Calder / Summer 2012
April
With Gulfstream closing a month early, it's quite unique to be playing the races at Calder during early April. Usually Keeneland, in particular, is a Gulfstream spring track - but not this year. I had intentions of heading to Calder on Opening Day, Monday April 9 but the card had no stakes races and was made up primarily of very low level claiming events.... and Brad was home for his first interview for a career job at a local law firm. I also had a graduation meeting/lunch so I passed. I probably would have gone out on Thursday, but again I was committed to a graduation meeting - it was actually pretty cool as we went to the new Marlins' Stadium in Miami. And so I played my first two races of the summer via twinspires.com.
The first was the Grade 1 Maker 46 Mile, and it featured one of my favorite runners, Get Stormy. He looked to be long gone as the lone speed, and with the distance only a mile I thought he was solid. He set what I thought was a pretty moderate pace and was loose with minimum pressure all the way to the head of the lane. But when the pressers picked up their pace, Get Stormy had nothing to offer in resistance and faded to fourth. Sigh...... not how I'd envisioned starting off the summer. The second and final race of the day was the Grade 1 Apple Blossom, worth $500K. The headlines on this race had featured the reigning Horse of the Year, Havre de Grace, who ducked the race as her connections were unhappy with the weight assignments. BOOOOOOO! I wasn't a fan of her being the HOY and am even less of a fan now. That left the race pretty much Plum Pretty's race to lose. She stalked the pace and drew off under a moderate hand ride. Whooo Hoooo.....first winner of the summer!
Saturday April 14 - First Day On Track
I know it's going to sound like a lot of excuses, but this is how I feel......when we got back from Australia two weeks ago I was immediately "on" as I handicapped for the Florida Derby and then spent the entire day that Saturday (second day back) on track with 17 fellow race fans. From that moment on I have meetings and/or committments nearly every single day. I just am tired and yet to "recover" my energy level from the great adventure. It has not helped that my sleeping at night has been poor nearly every night since we got back as well. What ever......
So I handicapped for my first visit to Calder of the summer and I only handicapped four tracks because I was just out of energy. I really think, in retrospect, that this contributed to the way the day went. First, because I had only handicapped four tracks - and one of them was Santa Anita - that meant that there was at least 15 to 20 minutes between races. Toss in the fact that all the Calder turf races were off the grass (because, you know, we had a single rain storm in the past 2 1/2 months and it was a sunny day with a lot of wind obviously drying out the course!), and all the Santa Anita races were also off the turf; adding to the schedule changes, two of my main track Calder picks scratched. Long story --> short......a slow day at the races, and boring as I waited for the races to come around. The day was made even longer when through first a three hour drought without a winner and then a two hour drought.....wow...... 
The way the day started, if you had told me it would be a long day I would have disputed your theory! My first selection was the opener at Calder. My selection was bet down to 6/5, surged to the lead at the top of the stretch then had no answer when the third choice swept by. But ten minutes later I scored my first genuine upset of the summer. It was the opener at Keeneland and I was backing Frances Gardner. As I've said before, when handicapping Keeneland you have to look for runners who've either had experience over the surface and/or have worked well recently over the track. Well Frances Gardner had only run here once and had encountered traffic problems, but she sported a sparkling work over the surface. She was far, far back as they turned for home, but moving. Typically the late runners do well at the Lexington oval and here was no exception as Frances Gardner reached the lead 100 yards out and held on to win. The best part - she was sent off at 7/1! The payout of $16.40 yielded me over $40 to start my first day! WHOOOP WHOOOP! Twenty minutes later my next pick was the second at Aqueduct. I liked R King of the Road who was a Todd Pletcher-trained three-year-old. He'd had a sparkling debut win last summer, had a layoff, and his recent works were excellent. There wasn't a lot to beat here. I doubled the bet and he won by daylight! Two in a row! Fifteen minutes later it was time for the 2nd at Keeneland and it was Todd Pletcher at work again. Classic Gulfstream angle: Maiden 3-year-olds. Dr. Chit was exiting a KEY race at Saratoga and had good works ---- WINNER!
Working on a streak of 3 in a row and I'm well ahead to start the day I had visions of it being one of "those days" :) In the third at Aqueduct, an overnight stakes, I went with a Euro import who looked to be the lone speed. Sharnberry led all the way to the final fifty yards before giving way to be 2nd. At Keeneland I rallied, too late - 3rd. Calder.......pressed the pace, second best. Off the board at both Aqueduct and Keeneland, but now I was ready to roll..... At Aqueduct Winter Now looked to be well in hand on the turf, surged to the lead with ease, but was passed late - 2nd. Call Me Jones stalked the pace in the opener at Santa Anita, went to make a winning move, but couldn't get by the longshot pacesetter, 2nd - again :( Putthebabiesdown stalked the pace at Keeneland and made his move in the lane, but was outfinished in the final fifty yards, 2nd....AGAIN! Finally in the 7th at Oaklawn I cashed a ticket. Astrology, who was a stakes winner at two and ran a courageous third in the Preakness last spring looked to be much the best of this allowance field, IF he ran back to any of his "A" races. He was on top of his game and romped home. Ok, I'm thinking, NOW I'm going to start another roll. Not to be........ 
