldn't be over until well after 10 pm tonight. But that worked out ok as my Mom, sister and niece were arriving at 9:40 from Ohio. Their flight was about 45 minutes late so it wasn't until after eleven that I sat down to watch the replays. After a close second - when it appeared I'd be an easy winner - in the first betting race the third rolled around. It was a turf sprint and I had settled on Grumpy Small Mouth. He'd equaled his career best Beyer in his last, when trying the turf for the first time and winning a Hollywood turf sprint. I liked the fact that according to the Del Mar Handicapper Garret Gomez wins 38% of the time when riding horses trained by Peter Miller. Grumpy went right to the front and was MUCH the best. I couldn't believe he was let go at 6/1 and paid $15.20! Collected nearly $40! OK, that is what I'm talking about.....or so I thought!  In the very next race I had another Del Mar Handicapper play from the 40% Club. I had handicapped today's card on Wednesday when the program odds were not available. I've learned that the DRF morning line odds are completely unreliable.....not only are they inaccurate as to the chances of the horse winning, but they also do not reflect - at all - how the crowd will bet the horse. So, when I have the early past performances I pretty much ignore those odds. And in this case I didn't even look at them. As I started the handicapping I go through the runners and look only at the trainer and compare it to the 40% Club. Right away, the top horse, #1-Candy Waltz, fit exactly. He was trained by top Del Mar trainer John Sadler who has seven angles in the 40% Club. One of which is when he sends out horses owned by the Craig Family (of Jenny Craig Weight Loss fame) he wins an astounding 63% of the time. I also knew from reading the Del Mar Handicapper that Sadler is far more deadly with maiden claiming runners than with maiden special - today's race.......a maiden claimer. So as I opened the replay video I flipped open the program. OH MY! Candy Waltz is listed at 10/1 on the morning line and had left the gate at 9/1! RIght away I'm seeing a HUGE score at those odds, and I have doubled the bet! As they broke out of the gate Candy Waltz is sitting aperfect pocket trip behind five horses. They turn for home and he needs a place to run.....and a small gap opens between the rail front-runner and the horse just to his outside. There was some slight bumping, but Candy Waltz burst through and was clear in mid-stretch. The finish was officially a photo, but it was never really in doubt. As I changed to the results screen I saw the $20.80 payoff and I was delighted! But as I went to copy the image Trevor Denman announced there was an inquiry against not only the winner, but the TOP FOUR. Had I been watching live I would have been a nervous wreck, but I'd seen the payoffs. With the double investment I cashed for over $100! At this point it was a great day regardless of the rest of the picks. But, for ego's sake I did want to win the "BET of the Day" where I had pounded Richard's Kid in the Grade 3 Cougar II at a mile and half on the main track. His last two Beyers were triple digitis - none of his rivals had a single triple Beyer; he was a "Horse-for-the-Course" with a record of 4/2-1-1; and he was a multiple graded stakes winner. EASILY! Capped a 3-for-6 day with a profit of nearly $120......more than covering yesterday's small loss. WHOO HOOO!

 

 

 Saturday July 28: Sweep Saratoga Graded Stakes!

 

This weekend was the unofficial birthday celebration for me - August 1 being "the day" because this was the weekend that Lauren (Brad's girl) would be in town. They had made plans to go to the Marlins baseball game on Sunday, so if we were going to do the annual Ice Cream Celebration at nationally renowned Jaxson's Ice Cream Parlour the best day was Saturday. I was in a bit of a quandry as to what to do about the racing, but then I saw that the big day at Monmouth Park, Haskell Invitational Day, was Sunday, and the bigger of the graded events at Del Mar was also on Sunday. So Sunday became the "track day" for the weekend and Saturday became a family day. But, I still had my Del Mar handicapping, and when I looked at who was running at Saratoga I liked horses in both the featured graded stakes.  First up was the Grade 1 Diana Stakes going nine furlongs on the grass. It had rained a lot in New York, in fact the main track was sloppy. But the turf races were still on - do you hear that Calder! My pick was Winter Memories who had disappointed going a mile in her last. But today's distance and the cut in the ground was all in her favor. She sat a little closer to the pace than normal and when Javier Castellano asked her she exploded as she has done in the past. The devastating acceleration drew a "oh my, look at Winter Memories" call from Tom Durkin. She won handily with my double investment. The second feature was the Grade 2 Jim Dandy stakes, the prep race for the mid-summer's derby, the Travers Stakes. I thought the field lacked a superstar, but when I looked over Dave Liftin's comments I noted that he listed Alpha as being unbeaten over the Saratoga main track. I made him my pick. Jockey Ramon Dominguez took him right to the front and he was able to back the fractions WAY down. Easily wire to wire!   Of the late races at Del Mar I won twice (from eight - nearly broke even at the seaside track). I didn't score in either of the featured stakes races. Ironic that I'd been following Rail Trip ever since he left the west coast a year ago, but today I didn't support him - of course he won and paid $11! But, for the day I was four for ten overall and made a nice little profit! And the ice cream was awesome!