At Aqueduct everyone was onboard with my pick - 2/5....didn't fire, 5th. Off the board in two more, then in the Grade 3 Count Fleet at Oaklawn Apriority was making a winning move, in spite of going six wide on the turn for home. But through the lane he kept drifting wider and wider.....lost by less than 1/2 a length....wow. Nicole H who had won six in a row over New York tracks, including this race (the Grade 2 Distaff Handicap) last year, rode the rails to the lead while the favorite, It's Tricky, was four wide. Home free - hung and finished off the board. Calder Derby I made a middle move, faded. Aqueduct turf - way, WAY back......late wide rally, just missed. Nothing out of my next two. Too late in the Grade 3 Shakertown at Keeneland with a longshot; and nothing from the next two....sigh.....wow....... In the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap I went with Donn winner Hymn Book and ignored the "wise guy" horse - I ran 4th, the horse everyone talked about won and paid $9.....ugh.
Finally........ended the day on a bright note. The Grade 1 Blue Grass "featured" Juvenile champion Hansen. I have not ever been a fan of his and this spot in particular I thought he looked vulnerable. All his previous races - even his loss in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream (where I had tabbed the winner!) had seen him loose on an easy lead. But today there were a least four others who figured to show speed. So I went with Dullahan who was a late runner AND had the added advantage of having closed from well back in the Grade 1 Breeders' Futurity going two turns HERE last fall! The gates opened and for some reason ALL the other speed horses took back. Are you kidding me! Hansen loose on an easy lead again. If I could have traded my ticket in for a ticket on Hansen as they hit the far turn I probably would have traded. But I noticed jockey Kent Desormeaux was kicking Dullahan into gear, and smartly was NOT going to take a wide path. He weaved through traffic, and as they hit the top of the lane he had all the momentum. The only question was did he have enough time? I could tell at the 16th pole I was going to run him down, and he did in the final yards! Y-E-S!!!!! And it was my BEST of the day at Keeneland. I had tripled the bet and Dullahan went off at a very generous 3/1 - paid $8.40! I collected $63 as I headed out the door. At least I felt good about my handicapping and will be ready to head back next week - hopefully more rested and the odds should be in my favor as I am obviously below my typical 30% win average.
Friday April 20 - Start the weekend right! I am hopeful that I'll be going to Calder more often than I did over the last two week, but in spite of being retired I've had several meetings, which fell predominantly at the end of both weeks - and especially on Thursday which is "my day" for going to the races during the week. This weekend I won't be able to go to the races because on Saturday we have Game 5 of the Stanley Cup playoffs at the arena with a face-off time of 6:30....having to leave the house at 5:30 would mean having to leave Calder at 4:30 and so I'd have a very short day. Sunday we will be driving up to Orlando and back to take the kids to the Broadway production of "The Lion King." But, with the wonder of the Internet there is no reason to miss a day of racing! So I downloaded the cards for five tracks on Thursday morning and spent a lot of Thursday and most of Friday morning completing the handicapping - I will have a "virtual day" at the track on Saturday. Well, when I checked email on Thursday I noticed one of my favorite runners, stakes winner Romacaca was entered to run. I just assumed it was over the weekend. But today when I was having my morning coffee and looking at the sports page I noticed that Romacaca was entered in TODAY's racing at Calder. It was an allowance race, and as such she appeared - even without seeing the past performances - a huge layover....such an obvious choice! The only "issue" was that today the weather forecast called for rain showers, which are only going to get worse. But I got on twinspires.com about twenty minutes before the race and turf was firm and Romacaca was the favorite. She rolled home easily with my triple investment! WHOOO HOOO, easy money!
Saturday April 21 This has been the MOST REMARKABLE and UNBELIEVABLE year so far! No one could be more appreciative than I at my good fortune in this, my first year of retirement. And today was no exception - if it were a "normal" spring Saturday I would have made my way to Calder and watched the Stanley Cup playoffs on television. But today OUR FLORIDA PANTHERS were hosting a critical Game 5 and we had tickets! So, that means racing goes to the sidelines.....but through the wonder of the Internet and twinspires.com I was able to "spend the day" at the track virtually. I had handicapped Calder, Aqueduct, Keeneland, Woodbine, and Santa Anita for today knowing that I would only be able to go through the afternoon races and have to watch the later races on racereplays.com.
The first "issue" was that since it had rained on Friday all races scheduled for the grass at Calder were on the main track. This was especially disappointing with the "big race" being one of the few graded stakes at Calder, the Grade 3 Miami Mile. I felt bad not only for fans like me who would have enjoyed the contest on a yielding turf, but there were horses who had shipped or stayed for this race, and some "name" jockeys who were in town to ride for it. Disappointing.
But the racing started with a maiden claimer at Calder where I had a nice price of 3/1, but was second. I missed at Aqueduct, and then as was the case throughout the day at Woodbine I could not bring home the odds-on favorite at 4/5 in my first double investment.
In the third at Calder I had my first winner when Penitant Prayers ran away from the field. Ironically I had played Penitant Prayers last Saturday and he'd rallied to late to be third. So his return in just a week was a bit of a concern, but when I handicapped the races I took note that his trainer was 27% with runners returning on short rest - and I was also encouraged that last week was the first off the claim; so I figured he knew he had a runner ready for his best and he fired today. He was bet down significantly, but I was glad to start cashing tickets. I had another fair price at Keeneland at 3/1 and ran second AGAIN.........grrrrrrr.
In the 4th at Aqueduct it was their "co-feature," a listed stakes race - the Northern Willy Stakes. This one-turn mile race saw my filly, Miss Valentire head up the backstretch way, WAY back. So far back that as they hit the turn she wasn't in the tv picture. But then I saw her gearing up and gobbling up ground with each stride. Not only did she catch the leaders, but she collared them with better than a 16th to go and won drawing away! Cool beans! Another winner! WHOOO HOOOOO!
At Woodbine I went with what I expected would be an upset selection when Red Eagle had failed to last against several of his rivals last out, but today he looked to get an easy lead. Instead the rider sat off the pace - AND he was the 5/2 2nd choice - before suring to the lead at the head of the lane......only to be run down by the same runner who'd run him down last time. Hey, how about taking advantage of your early speed? Sigh......
But in my next selection I scored at Calder. Trainer Marty Wolfson had an entry and I preferred 1-Latin Rocks, so I was pleased when the other half scratched - WALKED with it over the wet surface. Another double investment score!
At Keeneland I doubled the bet on Star Silouette in a starter allowance when he was making his first start on a synthetic surface after winning three in a row on the grass. He was listed as the favorite, but with post nine in an 8 1/2 furlong race and the turf races I thought I'd get a fair price.....instead he was the short priced favorite. I was NOT feeling good when jockey Julien Leparoux took him WELL off the pace - flashbacks to earlier today when Miss Valentine was out of the picture! And just like that filly, Star Silouette was just FLYING as they turned for home and he blew by the leaders and won motored down!
I KNEW I was about to go on a roll as the next five selections had three triple investment runners and though four of the five looked to be the favorite, they all looked really solid to win. What a great way to wrap up the live racing and head to the hockey game! But then Carson Hall closed too late at Aqueduct, SECOND AGAIN. A Todd Pletcher maiden at Calder stalked a hot pace into the far turn at Calder......then stopped like he was shot :( Inspired had won three straight stakes races on the front end in turf sprints. She was allowed to go off at a delicious 9/5 and led handily into the Keeneland stretch under John Velasquez......only to be run down by THREE other runners inside the final fifty yards. WOW. Stirred Up looked to benefit from a hot pace in the Grade 2 Jerome Handicap at a one-turn mile at Aqueduct - too late, third. And finally Marked In Stone was ALL ALONE on the front end at Woodbine. At 1-2 everyone saw what I did, but she caved in the final 16th in spite of setting very moderate fractions.......third. SIGH......... Well, if I had to choose between scoring in those races or having a BIG win in the Stanley Cup playoffs I would have taken the Cup win. The game featured the biggest and loudest crowd in the history of the arena (19,500 screaming fans, including yours truly!). It was an intense 1-1 game with six minutes to go before we go an insurance goal and then an empty netter to bring down the house and torrential pouring of rats onto the ice. I was hoarse from cheering/screaming as we headed for home with our Florida Panthers taking a 3 to 2 lead in the quarterfinal matchup! GO CATS!