 

Sunday July 29

 

Haskell Sunday and I headed out to Calder with my Mom. Our plan was to stay through the final Calder race, they only had nine, and then head home to watch the big races on the big screen being broadcast by HRTV.  Because of the early post time at Monmouth I had made the first two bets online. When we got to Calder I watched the replays and I had split the two races, breaking even. The first race I bet on track was the third from Monmouth where I really liked Ciao Bella. She was the prototype Todd Pletcher quality runner coming off a break. He pulls this move all the time at Gulfstream - a runner show talent in a big effort, he lays them off and brings them back at Gulfstream to score again. Ciao Bella had dominated at Gulfstream - as my BEST - and he sent her to the shelf. Today she returned. I tripled the bet! As the gate opened she went straight up in the air and then broke a stride sideways......sigh.....but Javier Castellano was patient with her. She moved up down the backstretch, surged on the turn, and exploded through the stretch to draw off by open lengths. She would have won by the length of the stretch without trouble! Then I went on one of "those" runs - and not the good kind......2nd at Calder after leading to the final fifty yards; 2nd at Monmouth where I took the lead at the top of the lane and caught late; stalked the pace on the turf at Calder and had nothing for the stretch - 6th; 2nd at Saratoga where I led from gate to deep stretch; and then two off the board finishes. WOW.  But then I was in the winner's circle in back-to-back races. Riolama in the 4th at Saratoga was a perfect example of Chad Brown's 40% Club status where he does SO well with maidens at the Spa. She exploded in mid-stretch and drew off with authority. Right back, this time at Arlington. I preferred the top half of the Rivelli entry but she'd been scratched for her entry-mate. Richiegirlgotsoul rocketed out of the gate and went wire to wire without ever being threatened. After two misses I scored my first stakes win of the day and on the Monmouth card in the Teddy Drone Stakes. My pick was Royal Currier. I thought he'd sit a perfect trip and I did NOT like the two Todd Pletcher runners - one of which is one of my favorites, Travelin Man, but he's proven he ONLY wins at Gulfstream. He proved best at $6.80 and I cashed for over $30!

 

 

I watched the first series of replays on HRTV and missed in two Monmouth stakes and the undercard stakes at Saratoga before it was time for the featured race at Saratoga, the Gr 2 Amsterdam Stakes, a 6 1/2 furlong sprint. My pick was Currency Swap as my BEST at Saratoga. He'd won his first two races of his career at Saratoga last summer, including the Grade 1 Hopeful, so he obviously loves the course. He'd not won since, but was coming off his best career effort last out when second in a graded stakes sprint at Belmont. AND he had a sharp bullet work for today. He stalked a wicked pace today, but in the final furlong he kicked in another gear and was LONG gone! WHOOOO HOOOO, squared :)

 

 I had thought, at first glance that Paynter would wire the Grade 1, $1 million Haskell, but I wasn't convinced of it, so I went with the Todd Pletcher trained, once-beaten Gemologist. Pletcher was quoted as being really happy with the way he was coming up to the race, and he'd only been beaten once - in a rough-trip Kentucky Derby. He surprised the field by going to the front and then Paynter ran right by him in the stretch :( I watched some Olympics with the family and then later it was time to watch the Del Mar replays on HRTV. I missed with the first four picks, the last being a solid 11/1. Doyouseemecoming was blocked from the turn to the 16th pole before finally getting free and she exploded to be a fast-closing third. Not sure she would have won, but I would have liked for her to have had the chance. And so the day boiled down to my BET of the DAY - Amazombie in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby, the feature at Del Mar. His main rival, and the certain top choice on the board would be another favorite of mine, The Factor. But that one looked to have company on the front end, and I remembered his connections talking about how much better he was at 7 furlongs - which was sustantiated by his record at the distance. Conversely, Amazombie had amassed career earnings of $1.7 million in 26 races......but over $1.3 million of that was won in on six races at today's three-quarters-of-a-mile distance. Sure as I had envisioned it, Amazombie sat third in the clear, and as they turned for home he exploded after the top two. he caught them with a 16th to go and blew by to score with ease. The first step towards defending his Breeders' Cup title ...... this time on his home track at Santa Anita - and we will be there!