There were six races left for me to watch once we got home. Without going through the big sob story, let me just say that I had TWO runner-up finishes....wow and three off-the-board finishes. But the race that left me feeling pretty good about myself as a handicapper at the end of the day, in spite of losing a little for the day, came in the co-feature at Santa Anita, the Grade 3 San Simeon Handicap. This is closing weekend at Santa Anita and that means no more down the hill turf sprints until next fall when Santa Anita gears up for the Breeders' Cup and I SHOULD be there! Well, the first thing about the race today was that Compari was running. And from the get-go of his career I have NEVER been a fan of his. He's beaten me on a couple of occassions, but I just do not think he's as good as everyone else does. So when I got my Daily Racing Form "Watch" email that he was entered I knew I'd be looking for an alternative. As I scrolled through the past performances there was the old veteran California Flag. This guy has always loved the Santa Anita turf course, and he'd made a living racing down the hill. In 2009 he had scored in the Grade 3 Morvich and had been my top choice in that fall's Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. Even though he'd been a luke-warm favorite, he paid $6.80 that day and I cashed :) Since then he had been way off form. In August 2010 I had tabbed him in a listed stakes - tons the class of the race - and he'd won in a four way photo.....whew! But after that he'd been so far off form that I had not backed him. Flash forward to last October. He was entered in the Grade 3 Morvich again, and I had goine against him to back the favorite that day. Well, I should have known as that day was his first try down the hillside since the Breeders' Cup score nearly two years earlier and he again showed his fondness for the course - beating me at a whopping overlaid price of better than 6/1. Off that apparent revival of form his connections sent him to Louisiville to try a five furlong, flat course BC Sprint - and again he was miserable. Back to the sidelines.........until today. So, as I looked over the entries there was one thing I was convinced of --> Compari would NOT win. As I looked through the other runners, I didn't see anyone who looked like a solid play, or who had a good angle to hang my hat on. But as I looked at California Flag I was drawn to him for three big reasons......... (1) California Flag appeared to be THE front runner in the field and looked to get loose on the lead; (2) the fact that he had not been back on this course until his last this past October indicated to me that he stood a very big chance to run big today, and (3) his odds looked to be tempting, especially with Compari drawing a lot of support. As I clicked on the tab to watch the replay I smiled because in the final odds California Flag had gone off at not the 7/2 morning line odds, but he'd been allowed to go off at 5.9-to-1, nearly identical to his 6/1 odds when he stunned the Morvich field in the fall.........
Because the races down the hill take a slight bend to the right half way down the hill - the only course in America with a right-handed turn by the way - it is kind of an advantage to have an outside post if you have speed......you can move to the "inside" on the right and save ground, then as you come out of the turn you angle to the "other inside" as you turn back left into the lane. Well, California Flag had the six hole and with the first three strides out of the gate he was two clear of the field. Uh oh, I thought - HERE WE GO! He sprinted even further into the lead as they came down the hill through the right and then left handed bends, and as they turned for home he was open lengths in front and looked to be well within himself. Compari was running late, but no one closed on California Flag! I clicked on the "Results" tab and saw the payoffs - $13.80.......AWESOME! Nearly $70 for me. Great handicapping :)
Sunday April 22 On Saturday as I clicked through various web sites regarding racing I saw that two stars of the thoroughbred world would be running on Sunday. Wise Dan who has really become a star in his last few starts - albeit last fall - and Bourbon Bay out west. Wise Dan had scored an upset in the Grade 2 Firecracker at a mile over the Churchill turf last July and came right back to romp in the Presque Isle Mile - over a synthetic main track. He tried Grade 1 turf milers in the ultra-tough Shadwell Mile at Keeneland with an eye on the Breeders' Cup, but was a good fourth. So, instead of the Breeders' Cup he returned to the synthetic main track at Keeneland in the Grade 2 Fayette and was MUCH the best, then took down the Grade 1 Clark Handicap over the main track at Churchill Downs. He'd been off since that late November run, but in today's Ben Ali Stakes he was (a) facing Grade 3 company, (b) traveling 9 furlongs which was right up his alley, and (c) running over a couse he'd already shown a real fondness for. Looked M-U-C-H the best to me, so I made him my "BEST" of the day (though to be fair, I only had two bets!). He was bet down to 6/5, then even money as they approached the gate, and finally at 4/5 as they left the gate. Breaking from post six he did not get the lead, and was floated about four wide through the first turn. As they straightened up the backstretch Johnny Velasquez had him under a strangle-hold but he pulled himself to the lead after opening fractions of :23 and change and a swift :47 and change. Being wide throughout and making a run at / getting the lead through those quick fractions I was a bit concerned.......but when they hit the far turn Velasquez turned Wise Dan loose and he opened up like a rocket ship......he ran away in a sparkling, track-record-setting performance! And what made this even cooler was that we were in Orlando to take the "kids" to the live Broadway performance of "The Lion King" (it was one of their Christmas presents) - and so I made the bet and watched the race live....... ALL ON MY iPHONE! Technology, WOW!
The show was spectacular and everyone had a great time! We were on the I-4 by 9:30 pm and arrived back in Ft. Lauderdale a little after 12:30 am. I was - as always - wound up from the drive, so I went to my computer and opened up racereplays.com to watch the Grade 2 San Juan Capistrano. Bourbon Bay's "thing" is turf marathons. Anything that is over 1 1/8 mile is what he likes, and the longer the better. And if the truth were known, if they are run at Santa Anita, even more the better. Well, the San Juan Capistrano was set for a mile and three quarters - AT Santa Anita! I had doubled the bet on him. His reputation preceeded him and he was sent off at even money. But as they came down the hill and entered the stretch Bourbon Bay steadily dropped back....farther, and farther! I knew he was able to stalk or close from well off the pace, but he was way, W-A-Y back.....so much like the two winners on Saturday. But as they hit the far turn he still was very much OUT of contention. But as they straightened for home he found a new gear. He was inhaling the distance between he and the tiring front-runner, but time was running out. As they hit the wire together it appeared to me that in the final fraction of a head bob his nose was down first. Even track announcer Trevor Denman said the same. Ironically, had I been watching live I would have had to wait nearly three times the time of the race for the final result. But the final official photo showed him the winner! WHOOOO HOOOOOOO! Two for two :)
Thursday April 26
TWELVE WINNERS! But.....I'd trade them all for an overtime goal :(Today was a HUGE day. I had handicapped to head out to the races, but when the Florida Panthers lost Tuesday in overtime in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup playoffs, it forced a decisive Game 7 for tonight. I could have gone and made it back with plenty of time, but I wanted to not have a rushed day so I played my selections online. It turned out to be a great day of handicapping and racing and an emotional, thrilling hockey game that wasn't over until after midnight!
The racing started with a BANG! with the opener at Keeneland. As I wrote in my analysis........ ".......Todd Pletcher maidens at Saratoga and Gulfstream; Chad Brown maidens at Saratoga; Bob Baffert maidens at Santa Anita - what do all threse have in common? They are automatic WIN bets. But here's another, and it is just UNCANNY when you consider the situation......Wesley Ward with 2-year-olds! Especially juvenile firsters this time of the year. Where ever he runs them in the early spring, they are winners. Here we go again with his "go-to" rider!....." I especially liked Undrafted because there was an "obvious" favorite who had lost a photo in his debut, that meant I was probably going to get a price close to Undrafted's morning line of 7/2. I knew everyone knows about Ward juveniles and he'd get bet down, but I was hopeful of 3/1. I was stunned when he left the gate at 6/1! Within three jumps Undrafted was clear by three lengths and was never threatened! WHOOO HOOOOO, what a way to start off the day!
Not that it really made a diffeence in my betting, but I was a lot more "relaxed" knowing that I was "playing with their money" as the day started. In spite of it being a Thursday afternoon I had found several plays at Calder. I missed on the first two, but then the day took off as I scored not once, not twice, but a winning "trifecta" of selections when Naos, That Certain Look, and Canaima all were decisive winners over the local strip. But the Calder highlight came in the 4th. Don't Tell Patti was my "BEST BET" of the day. And as I wrote in my analysis, this is one of the things that I love about racing: ".......Here's the great ting about thoroughbred racing....the "best" of the day need not be a Grade 1 race highlighting an "event" day, sometimes it can be a bottom level maiden claimer filled with horses struggling to get an initial victory. Patti has earned Beyers in the last three sprints of 52-52-53. These will not earn her a trip to the Summit of Speed this summer, but they are all AT LEAST FIFTEEN POINTS higher than any figure earned by anyone else in the field!
When they were in the gate ready to start she had floated to 3/5, which I thought was stealing, but by the time they were halfway down the backstretch she was 1/5 - which was the price she should have been. She rated off the leader and then halfway through the far turn she glided to the lead as track announcer Bobby Newman called that her rider had not moved a muscle. In the final 16th he shook the reins at her just a touch and it was all over but the cashing of the tickets! Not so much about the money, it's about being right for me. Especially in a "BEST" pick like this where I laid my money down on a bottom level maiden claimer and declared her to be the bet of the day.....and she scored with ease :) I missed on two Keeneland races through this sequence when Street Fantasy, at 20/1, failed to go to the front eliminating my theft scenario and Vee One Rotate came right to the front runner ready to go by, but couldn't get the final push......2nd.
But I was back in the winner's circle in the 6th from the Lexington oval. Melody Dawn had been off for eleven months before returning in a Gulfstream allowance. She had lost a photo that day, but a couple of things made this an encouraging angle to me. First, her speed figure that day was nearly identical to what she'd earned in the past; second, her trainer - Graham Motion - scores with runners making their second start off a break at a 24% ($2.33 ROI) rate; and third, Melody Dawn's up-close running style meant she'd be right up front on what looked like a pretty soft pace. I was delighted that she left the gate at 2/1 and sure enough, I was right on the money again. She was clear by daylight and paid a handsome $6.20. Like Undrafted I was wishing I'd upped the investment, but I took my money to the bank and enjoyed my SIXTH winner on the day.
Lost in the shuffle of the Stanley Cup Playoffs and Opening Night at Churchill Downs this Saturday was that today was opening day at Hollywood Park in Los Angeles. Well, the new "official name" is Betfair Hollywood Park :) And if you have been following my adventures this year, one of my great days (of many, MANY) came on a Sunday afternoon here where Jeff and I spent the day cashing tickets in the TURF CLUB at Hollywood last November. Good times! I was second in the opener at Hollywood and then had a double-investment at Keeneland in the 7th. Don't Tell Sophia was 5/2 with two minutes to post and I felt good about her chances when it was announced there was a late scratch......yes, Sophia :( I thought about playing the race, but then told myself to be patient - good thing, the winner paid $71 and I never would have had her. But the next race on my sheet was the Keeneland feature, a rare graded stakes on a Thursday, the Grade 3 Bewitch Stakes. I really like Upperline's chances. I liked her even more when the "experts" pointed out she was probably at a huge pace advantage over the other "favorites." With the cancellation of my double bet in the previous race I toyed with the idea of wheeling it back on Upperline with my planned double investment. But again, I told myself to be patient and play the game as I'd planned. Sure enough, the pace was beyond pedestrian and Upperline took them around the first of three turns and into the stretch just walking. Then jockey James Graham let two other big price horses go on with it. I wasn't concerned because I've seen her run before and I think she's a more comfortable runner pressing the pace, not setting the pace. And as they turned for home and the late running favorite made her move, she was at a huge disadvantage because it was Upperline who had the best striking spot and she was GONE! WHOOO HOOOO!
After missing in the last at Keeneland I scored in my next two Hollywood bets. Ranchero was a triple investment for me as he had a double-digit Beyer advantage. He was a Baffert maiden dropping from MSW into a $50K maiden claimer. I thought he'd be tons the best, but he had to work from through the final furlong before inching away late. Then in the 5th it was an allowance race going a mile on the grass. My pick Caelis was a four-time runner-up in North America, but she just looked to have the best talent, and I liked the jockey switch to Bejarano to get her to have a stronger kick. Then the race came off the grass. Hmmmm, usually with a synthetic surface like Hollywood's my rule of thumb - because those main tracks often play LIKE turf - is that if the trainer leaves the runner in, I stick to my bet. Before making my double investment I checked her past performances, and she'd run competitively on synthetics in Europe, so I stuck to it. The race played out just as I anticipated. There were three who battled near the front and Caelis sat in the catbird's seat just off them. They hit the far turn and without any effort at all she cruised to the outside of the leaders and ran right by them like they were tied to the rail. She got a little tired late, but she was first.......winner, winner, chicken dinner! In the opening day feature, the Harry Henson - originally scheduled for the turf - I liked an upset pick Senor Rain to run down the dueling pace setters. On the main it shaped up the same. As they hit the far turn the even money favorite blew the turn as was nearly on the outside rail. I moved between horses and at 9/2 looked home free. Then, in spite of being nearly twenty yards outside of me on the outer fence the favorite was JUST up in a photo to beat me. Sigh....oh well, you can't expect to cash EVERY ticket.
It was time to leave for the Panthers Stanley Cup playoff game, but I'd made four selections on the evening card at Lone Star Park. I considered briefly passing on them as I knew I was having a good day and was a profitable winner for the day. But then I reminded myself that I play the races because I enjoy handicapping, not because it is a money-making job. So I made four investments and we headed off to the packed arena. After the game - around 1:30 am - I got online to watch the replays. In the opener Floatnpastya went right to the front and was LONG GONE as the lone speed - WINNER. In my next, a double investment, Canigotoo cantered home at 1/5 as MUCH the best - WINNER! In my next, another double investment, Kellville was easily best as the jockey was as still as a statue until midstretch - WINNER! It was almost a surprise that I lost the last one!
Next up......Opening Night at Churchill Downs and the trip to Louisville for Kentucky Derby Weekend!
The only good thing about the hockey season ending is now there will be no potential conflict with my trip next week to Louisville for Derby Weekend. Saturday begins my "Churchill Downs Experience" for the summer as I make selections every day of their spring/summer meet. Check them out by clicking the logo at the top of the page. The highlight of Opening Night is the Grade 3 Derby Trial.
Saturday April 28 - An AMAZING FIFTEEN WINS!
Today was an amazing day as I scored 15 wins from 37 selections for a profit of nearly $100! Couple that with Thursday stellar handicapping day and my two-day total was an astounding 27 wins from 58 selections - close to 50% and over $160 in profits!
The fact of the matter is that after Thursday's exceptional win rate I gave serious thought to NOT handicapping for today and simply playing Churchill Downs. But then I decided Friday morning that I'd buy the Racing Form and handicap a couple of afternoon tracks. I was so "sad" - not depressed that the Panthers season was over, and tired from having arrived home so late (around 1:30 am) that I didn't think I'd handicap as much. But, before I knew it I had handicapped for Calder and Belmont. I looked at the spacing of the races and I knew that the last track I was handicapping was Hollywood, which would not have it's first post until 4 pm, and with Churchill not starting until 6 pm I knew I'd be bored at the races, so I went online and looked through the Woodbine and Hawthorne selections and added those. I added Hollywood and finally finished with nearly 40 selections that I posted online. Then the weather......Saturday morning it poured down rain and I told Kim that I had no desire to drive out to Calder in the pouring rain and get soaked going into the track. I knew that the turf races would be off and probably several scratches. But by 11 am the weather cleared and I thought I'd head out for the day. I took along the entries for the stakes races on Oaks Day and that delayed my departure from home. So I got to Calder with five minutes to post time...... The first race was a double investment for me and Hertzel wired the field. A good start to the day. I ran 4th in my first selection at Woodbine, but then scored with Large Kaufy at Calder where he was making his first start in 2-lifetime company. He set the pace, gave way, and then re-rallied on the outside. My double investment brought home nearly $40! I scored at Woodbine with Drago's Best, who had been second to the horse I liked in the Derby Trial. He was much the best and I had a TRIPLE investment on him! Then in much the same way Thursday unfolded I had a big score early.....the 3rd at Belmont was a maiden race on the grass and none of those with experience looked formidable. I liked a first-time starter from grass training master Christophe Clemente and he had the top jockey, Ramon Dominguez on board. LC Cinderella went off at 5/1 with my double bet......
SCORE! LC Cinderella paid $13.20, I collected almost $60 and came right back to win my third in a row at Calder when Fortunate Bill surged up the rail to win the 4th at Calder. I finished off the amazing start to the day by scoring in the fifth at Belmoont with another triple bet when No La Hace wired the turf sprinters....another $36 for me. So to start the day I had won six of my first eight races! I truly wondered about going home and not betting any more - I mean what are the odds? I had won 12 of 21 and now six of eight.....could this go on? I missed on two, but came right back with my FOURTH win at Calder when Horse-for-the-Course Bessie M scored in the 7th........four-for-four at Calder!
Well, even though I did "come back to reality" I continued winning throughout the rest of the day! I missed on five in a row, but all were minimum bets until the 8th at Belmont which was DRF Handicapper Dave Liftin's "Best" of the day. Born Flirt just looked tons the best on paper. I tripled the bet - he shot to the lead and was in complete control of the turf sprinters as they turned for home. But when asked for a stretch kick, he just leveled off.....disappointing 4th. I went to bet the 9th at Calder on the turf, but my pick had scratched....sigh. But, I had another sequence of races coming up. The fifth at Hawthorne was a sprint where according to the online handicapper Gato's Pirate, who'd won 10 of his career wins at this track, would be flying late. But as they broke from the gate he went right to the front.....and didn't stop until he hit the finish line! Even when you handicap the race wrong you win if you are on the kind of roll I'm on! At Woodbine Hunter's Bay was odds-on but looked the part. He steamrolled the allowance rivals he faced to score, my second win in a row. Now it was time for the feature at Belmont, the Grade 3 Westchester at a flat mile. And this race had my "BEST of the DAY" in the lineup - To Honor and Serve. I had read a couple of articles at To Honor and Serve leading up to this race and trainer Bill Mott was really high on him, so I "knew" he'd be my "BEST" before I handicapped the actual past performances. But once I looked at the past performances I was not as convinced he was the "BEST" of the day. He looked like the obvious choice, but there were a couple of quality runners in the field. I went to the "Weekend Warrior" article where Mike Watchmaker of the Daily Racing Form had zeroed in on this race. I knew up front he would NOT pick To Honor and Serve because he'd be the favorite. But often times he'll make a comment like, "he has every right to win, and I won't be surprised if he does, but I'm going with a price play alternative." That was not the kind of comments he had for my pick. He pointed out that (a) To Honor and Serve was being pointed for the Grade 1 Met Mile and as such, this would not be an "all-in" effort; (b) that To Honor and Serve had failed to fire off a layoff on multiple occassions; and (c) there were others in here who would make this an "all-in" effort who had won graded stakes at a one-turn mile. His pick was Jersey Town - who I had picked in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. I still listed To Honor and Serve as my "BEST" of the Day, but mentally I thought I would not go much above a "Best Bet" investment level. So after scoring at Hawthorne with Gato's Pirate and at Woodbine with Hunter's Bay I was making my way to the windows to bet To Honor and Serve. I looked up at the board - first the bad news, he was listed at 1-9! But the good news, three of his rivals had scratched. I looked in the Racing Form to see who they were and one of them was Watchmaker's upset selection, Jersey Town. OK, now this race is a whole new kettle of fish! I looked at who was left and to me it appeared that even if To Honor and Serve were only 80% cranked up he was much the best of these unless either he just didn't fire or something unforeseen occurred. I made the command decision to go with a true "Best of the Day" bet - $50 to WIN! As I waited for the race to start his odds floated to 1-5....good. Then to 2-5, even better! With five minutes to post time he went up to 1-2.....seriously? What is the crowd thinking? And then wonder of wonders, as they went into the gate he clicked up another notch to 3-5. Now that my friends is just plain highway robbery! But right out of the gate a 7/1 front runner opened up four lengths and To Honor and Serve looked to be in no hurry to run with him while being patiently ridden in 2nd. OK, this is one of those "unforseen circumstances" - a lone speed steals the race. But when the fractions were posted at :22 and change and :45 and change I knew......To Honor and Serve swept by and simply cantered through the lane dominating the race. My winning ticket (at right) was worth an amazing $80 for the $50 I'd invested.......WHOOOOO HOOOOOO!
Less than five minutes later Report Card easily wired the Land of Lincoln at Hawthorne so that when I cashed my tickets I received a crisp Ben Franklin! ($100 bill!) Missed with three picks, including the Calder Oaks where I was a good third at 4/1. I was just about ready to leave to I could watch the Churchill races at home so I made my three bets for races that would be run while I was on the road home and then made my "BEST of the Day" at Calder, a $20 investment on the maiden Almaak in the finale. How ironic, but as I said on Thursday, the great thing about thoroughbred racing is that your "best" is not always the feature / graded stakes race. My top pick at Calder today, like Thursday was in a maiden claiming event. Almaak was 1/9 when I made the bet, but he floated up to $.30 on the dollar by the time they left the gate. It was a mile and 70 yards and for the first seven furlongs he dueled with a longshot. Finally on the far turn he put that one away and looked like he might get a breather, but right away he was tackled by one of the true contenders. I thought, this is how odds-on favorites lose......drained of their energy through the opening stages and then a contender takes advantage of the situation and runs by them. Could this happen? NO! Not to me, not on this day! Almaak opened another gear and steadily drew off through the stretch and was under a hand ride as he passed me on the finish line as I stood at the rail! When I got home and watched the three replays of my picks I scored with a triple bet at Hollywood when the upset winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Oaks, Willa B Awesome, passed on being a longshot at the Kentucky Oaks and ran today in the state-bred $300K Melfair Stakes. It was close, but she pulled it off and paid an overlaid $4.20. Collected over $30 for my triple investment! 
I scored once more at Hollywood in the Tiznow Stakes. Mobiized was dead, and I mean DEAD last heading into the turn of this 7 1/2 furlong race. But then he began to roll. Jockey Rafael Bejarano lost his whip as they weaved through traffic, but then in a closing kick reminiscent of the great Arazi's run in the BC Juvenile years ago Mobilized went from more than a dozen lengths behind to score by 8 widening lengths. Truly eye-opening! And it gave Bejarano his FIFTH winner on the card. Pretty cool! When I flipped over to Churchill on the TV and on my computer they were in a wild weather delay. You can see pictures on my Churchill site - and when I saw them it so reminded me of when I was at Arlington for Arlington Million Day. Downpours with golf-sized hail pounded the Louisville crowd of over 26,000 fans. It lasted about 45 minutes then it was over. But it cost me three bets......two of them were added money selections, including what was my "best" of the day in the 7th. For the night I missed on my first five picks - I had the winner listed in all of my races on my selections for Churchill, usually the second choice. With my double investment in the 10th scratching when it was taken off the turf I began adding up my totals for the day. I had scored on fourteen picks and was guaranteed to win over $70. I had to wait an hour for the finale, but I watched the news and then came back to the computer in time to see Buffalo River Gal walk into the gate as the 2/1 favorite. She was the only runner who'd never seen 2-lifetime claiming company. This is a solid winning angle and "River Gal" scored! So, I had the meet's first winner and my fifteenth of the day. With the $15 added onto the winnings I moved my final total to over $90 on the day.......a glorious day for this handicapper! 
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